Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Wrath

BOT User Tracking 10/23-25

Recommended Posts

Wow, that's quite a list. I'm getting flashbacks from the beginning of September. This is the kind of weekend from which historically bad openings come from. So, I guess we've got that to potentially look forward to, at least.

 

Edit - Yes, I forgot about Steve Jobs, its added now.

 

Please provide your 10/23-25 Opening Weekend predicts for:

 

Jem and the Holograms

Last Witch Hunter

Paranormal Activity 4

Rock The Kasbah

Steve Jobs

 

Deadline is Wednesday 5 PM EST.

You can post responses here, PM them to me, or post them in the Weekend Predict thread (but I'm only taking predictions from the Weekend Predict threat posted on last Saturday or later, up to the deadline). Thank you for participating!

Just as a reminder, the intent of this is produce a forum-wide prediction for each wide-opening movie's opening weekend. Everyone submits their 3-day predicts (even if a movie has a weird release date, we're just doing predicts for Fri-Sun), I note them all, aggregate the results, and put out some numbers of what our collective view point on the movies looks like, as well as how they compare with predicts from a few other well known sites. Then the next week, I'll compare our predicts with the actuals, see how we did, and recognize the most accurate predictor for each movie.

There's no purpose for this other than fun, and once the spreadsheet is big enough (in a few months, perhaps) I'll post it online somewhere so folks can go through it and see if there's anything interesting. Predicts can be posted here, PM'ed to me, and I'll also pull predicts from the Weekend Predict thread (as long as they are posted Saturday or later. Last Saturday, I mean. Posting the Saturday of the weekend we're predicting for would be totally cheating). Also, this in no way is in competition with the Weekend Predict thread. They serve different purposes and can happily co-exist.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No Jobs?

 

Steve Jobs: 22M

Witch Hunter: 10M

Paranormal: 8M

Jem: 3M

Kasbah: 2M

Oh, you're absolutely right. We used to have 3.5 theaters here (3 real ones of various degrees of crappiness, plus a small arty/indie place) but a couple years ago a new shopping center opened and it included a magnificent new theater. Beautifully done, stadium seating (which only 1 of the original 3 had, and even then it was only for about half its screens), 16 screens (the biggest of the prior 3 was 8) it was extremely welcome. Unfortunately, everyone else recognized how awesome it was too, and over the last two years Stonefield has systematically driven every other theater in town out of business, even the little indie one. The last one closed up in the spring. So, its a great theater, but we actually now have fewer screens than we did 4 years ago, and a much smaller selection of movies. Plus, the closest other theater is 45+ minutes away and its a huge step down in quality.

 

I mention all this because as of yesterday, Jobs wasn't opening here this weekend so I kinda forgot about it.  Please do put in a predict for Jobs, I'll fix the first post.  5 openers/expanders.  Wow.

 

Edit - Oh, *now* they list Steve Jobs showings. Grrr. They took screens away from The Martian to do it? The Intern has more showings than The Martian now. That's bizarre.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Edit - Oh, *now* they list Steve Jobs showings. Grrr. They took screens away from The Martian to do it? The Intern has more showings than The Martian now. That's bizarre.

 

The Intern is 20 minutes shorter than The Martian.

 

Anyway, Steve Jobs aside, this weekend looks disastrously bad. Lionsgate better hope The Last Witch Hunter does well overseas to cover that $90M investment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Intern is 20 minutes shorter than The Martian.

 

Anyway, Steve Jobs aside, this weekend looks disastrously bad. Lionsgate better hope The Last Witch Hunter does well overseas to cover that $90M investment.

 

Yeah, I mean, logistically that makes sense. And from a scheduling standpoint I'm sure The Martian was the film that was the best fit to swap out to add in Steve Jobs. It was just that from a pure BO standpoint it looked odd. 

 

The # of showings this weekend goes:

 

Goosebumps 10

Crimson Peak 8 (including all the IMAX)

Hotel Transylvania 5

The Intern 5

Last Witch Hunter 5

Bridge of Spies 4

Jem and the Holograms 4

Rock the Kasbah 4

Steve Jobs 4

The Martian 4

Woodlawn 3

Pan 2

Maze Runner 2

Sicario 1

 

This is *by far* the widest selection of movies I've ever seen at it. Just realized Paranormal is getting shut out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Compared to prior weeks (during which I think we had a mild run of over-exuberance), we're right in the middle on our predicts compared to other sites. The overall spread on Jem is pretty wide and we're right in the middle and the same with Rock the Kasbah. The spread on the predicts for Paranormal is extraordinarily tight (the low to high range is 10.5M to 12M) yet we managed to fall into that range as well (11.9M). We vary a bit on Last Witch Hunter in which we're a little pessimistic and Steve Jobs where we're a little optimistic. Steve Jobs will be very interesting to see where it shakes out. Our own range of predicts was decently tight, but the other sites have an incredibly wide spread (11.5M to 23.7M) which is unusual. We're on the high end of that range, but we're lower than BO.com.

 

While our end result is right in line with other sites, the range of predicts used to get there was astonishingly wide (2.2M low to 12.5M high) giving a 51.33% ratio, the highest we've ever predicted (previous high was War Room at 48.96%). If this was a normal distribution (which its not), our predict would say that we think there's a 95% Jem's OW will fall somewhere between $0 (well, technically $-120k but that's not likely to happen) and $11.12M. So, we think there's a 1 in 20 chance it *doesn't* fall into that range. Now *that* is giving yourself a lot of wiggle room.

 

As usual, I went through the various predicts (17 for Paranormal and Steve Jobs, 16 for Last Witch Hunter and Jem, and 14 for Rock the Kasbah) and here's what we ended up with:

 

Jem and the Holograms

Mean: 5.5M

Median: 4.6M

StnDev: 2.81M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 51.33%

High: 12.5M

Low: 2.2M

 

BO.com 3.8M

ComingSoon.com 6M

Deadline 5M

ScreenRant.com 

Variety 7M

 

 

Last Witch Hunter

Mean: 11.7M

Median: 11.8M

StnDev: 2.34M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 19.99%

High: 16M

Low 8M

 

BO.com 14M

ComingSoon.com 16M

Deadline 13.3M

ScreenRant.com 14M 

Variety 16M

 

Paranormal Activity 4

Mean: 11.9M

Median: 11.9M

StnDev: 2.93M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 24.73%

High: 17.5M

Low 6.3M

 

BO.com 10.5M

ComingSoon.com 10.5M

Deadline 11M

ScreenRant.com 10.5M 

Variety 12M

 

Rock the Kasbah

Mean: 5.1M

Median: 5.6M

StnDev: 1.69M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 33.47%

High: 7M

Low 1.7M

 

BO.com 4M

ComingSoon.com 5M 

Deadline 6M

ScreenRant.com 

Variety 6M

 

Steve Jobs

Mean: 21.8M

Median: 22M

StnDev: 5.07M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 23.23%

High: 30.5M

Low 12M

 

BO.com 23.7M

ComingSoon.com 16M 

Deadline 11.5M

ScreenRant.com 

Variety 17M

Link to comment
Share on other sites



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.