Predict the WorldWide Top 20 of 2016

[WrathOfHan]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Whatever the big hits are, I must say 2016's mega bombs already appear crystal clear: Gods of Egypt, The Huntsman, Warcraft, and Tarzan. 

I'd give Warcraft one more trailer.

[shayhiri]

1. The Great Wall
2. The Jungle Book
3. Kung Fu Panda 3
4. The Huntsman
5. Assassins Creed
6. Star Wars 7.5
7. King Arthur
8. Ben Hur
9. Moana
10. Gods of Egypt
11. Fantastic Beasts
12. Ghostbusters
13. Alice 2

14. Trolls

15. Tarzan

16. Jumanji

17. Miss Peregrine

18. The BFG

19. Pete's Dragon

20. Warcraft

[MattW]

The 20th movie of each year:

2010 - $320m

2011 - $300m

2012 - $375m

2013 - $350m

2014 - $370m

 

This year it will be between Mad Max at 375 and HotelTr2 at $430-ish, I'm guessing Mad Max or Home will end up being the 20th.  

 

My guess for next year with ranges that are bigger for the ones that are farther from release:

[shayhiri]

2 hours ago, shayhiri said:

1. The Great Wall
2. The Jungle Book
3. Kung Fu Panda 3
4. The Huntsman
5. Assassins Creed
6. Star Wars 7.5
7. King Arthur
8. Ben Hur
9. Moana
10. Gods of Egypt
11. Fantastic Beasts
12. Ghostbusters
13. Alice 2

14. Trolls

15. Tarzan

16. Jumanji

17. Miss Peregrine

18. The BFG

19. Pete's Dragon

20. Warcraft

 

Oh, and before someone questions my list, here's the simple explanation:

 

The Shay doesn't bargain with Fate. The Shay makes his offer; Fate can take it or leave it.

[Belakor]

Hi, first post here.

I have been reading this forum since the original Avengers, but just created this account :D.

90% of you are underestimating Warcraft very much, Warcraft (Word of warcraft) has been played by 100 million players around the world, even if the movie is crap there is going to be some strong performance there.Given the director I´ve to say this movie will be just a fine movie.

btw, here are my predictions:

 

1. Civil War - 1.2b
2. BvS -1.1Bb
3. Dory-1b
4. Panda 3-1b
5. Jungle Book-950m.
6. Suicide Squad-890m
7.Rogue one-850m
8.Ice Age 5-750m

9.X men Apocalypse-750m

10.Alice in W2-710m.
11.Fantastic Beasts-700m.

12.Warcraft-650m.

13.Bourne-430m

14.Deadpool-420m

15.Star Trek 3-420m

16. Dr. Strange-415m

17.Independence Day 2- 390m.

18.Moana-350m

19.Zootopia-320m

20.SLoP-300.

 

 

Edited November 18, 2015 by Belakor

[Safeno Rdz]

On 11/10/2015 at 7:28 PM, Safeno Rdz said:

1. Civil War - 1.4B
2. Finding Dory - 1.25B
3. Fantastic beasts - 1.17B
4. BvS - 770M
5. Deadpool - 750M
6. Star Wars: Rogue One - 740M
7. Moana - 702M
8. Alice in Wonderland 2 - 701M
9. Ice Age 5 - 700M
10. Suicide squad - 680M

11. Passengers - 675M
12. Kung Fu Panda 3 - 665M
13. Zootopia - 660M
14. Doctor Strange - 620M
15. X-Men Apocalypse - 610M
16. The Jungle Book - 550M
17. The Secret Life of Pets - 540M
18. Independence day 2 - 500M

19. Inferno - 485M
20. Star Trek - 470M

My predictions are great so far! BvS will flop hard as predicted, and Deadpool is a huge hit. Also Kung fu panda 3 is very accurate. Zootopia already grossed more than I predicted, but I was one of the few that actually got close to it's final gross.

Edited April 1, 2016 by Safeno Rdz

[MrFanaticGuy34]

5 hours ago, Safeno Rdz said:

My predictions are great so far! BvS will flop hard as predicted, and Deadpool is a huge hit.

 

Umm, dude....BvS won't flop though. It wil easily do over your prediction.

 

It had a huge WW-opening.

