Wrath Posted October 20, 2015 Posted October 20, 2015 (edited) Wow, that's quite a list. I'm getting flashbacks from the beginning of September. This is the kind of weekend from which historically bad openings come from. So, I guess we've got that to potentially look forward to, at least. Edit - Yes, I forgot about Steve Jobs, its added now. Please provide your 10/23-25 Opening Weekend predicts for: Jem and the Holograms Last Witch Hunter Paranormal Activity 4 Rock The Kasbah Steve Jobs Deadline is Wednesday 5 PM EST.You can post responses here, PM them to me, or post them in the Weekend Predict thread (but I'm only taking predictions from the Weekend Predict threat posted on last Saturday or later, up to the deadline). Thank you for participating!Just as a reminder, the intent of this is produce a forum-wide prediction for each wide-opening movie's opening weekend. Everyone submits their 3-day predicts (even if a movie has a weird release date, we're just doing predicts for Fri-Sun), I note them all, aggregate the results, and put out some numbers of what our collective view point on the movies looks like, as well as how they compare with predicts from a few other well known sites. Then the next week, I'll compare our predicts with the actuals, see how we did, and recognize the most accurate predictor for each movie.There's no purpose for this other than fun, and once the spreadsheet is big enough (in a few months, perhaps) I'll post it online somewhere so folks can go through it and see if there's anything interesting. Predicts can be posted here, PM'ed to me, and I'll also pull predicts from the Weekend Predict thread (as long as they are posted Saturday or later. Last Saturday, I mean. Posting the Saturday of the weekend we're predicting for would be totally cheating). Also, this in no way is in competition with the Weekend Predict thread. They serve different purposes and can happily co-exist. Edited October 20, 2015 by Wrath 1 Quote
WrathOfHan Posted October 20, 2015 Posted October 20, 2015 No Jobs? Steve Jobs: 22M Witch Hunter: 10M Paranormal: 8M Jem: 3M Kasbah: 2M 1 Quote
DAJK Posted October 20, 2015 Posted October 20, 2015 Steve Jobs - $24.6M Witch Hunter - $11.8M Kasbah - $4.4M Jem - $5.2M Paranormal 5 - $12.2M Quote
Ethan Hunt Posted October 20, 2015 Posted October 20, 2015 Steve Jobs: 29M The Last Witch Hunter:8M Kashbah: 3M Jen and Holograms: 7M Paranormal Activity 5: 11M Quote
Wrath Posted October 20, 2015 Author Posted October 20, 2015 (edited) No Jobs? Steve Jobs: 22M Witch Hunter: 10M Paranormal: 8M Jem: 3M Kasbah: 2M Oh, you're absolutely right. We used to have 3.5 theaters here (3 real ones of various degrees of crappiness, plus a small arty/indie place) but a couple years ago a new shopping center opened and it included a magnificent new theater. Beautifully done, stadium seating (which only 1 of the original 3 had, and even then it was only for about half its screens), 16 screens (the biggest of the prior 3 was 8) it was extremely welcome. Unfortunately, everyone else recognized how awesome it was too, and over the last two years Stonefield has systematically driven every other theater in town out of business, even the little indie one. The last one closed up in the spring. So, its a great theater, but we actually now have fewer screens than we did 4 years ago, and a much smaller selection of movies. Plus, the closest other theater is 45+ minutes away and its a huge step down in quality. I mention all this because as of yesterday, Jobs wasn't opening here this weekend so I kinda forgot about it. Please do put in a predict for Jobs, I'll fix the first post. 5 openers/expanders. Wow. Edit - Oh, *now* they list Steve Jobs showings. Grrr. They took screens away from The Martian to do it? The Intern has more showings than The Martian now. That's bizarre. Edited October 20, 2015 by Wrath 1 Quote
filmlover Posted October 20, 2015 Posted October 20, 2015 Edit - Oh, *now* they list Steve Jobs showings. Grrr. They took screens away from The Martian to do it? The Intern has more showings than The Martian now. That's bizarre. The Intern is 20 minutes shorter than The Martian. Anyway, Steve Jobs aside, this weekend looks disastrously bad. Lionsgate better hope The Last Witch Hunter does well overseas to cover that $90M investment. 2 Quote
Wrath Posted October 20, 2015 Author Posted October 20, 2015 The Intern is 20 minutes shorter than The Martian. Anyway, Steve Jobs aside, this weekend looks disastrously bad. Lionsgate better hope The Last Witch Hunter does well overseas to cover that $90M investment. Yeah, I mean, logistically that makes sense. And from a scheduling standpoint I'm sure The Martian was the film that was the best fit to swap out to add in Steve Jobs. It was just that from a pure BO standpoint it looked odd. The # of showings this weekend goes: Goosebumps 10 Crimson Peak 8 (including all the IMAX) Hotel Transylvania 5 The Intern 5 Last Witch Hunter 5 Bridge of Spies 4 Jem and the Holograms 4 Rock the Kasbah 4 Steve Jobs 4 The Martian 4 Woodlawn 3 Pan 2 Maze Runner 2 Sicario 1 This is *by far* the widest selection of movies I've ever seen at it. Just realized Paranormal is getting shut out. Quote
