Weekend Estimates (pg14): Martian 11.4 | Goosebumps 10.21 | Spies 8.06 | Burnt 5.04 | Crisis 3.43 | Scouts 1.77

[Water Bottle]

4 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

THIS IS THE FIRST TIME IN BOM'S HISTORY (1980-2015) THAT WARNER BROTHERS WON'T HAVE A SINGLE FILM IN THE TOP 15.

Yes, we are going by BOM's chart. AMERICAN SNIPER is a 2014 film.

Rank	Movie Title (click to view)	Studio  Filter A24 AaF Abr. AD ADF AF AK Alc Ampl. Anch. Argo. ArtsA Asp. AZ BBC BG BM Bram. BSC BSM BST BV BWP CafeP CBS CDF Cdgm. CE CGld CIE CJ CL CLF Cohen Crnth DFL Distrib. DN Drft. EC Elev. Emr. EOne EpicPics Eros Excel FB FCW FDesk FFS FILMDESK FIP FM Focus FOR Fox FoxS FPE FR Free FRun FSS FUN Gathr GK Gold. Grav. GVN HanM Hann. HF HHF Hon HTR Icar. ICir IFC IH Imag. INDEP Indic. Jan. Kino KL L33 LG/S LGF LGP Libre Lions Magn. MBox MDL MOM Mont. MR MSF N/A OIH Orch. ORF Osci. P4 Pala. Par. PARAIN Part. PBS PDF PFP PFR PH Ply PN PSR Purd. R1 RAtt. REI Rel. Rela. Rialto RTJ RTWC Rum. Sab. Saban Scre. SD SDS SGem SHO Shout! Shrts. SM Sony SPC Strand STX TA TAFC TD TFA TFC Trib. TriS TVC U/P UEP UHE Uni. UTMW UTV Vari. VE Vita. VLA W/Dim. WARX2 WB WB (NL) Wein. WGUSA WinD WMP Yash YNGM Zeit. Zipp. ZKS ALL	Total Gross /Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Open	Close
1	Jurassic World	Uni.	$651,771,446	4,291	$208,806,270	4,274	6/12	-
2	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$459,005,868	4,276	$191,271,109	4,276	5/1	10/8
3	Inside Out	BV	$355,562,000	4,158	$90,440,272	3,946	6/19	-
4	Furious 7	Uni.	$352,786,830	4,022	$147,187,040	4,004	4/3	7/24
5	Minions	Uni.	$334,849,695	4,311	$115,718,405	4,301	7/10	-
6	Cinderella (2015)	BV	$201,151,353	3,848	$67,877,361	3,845	3/13	9/17
7	Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation	Par.	$195,042,377	3,988	$55,520,089	3,956	7/31	-
8	Pitch Perfect 2	Uni.	$183,785,415	3,660	$69,216,890	3,473	5/15	7/30
9	The Martian	Fox	$182,806,753	3,854	$54,308,575	3,831	10/2	-
10	Ant-Man	BV	$179,243,000	3,868	$57,225,526	3,856	7/17	-
11	Home (2015)	Fox	$177,397,510	3,801	$52,107,731	3,708	3/27	9/10
12	Fifty Shades of Grey	Uni.	$166,167,230	3,655	$85,171,450	3,646	2/13	5/7
13	The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water	Par.	$162,994,032	3,680	$55,365,012	3,641	2/6	5/28
14	Straight Outta Compton	Uni.	$161,058,685	3,142	$60,200,180	2,757	8/14	-
15	Hotel Transylvania 2	Sony	$156,004,480	3,768	$48,464,322	3,754	9/25	-
16	San Andreas	WB	$155,190,832	3,812	$54,588,173	3,777	5/29	10/15
17	Mad Max: Fury Road	WB	$153,636,354	3,722	$45,428,128	3,702	5/15	9/24

 

Did WB even try this year?

[moviesRus]

The Top 6 are only represented by two studios, lmao. And also add another Disney movie to it by the end of the year. So accounting for SW, MJ Part 2 will have to beat F7 in order for the Top 5 to have any studio other than Disney/Universal. 

[kayumanggi]

7 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Did WB even try this year?

Everything changed when BVS moved.

[moviesRus]

WB had quite a few movies that could have been mid-level hits or breakouts had they actually delivered and been good/well-received. Like Man from UNCLE could've been Kingsman.. Pan could've been Cinderella. Jupiter Ascending could've been The Martian. etc. 

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, moviesRus said:

The Top 6 are only represented by two studios, lmao. And also add another Disney movie to it by the end of the year. So accounting for SW, MJ Part 2 will have to beat F7 in order for the Top 5 to have any studio other than Disney/Universal. 

Should be another two Disney movies with Dinosaurs and SW7

[PenguinHyphy]

4 hours ago, All about Eve said:

 

I find the Steve Jobs numbers really disappointing. It's an impeccably written and acted film and I hope that the voters in the various awards bodies recognise it for the fantastic movie it is. I've followed its progress on Twitter and I can honestly say that of those who have seen it I can count on my fingers the ones who disliked it. Everyone else can't find enough superlatives to describe it.

