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Wrath

BOT User Tracking: 11/13-15 The 33, Love the Coopers, My All American

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Thank goodness for Indian imports saving the day, though admittedly this weekend was never going to be as weak as the Burnt, Crisis, Scouts' Guide weekend. Wow, that one was terrible. This was merely poor, though we did manage to strike the same spot with lightning twice in a row, or something.

 

The 33

Prediction: 9.9M +/- 4.77M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 5.8M (off by 4.1M, so 0.86 stndev)

Huge standard deviation saves the day, as we missed by a bunch but still had a tolerable stndev despite having the worst predict of the sites. Our range on guesses was impressively large: High 22.1M, Low 3.0M. Luckily for us, it managed to land in that range. WrathofHan (who has been on a roll lately) had the best predict at 7.

 

Love the Coopers

Prediction: 8.3M +/- 2.94M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 8.3M (off by 0.0M, so 0.02 stndev)

Wow. We did it again. I guess its not that hard? Hah, no, seriously I'm going to guess that we don't have back to back weeks with exactly on-the-money predicts again until 2017. You'll note that technically we missed by 0.02 stndev because our Mean wasn't *actually* 8.3M. It was actually the average of all our guesses which wasn't quite 8.3M, but was within $50k or so (enough so that the miss rounded down to 0.0 instead of up to 0.1. Plus, of course, I'm only entering the gross as 8.3M rather than the actual number. Still, very impressive. Best predict was a tie between Matrix4you and Panamovie (the predictor formerly known as Manu2227) at 8.2M

 

My All American

Prediction: 4.0M +/- 2.08M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 1.4M (off by 2.6M, so 1.26 stndev)

Even one of our 3 largest stndev's couldn't entirely save this predict. As I noted before, weeks where our predicts seem optimistic seem to end up being our worst weeks. Like with the The 33, we were the highest and worst predict of the lot. Best predict was Ali at 2M.

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