Edited March 30, 2016 by MrFanaticGuy34

[Mojoguy]

Apocalypse is going to make less than Deadpool. Just watch!

[MrFanaticGuy34]

34 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Apocalypse is going to make less than Deadpool. Just watch!

 

With China for Apocalypse.....i really doubt it.

[peludo]

6 hours ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

 

Umm, dude....BvS won't flop though. It wil easily do over your prediction.

 

It had a huge WW-opening.

In fact, he initially predicted 668 for BvS:

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20520-predict-the-worldwide-top-20-of-2016/?do=findComment&comment=2266030

[Nova]

6 hours ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

 

With China for Apocalypse.....i really doubt it.

Days of Future Past had China and Deadpool is going to out gross it. No one knows how China is going to react to a movie until it drops. I mean Deadpool is looking at $775-800M by the end of its run. Apocalypse may pass it with China but I'd bet on it not passing it and grossing around $700M. 

[peludo]

9 minutes ago, Nova said:

Days of Future Past had China and Deadpool is going to out gross it. No one knows how China is going to react to a movie until it drops. I mean Deadpool is looking at $775-800M by the end of its run. Apocalypse may pass it with China but I'd bet on it not passing it and grossing around $700M. 

Apocalypse should gross over $200m just in China...

 

Anyway, and no matters what happens. Deadpool making something close to 800 WITHOUT CHINA is just incredible 

[Nova]

7 minutes ago, peludo said:

Apocalypse should gross over $200m just in China...

 

Anyway, and no matters what happens. Deadpool making something close to 800 WITHOUT CHINA is just incredible 

And without 3D...I always like throwing that in there lol 

[cannastop]

17 minutes ago, peludo said:

Apocalypse should gross over $200m just in China...

 

Anyway, and no matters what happens. Deadpool making something close to 800 WITHOUT CHINA is just incredible 

How can you possibly know that?

[peludo]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

How can you possibly know that?

Take a look at the China thread. Experts have been talking there about 1.2-1.3 billion Yuan for Apocalypse which means, with current exchange rate, 185-200 million dollars. Days of the Future Past already did $120m 2 years ago. With the incredible expansion of the market, $200m is not as difficult as it seems.

[Safeno Rdz]

On 3/30/2016 at 4:33 AM, peludo said:

In fact, he initially predicted 668 for BvS:

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20520-predict-the-worldwide-top-20-of-2016/?do=findComment&comment=2266030

I always tought it would be a huge flop, just changed a little bit my mind about how much it would be... but so far it's having really bad legs so I could just miss for a few dollars.

[Kalo]

I never predicted in here? huh.

1. Captain America: Civil War $465m/$750m/$1b,215m
2. Star Wars Rogue One: $450m/$750m/$1b,200m
3. Finding Dory $415m/$650m/$1b,075m
4. Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice $365m/$600m/$965m
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them $270/$650m/$920m
6. Zootopia $305m/$555m/$860m
7. Independence Day 2 $235/$625m/$860m
8. The Jungle Book $225m/600m/$825m
9. Alice Through the Looking Glass $167/$650m/$817m
10. Moana $280/$500m/$780m
11. Deadpool $362m/$415m/$777m
12. Ice Age: Collision Course $110m/$650m/$765m
13. X-Men: Apocalypse $220m/$530/$750m
14. Suicide Squad $320m/$350m$670m
15. The Secret Life of Pets $220m/$430m/$650m
16. The Mermaid $3.5m/$556.5m/$560m
17. Doctor Strange $210/$315m/525m
18. The Legend of Tarzan $150/$350m/$500m
19. Jason Bourne $240m/$250m/$490m
20. Warcraft $115m/$335m/$450m

Edited April 1, 2016 by Kalo

[peludo]

2 hours ago, Safeno Rdz said:

I always tought it would be a huge flop, just changed a little bit my mind about how much it would be... but so far it's having really bad legs so I could just miss for a few dollars.

Yes, a few dollars... about 300 million. I think I have it on my pocket right now.

[Safeno Rdz]

On 3/31/2016 at 0:11 AM, peludo said:

Yes, a few dollars... about 300 million. I think I have it on my pocket right now.