 

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but I wonder whether Universal really thought this one through.

1. The title : they must have been aware that the Steve Jobs brand had not been a success with the first film. So why not give the film a different title. It seems a small point at first but I think it's actually quite important. The theory of everything wasn't called Hawking. The imitation game wasn't called Turing. A beautiful mind wasn't called John Nash. The social network wasn't called Zuckerberg. The titles made the films seem as if they were about something more than just the man. Yet they were more biopics than SJ is. 

With SJ the film was set up to stand or fall on people's interest in Steve Jobs. 

2. For a film about a great salesman, the film was sold to the public in a stodgy, old fashioned way. Universal's marketing team did nothing remotely interesting to sell it to a younger crowd or those in the relevant fields. Totally uninspired marketing.

3.  The lead actor - yes, Leo is a bigger movie star than Fassbender but Jesse Eisenberg means nothing to the public and Eddie Redmayne can still travel on public transport in his home city even after winning an Oscar. So the public is not necessarily put off by a less famous lead. In fact Fassbender has a growing fan base. There is nothing more he could have done. He took on a troubled production because he loved the script and put in a scorching performance.

So, clearly the subject of SJ didn't click with the wider public and the dull marketing didn't catch on. Not his fault.

4. The drip drip release strategy damaged the chance of a solid, if unspectacular opening. A film like this needs the momentum of good reviews and festival/ premiere buzz. Both had died down by the time the film went wide. In Europe it will open a good month after the premiere made the front pages.

4. The toxic coverage of sites like Variety and Deadline haven't helped either. Within hours of release these sites were screaming 'flop' for a film which was more accurately underperforming. While much of the general public may not read these sites, word spreads. Negative stories spread like wildfire on social media and people do get put off.

All of those excuses but not one of them is the obvious reason: no once cares for a movie about Steve Jobs, especially when they did not see the original. 

[grim22]

18 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Did WB even try this year?

They had one surprise breakout with American Sniper, but nothing else on their 2015 slate even remotely resembled a potential 150M grosser. Fury Road overperformed like crazy to get to 150M, San Andreas was a movie which I predicted a 50/150 from the time the first trailer hit, so not that surprised there. San Andreas was the only movie they released which looked like it could get big box office, and at almost 500M WW, it did exactly what it was expected to.

The rest of their slate looked bad, and delivered bad (or expected) results. Pan was a major misfire whose failure falls on the studio, Jupiter Ascending was apparently not produced by WB fully (according to THR, they didn't even have any money in the movie apart from distribution). They had some small scale hits like Vacation (100M WW on a 30M budget), The Intern, Black Mass, MMXXL, Focus (160M WW on 50M), and some small scale flops like Man from UNCLE, Entourage which both did badly but could have been much worse. 

BvS moving out of 2015, and Fantastic Beasts taking a little too long to come to fruition (was originally targeting 2015 as well), The Conjuring sequel moved from 2015, along with their animation wing not having anything for this year (Storks moved to 2016 and the Lego follow-ups could not be done this quickly) left them without any major properties for this year.

Of their remaining releases, Creed looks very promising for sure, could possibly get to 100M domestic, Point Break will probably end up doing 47 Ronin numbers and In The Heart of the Sea will crash and burn in its 2nd weekend. If you look at the WB release slate, everything in their slate is basically leading up to BvS.

The 33	Warner Bros.	11/13/15
Creed	Warner Bros.	11/25/15
In the Heart of the Sea	Warner Bros.	12/11/15
Point Break (2015)	Warner Bros.	12/25/15
Fist Fight	Warner Bros.	2016
Lights Out	Warner Bros. (New Line)	1/29/16
How to Be Single	Warner Bros.	2/12/16
Arms and the Dudes	Warner Bros.	3/11/16
Midnight Special	Warner Bros.	3/18/16
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	Warner Bros.	3/25/16
Barbershop 3	Warner Bros.	4/15/16
The Nice Guys	Warner Bros.	5/20/16
Me Before You	Warner Bros.	6/3/16
The Conjuring 2	Warner Bros.	6/10/16
Central Intelligence	Warner Bros.	6/17/16
Tarzan (2016)	Warner Bros.	7/1/16
Knights of the Roundtable: King Arthur	Warner Bros.	7/22/16
Suicide Squad	Warner Bros.	8/5/16
Untitled New Line Horror Film (Sept. 2016)	Warner Bros. (New Line)	9/9/16
Storks	Warner Bros.	9/23/16

Here is an article about it by Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2015/08/20/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-is-sadly-warner-bros-most-important-film-ever/

[Water Bottle]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

They had one surprise breakout with American Sniper, but nothing else on their 2015 slate even remotely resembled a potential 150M grosser. Fury Road overperformed like crazy to get to 150M, San Andreas was a movie which I predicted a 50/150 from the time the first trailer hit, so not that surprised there. San Andreas was the only movie they released which looked like it could get big box office, and at almost 500M WW, it did exactly what it was expected to.

