BOT User Tracking 11/20-22 MJ2, Night Before, Secret in their Eyes

[Wrath]

Drumroll, please!  

 

*rata-rata-rata-rata-rata-rata*

 

And the prediction is that we think MJ2 will make a ton of money! 139.3M, which is fairly optimistic by predictor standards. Though I have to say the other sites seem to be feeling a smidgen gunshy this weekend, with an unusually large number of identical predicts. Also, Variety made no prediction for Night Before or Secret in their Eyes which is the kind of thing I'd expect from ScreenRant, not Variety.

 

Otherwise, its actually a little blah as the numbers and ratios and whatnot are all about what you'd expect. Well, the ratio% for Secret might be a little low, but its not shockingly so. We're significantly optimistic on MJ2, slightly pessimistic on Night Before, and significantly pessimistic on Secret.

 

As usual, I went through the various predicts (20 for everything) and here's what we ended up with:

 

MJ2

Mean: 139.3M

Median: 139.6M

StnDev: 16.11M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 11.56%

High:  195.5M

Low: 115M

 

BO.com 120M

ComingSoon.com 140M

Deadline 120M

ScreenRant.com 120M 

Variety 125M

 

 

Night Before

Mean: 14.9M

Median: 14.6M

StnDev: 3.97M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 26.59%

High: 25M

Low 9M

 

BO.com 16.5M

ComingSoon.com 15M

Deadline 12.5M

ScreenRant.com 16.5M 

Variety 

 

Secret in their Eyes

Mean: 6.0M

Median: 6.0M

StnDev: 1.8M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 29.98%

High: 10.7M

Low 3.5M

 

BO.com 7.2M

ComingSoon.com 8M

Deadline 8M

ScreenRant.com 7.2M  

Variety

[Wrath]

Ugh. I'm out of town and at another computer, and I forgot to email the spreadsheet to myself. Won't be back until late next weekend, so this weekend and next won't be worked up until probably Monday.

 

After I get back I'll start looking into posting the spreadsheet online in some fashion. Its time.

 

Edit - Eyeballing last week, looks like we were horrendously bad on MJ2, weak but better than almost everyone else, on Night Before, and quite solid on Secret in their Eyes.

Edited November 24, 2015 by Wrath

[Wrath]

MJ2

Prediction: 139.3M +/- 16.11M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 102.7M (off by 36.6M, so 2.27 stndev)

Ow, ow, ow. Once you factor in the sheer size of the miss one could argue this was our worst miss ever. We weren't the highest predict of the lot, but we were close, with most others clustered at 120M. Best predict was Grim22 at 115M.

 

Night Before

Prediction: 14.9M +/- 3.97M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 9.9M (off by 5.0M, so 1.27 stndev)

Not good, but at least it wasn't terrible. I personally thought it looked good in the previews, but I never quite actually got around to seeing it and I'm guessing that was the case with most of North America. We were a smidgen better than the average of the other sites. Best predict was 10.7M by Panamovie.

 

Secret in Their Eyes

Prediction: 6.0M +/- 1.80M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 6.7M (off by 0.7M, so 0.38 stndev)

Very good predict, though we were in the middle of the pack which generally did well. When in doubt, shoot low, I guess. Best predict was by Blankments at ~6.6M and for the first time ever I actually had to go back and check the unrounded results (including Blankments' exact predict of 6,602,xxx) to determine the winner between Blankments and Spaghetti (and, me. Turned out I was less than $3k farther away than Spaghetti, though the rounding made it look a lot farther apart).

Edited November 30, 2015 by Wrath

[Blankments]

I love when I win