It will not make more than a billion... at most I was mistaken for about 200 million... which is more close to the actual gross than most overpredictions.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

On ‎2015‎-‎11‎-‎09 at 6:35 PM, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

1. Finding Dory = 1.45B WW

2. CA: CW = 1.4B WW

3. BvS = 1.3B WW

4. SW: Rogue One = 1.1B WW

5. KFP3 = 1.07B WW

6. Fantastic Beasts = 1B WW

7. IA5 = 975M WW

8. Independence Day 2 = 960M WW

9. X-Men: Apocalypse = 890M WW

10. Alice 2 = 810M WW 

11. Moana = 801M WW

12. Suicide Squad = 770M WW

13. Star Trek: Beyond = 730M WW

15. Zootopia = 701M WW

16. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 = 670M WW

17. The Jungle Book = 665M WW

17. Doctor Strange = 640M WW

18. The Secret Life of Pets = 635M WW

19. Bourne 5 = 550M WW

20. Angry Birds Movie/ Trolls = 520M-540 WW

 

Great club, btw.

 

Actual Top 10 Worldwide so far.

 

1. CA: CW = $1.152B WW (Yeah, kinda overestimated it, but still #1 of the year.)

2. Zootopia = $1.023B WW (This......i underestimated it's appeal very much, but i'm glad it did better than i thought.)

3. The Jungle Book = $947M WW (Another one i underestimated.....i knew it was gonna be big......but not THIS big.)

4. Finding Dory = $897M (so far) (Pretty overestimated it's OS-gross, but hey....it's still running and could get to the $1B-mark. Thank god it is the #1 DOM of 2016, so far.)

5. Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice = $872M WW (This one was pretty overestimated. I guess negative WOM played a part to this movie.)

6. Deadpool = $782M WW  (Massively underestimated it before release....as i didn't think it was gonna do as well as some people thought. Guess i was wrong)

7. The Secret Life of Pets = $593M WW (so far) (I was kinda right on this one.....but now with it's overperformance....it could blast away my previous predictions.)

8. The Mermaid = $553M WW (Did not have this on my predictions list....so it came of as a surprise.)

9. X-Men: Apocalypse = $539M WW (Very overestimated. I thought the China-gross would be enough for it to hit either $600-700M WW. Didn't happen)

10. Kung Fu Panda 3 = $520M WW (This one......Urgh....I overestimated it's OS-appeal. I had so much confidence in it's box office potential and i thought this was gonna do gangbuster business. Nothing else was a threat to it that January. What could go wrong? Well, when you have OS-markets....foolishly disregard this one and give it lame release slots where it couldn't break out...anything could go wrong. I'm glad the reception and the quality was pretty good....just not it's box office. Now i didn't do that terrible, a $520M WW is not that much to be ashamed of. It's just that China performed way less than expected for this movie.)

 

 

As for the rest:

 

Independence Day 2 = $382M WW (so far) (Overestimated it's OS-appeal and that it would do in the same line as Emmerich's other movies like 2012 & The Day After Tomorrow.)

 

Alice Through the Looking Glass = $292M WW (Pretty high on it's OS-appeal. I thought it would do a bit better despite the reception of the first one......i guess lack of marketing and faith put this movie lower than expected....and no, we shouldn't just blame it on Johnny Depp, here.)

 

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows = $239M WW (Not the box office-failure, that people are making out to be....but not a very good WW-performance either. I thought it would act like Transformers 2: Revenge of the Fallen.....where despite what some people thought of the first one.....it would be critic-proof, right. Well......it worked for the robots.....but sadly not for the pizza-loving Turtles.)

 

Ice Age 5 = $306M WW (so far) While not a definate WW-bomb, perse.....(It will make it's money back)......it's still had a pretty disappointing box-office run.....particularly DOM-wise. Maybe Bluesky will have a more successful and better film after this)

 

Star Trek Beyond = $211M WW (so far) (Granted it's run isn't over yet.....since it still has China.....it's kinda shocking why this didn't break out more than expected, OS-wise)

 

Jason Bourne = $246M (so far) (Again....has a few markets left to open.....maybe it could get pretty close, depending on China.)

 

The Angry Birds Movie = $346M WW (Kinda overestimated it....but still a big success for Sony.)

 

Suicide Squad = $466M WW (so far) (Granted it has just getting started.....but it could still comfortly get to the $600M+ WW-mark. Shame it won't have China to help it go higher.)