The rest of their slate looked bad, and delivered bad (or expected) results. Pan was a major misfire whose failure falls on the studio, Jupiter Ascending was apparently not produced by WB fully (according to THR, they didn't even have any money in the movie apart from distribution). They had some small scale hits like Vacation (100M WW on a 30M budget), The Intern, Black Mass, MMXXL, Focus (160M WW on 50M), and some small scale flops like Man from UNCLE, Entourage which both did badly but could have been much worse. 

BvS moving out of 2015, and Fantastic Beasts taking a little too long to come to fruition (was originally targeting 2015 as well), The Conjuring sequel moved from 2015, along with their animation wing not having anything for this year (Storks moved to 2016 and the Lego follow-ups could not be done this quickly) left them without any major properties for this year.

Of their remaining releases, Creed looks very promising for sure, could possibly get to 100M domestic, Point Break will probably end up doing 47 Ronin numbers and In The Heart of the Sea will crash and burn in its 2nd weekend. If you look at the WB release slate, everything in their slate is basically leading up to BvS. Here is an article about it by Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2015/08/20/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-is-sadly-warner-bros-most-important-film-ever/

So when BvS flops big time, WB is doomed?

[grim22]

Just now, Water Bottle said:

So when BvS flops big time, WB is doomed?

What is your BvS prediction?

[moviesRus]

Tarzan and King Arthur sound like flops too. They better hope their DC stuff saves them. 

[Water Bottle]

Just now, grim22 said:

What is your BvS prediction?

Domestic total? Around Man of Steel tbh. Even if it opens higher, I expect crappy as hell legs.

[grim22]

Just now, Water Bottle said:

Domestic total? Around Man of Steel tbh. Even if it opens higher, I expect crappy as hell legs.

Friendly bet then? You decide where the total line will fall (will give you till 350M). Signature change stakes.

[Water Bottle]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Friendly bet then? You decide where the total line will fall (will give you till 350M). Signature change stakes.

Eh, sure why not? 325M is a good line, I'd say. I'll be screwed if it opens to $200 million but hey, maybe people will really hate the movie. But even with $150 OW, considering Snyder's career performance, I think I'd have a good shot of being right.

[John Marston]

10 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

Domestic total? Around Man of Steel tbh. Even if it opens higher, I expect crappy as hell legs.

 

lolz

[moviesRus]

Even if it's pure garbage, BvS will easily make $350 million domestic. It's Batman and Superman. 

[grim22]

Just now, Water Bottle said:

Eh, sure why not? 325M is a good line, I'd say. I'll be screwed if it opens to $200 million but hey, maybe people will really hate the movie. But even with $150 OW, considering Snyder's career performance, I think I'd have a good shot of being right.

Done. BvS 325M, you take the under, I take the over. Stakes: Signature change for a month.

[tonytr87]

54 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

All of those excuses but not one of them is the obvious reason: no once cares for a movie about Steve Jobs, especially when they did not see the original. 

And people cared about Mark Zuckerberg, which grossed over 90mil? It's more complex than that. Marketing's probably a big part of it. There was barely any of it and the tv ads didn't really try to sell it as anything other than a standard biopic, which it isn't. 

Edited November 2, 2015 by tonytr87

[All about Eve - old]

5 hours ago, PenguinHyphy said:

All of those excuses but not one of them is the obvious reason: no once cares for a movie about Steve Jobs, especially when they did not see the original. 

Actually, I acknowledge this in my very first point. That's why I raise the issue of the title.

Universal should have known there had been little interest in a film about him the first time ( the Kutcher version). Therefore if they were going to make another one they had to sell it differently. And they failed to do so at every stage of a stodgy marketing campaign.

I agree with Tony87trt, it's more complex than just saying people don't want a film about Steve Jobs. Do you think the public was clamouring for a film about nerdy Mark Zuckerberg or Stephen Hawking? But they went to see both in droves. By contrast, the public loved Princess Diana but the film about her was a genuine flop.

 There have been several films and documentaries about Hawking in Britain. The man himself appears on TV shows here. There seemed to be nothing new to say about him. Yet the small team behind The theory of Everything sold this glorified TV movie to the world and took it to Oscar glory.

Much is in the clever selling of a product.

Edited November 2, 2015 by All about Eve

[MovieMan89]

5 hours ago, moviesRus said:

Even if it's pure garbage, BvS will easily make $350 million domestic. It's Batman and Superman. 

Yes, 350m is definitely safe I'd say. It will open at least 30m higher than MoS on OW, which gets to 350 with even worse legs than that film. I just don't agree with any of the 175+ OW or 500+ total predictions. Iron Man 3 performance is the best case scenario I see happening. 

Edited November 2, 2015 by MovieMan89