WrathOfHan Posted October 20, 2015 Posted October 20, 2015 Edit - Oh, *now* they list Steve Jobs showings. Grrr. They took screens away from The Martian to do it? The Intern has more showings than The Martian now. That's bizarre. Probably because it's 20 minutes shorter. 2 Quote
babz06 Posted October 20, 2015 Posted October 20, 2015 steve jobs-20m PA5-14m Witch Hunter-13m Rock the Kasbah-6m Jem-4m Quote
TalismanRing Posted October 21, 2015 Posted October 21, 2015 Steve Jobs: 14M Witch Hunter: 10M Paranormal: 8.5M Kasbah: 5M Jem: 3.5M Quote
BadAtGender Posted October 21, 2015 Posted October 21, 2015 Steve Jobs 17m Paranormal Activity 4 12m Last Witch Hunter 10m Jem and the Holograms 8m Rock The Kasbah 6m Quote
Blankments Posted October 21, 2015 Posted October 21, 2015 Steve Jobs - 27.334M Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension - 11.393M The Last Witch Hunter - 10.763M Rock the Kasbah - 6.679M Jem and the Holograms - 3.862M Quote
Truckasaurus Posted October 21, 2015 Posted October 21, 2015 Steve Jobs - 21.2 The Last Witch Hunter - 11.7 Paranormal Activity - 11.1 Rock the Kasbah - 5.3 Jem and the Holograms - 3.0 Quote
PanaMovie Posted October 21, 2015 Posted October 21, 2015 Steve Jobs - 24.2M Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension - 11.91M The Last Witch Hunter - 11.89M Rock the Kasbah - 5.4M Jem and the Holograms - 4.9M Quote
Wrath Posted October 21, 2015 Author Posted October 21, 2015 Jem and the Holograms 4.3M Last Witch Hunter 15.1M Paranormal Activity 4 6.3M Rock The Kasbah 5.8M Steve Jobs 19.8M Quote
Wrath Posted October 22, 2015 Author Posted October 22, 2015 Compared to prior weeks (during which I think we had a mild run of over-exuberance), we're right in the middle on our predicts compared to other sites. The overall spread on Jem is pretty wide and we're right in the middle and the same with Rock the Kasbah. The spread on the predicts for Paranormal is extraordinarily tight (the low to high range is 10.5M to 12M) yet we managed to fall into that range as well (11.9M). We vary a bit on Last Witch Hunter in which we're a little pessimistic and Steve Jobs where we're a little optimistic. Steve Jobs will be very interesting to see where it shakes out. Our own range of predicts was decently tight, but the other sites have an incredibly wide spread (11.5M to 23.7M) which is unusual. We're on the high end of that range, but we're lower than BO.com. While our end result is right in line with other sites, the range of predicts used to get there was astonishingly wide (2.2M low to 12.5M high) giving a 51.33% ratio, the highest we've ever predicted (previous high was War Room at 48.96%). If this was a normal distribution (which its not), our predict would say that we think there's a 95% Jem's OW will fall somewhere between $0 (well, technically $-120k but that's not likely to happen) and $11.12M. So, we think there's a 1 in 20 chance it *doesn't* fall into that range. Now *that* is giving yourself a lot of wiggle room. As usual, I went through the various predicts (17 for Paranormal and Steve Jobs, 16 for Last Witch Hunter and Jem, and 14 for Rock the Kasbah) and here's what we ended up with: Jem and the Holograms Mean: 5.5M Median: 4.6M StnDev: 2.81M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 51.33% High: 12.5M Low: 2.2M BO.com 3.8M ComingSoon.com 6M Deadline 5M ScreenRant.com Variety 7M Last Witch Hunter Mean: 11.7M Median: 11.8M StnDev: 2.34M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 19.99% High: 16M Low 8M BO.com 14M ComingSoon.com 16M Deadline 13.3M ScreenRant.com 14M Variety 16M Paranormal Activity 4 Mean: 11.9M Median: 11.9M StnDev: 2.93M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 24.73% High: 17.5M Low 6.3M BO.com 10.5M ComingSoon.com 10.5M Deadline 11M ScreenRant.com 10.5M Variety 12M Rock the Kasbah Mean: 5.1M Median: 5.6M StnDev: 1.69M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 33.47% High: 7M Low 1.7M BO.com 4M ComingSoon.com 5M Deadline 6M ScreenRant.com Variety 6M Steve Jobs Mean: 21.8M Median: 22M StnDev: 5.07M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 23.23% High: 30.5M Low 12M BO.com 23.7M ComingSoon.com 16M Deadline 11.5M ScreenRant.com Variety 17M 1 Quote
Wrath Posted October 23, 2015 Author Posted October 23, 2015 Just saw Last Witch Hunter. I think, and Im pretty sure the 5 other people in the theater would agree with me, that we're going to be glad we went low. 1 Quote
MovieMan89 Posted October 23, 2015 Posted October 23, 2015 Steve Jobs: 16.5m Paranormal Activity: 13m The Last Witch Hunter: 12.5m Rock the Kasbah: 3.5m Jem and the Holograms: 3.1m Quote
filmlover Posted October 23, 2015 Posted October 23, 2015 It's been so long since there has been such a collectively unappealing movie weekend like this is. Quote
BourneFan #1 Posted October 24, 2015 Posted October 24, 2015 It's been so long since there has been such a collectively unappealing movie weekend like this is. Next weekend looks even worse. Quote
