Romania Box Office

[James]

WEEKEND + PRESALES UPDATE:

 

Warcraft seems to have slowed down a bit, compared to The Hobbit 3, but that may have something to do with the difference in screen/showtimes count. While TH3 had a near record number of screens when it opened, the market has expanded enormously in the last 2 years. TH3 had so many sellouts that walk-ins in most of it's locations were impossible. Warcraft doesn't have even by far as many, but it has way more showtimes (and screens available), most of them being 50%+ full, with the evening ones selling out. Plus, there's the fact that TH3 had no previews, while Warcraft had shows last weekend, plus this Wednesday and Thursday, and that might tamper with the numbers a bit.

 

In other news, tickets for Now You See Me 2, opening next weekend, went on sale and the presales are very strong. We even have a few sellouts. Also, even though it officially opens on Friday, it has previews pretty much everywhere starting Wednesday, which tends to happen more and more nowadays. Anyway, the first NYSM went on to be a surprised hit, opening with 47.333 admissions on it's way to a hefty sum of 211.174 (and almost $1.1m ). Don't be surprised if the sequel opens even higher.

 

Finding Dory also opens next weekend, but no news on its presales yet. Honestly, I have no clue what to expect from this one. Finding Nemo bombed in 2003 and it's 2012 3D re-release didn't fare much better. But who knows. 

 

[James]

WARCRAFT OW:  104.898 admissions (8th biggest OW ever) and $601k. 

 

It's opening is essentially the same as 300: Rise of an Empire's in admissions, but in USD 300 opened to $692k thanks to a better exchange rate. Either way, if Warcraft follows that movie (read: a bit frontloaded) it will end up with around $1.5m.  

[snitch]

1 hour ago, James said:

WARCRAFT OW:  104.898 admissions (8th biggest OW ever) and $601k. 

 

It's opening is essentially the same as 300: Rise of an Empire's in admissions, but in USD 300 opened to $692k thanks to a better exchange rate. Either way, if Warcraft follows that movie (read: a bit frontloaded) it will end up with around $1.5m.  

 

Which would still be good?

[James]

4 hours ago, snitch said:

 

Which would still be good?

Very good. It might end up in the all time Top 20. But if it manages some legs and hit a 3x multi or more, which most blockbusters here do, then it could as high as 1.8 - 2m. 

[James]

PRESALES UPDATE:

 

After a massive weekend with Warcraft, it looks like we'll have another one. Now You See Me 2 has previews starting tomorrow and the presales look massive, with a lot of sellouts. The first one opened to 47.333 admissions. I have no doubt the sequel will top that. Actually, right now the presales for Wednesday/Thursday look almost Warcraft level.

 

Finding Dory finally has tickets on sales, but it's pretty useless to predict an animated movie based on that. That might've worked for a phenomenon as Minions, but Finding Dory won't come anywhere near that. Making half as much as Minions would be incredible for it.

 

Tickets also went on sale for Independence Day: Resurgence, in 2 weeks, but it's too soon to say how it will fare.

[James]

PRESALES UPDATE 2:

 

Now You See Me 2 is still going strong. I'd say at lest 70.000 adm OW. It could go higher.

 

Finding Dory is barely registering. Maybe it will have strong walk-ins, like most animated movies do, but for now I am doubtful.  

 

 

[James]

MONDAY UPDATE:

Huge day today (Monday) for pretty much everything, but especially Now You See Me 2. Thanks to the bank holiday everybody is off work and BO wise it's like we have an extra day of weekend. Sadly, because everyone is off, we won't receive any BO data till tomorrow. Also, I don't know if Monday will be included in the weekend or not.

 

Either way, NYSM2 is behaving like a total blockbuster. I'm might be jumping the gun, but I think it has a chance at 100.000 adm OW. That would mean a place in the Top 10 biggest openers ever.

 

Finding Dory continues to look weak.

 

Warcraft is still doing good business. Dropping less than 60% this weekend should mean a leggy run, considering the OW was inflated by an entire week of previews.

 

And Independence Day: Resurgence, opening on Friday, has good presales, but not as good as I would've hoped. That being said, there's still time for it to receive a boost.

[James]

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE

 

Ok, so, to quote Oliver Queen: James, you have failed this prediction! Like, I couldn't have been more wrong even if I tried

 

- Now You See Me 2 debuted in first place with 54.735 admissions and $255k. And while that's a very solid number, and ahead of the first movie's 47.333 adm debut (in USD though, the first movie has a slight edge thanks to better exchange rates: $263k), it is nowhere close to my 100.000 adm forecast. It just goes to show two things: 

 

1. Summer is hard to defeat. No matter how many times I am proven wrong, every time I see a great Summer slate I get excited, forgetting that Summer is the absolute WORST time to open a movie here.

 

2. Predicting a movie's opening based on presales alone is not that accurate. NYSM2 had great presales, but probably walk-ins weren't that strong.

 

Either way, it is a good result and I expect good enough legs for it. I'm hoping for a $1m+ finish, just like the first movie.

 

- In second, Warcraft had an enormous drop (-78%), but again, that might have to do with the fact that the last weekend was rainy and this one was scorching hot, a fact very well proven by the  drops for the rest of the movies; the smallest drop in the entire Top 10 is -58% for The Nice Guys. All the other flicks dropped at least 60%, with a few going over 70%. Warcraft now stands at $894k and it's locked for at least $1.2m. But that is seems like a disappointing result after it's mighty opening.

 

- Finding Dory had to settle for third, with 22.444 adm and $107k coming from a mind blowing 156 screens. That's the 3rd widest release of all time, after The Jungle Book (189 screens) and Star Wars: The Force Awakens (182 screens), for a movie that is basically a bomb. It's opening is under the one of Brave (42.245 adm), Inside Out (29.923 adm), The Good Dinosaur (27.703 adm). It is ahead of Monster University and Toy Story 3, but those movies were utter bombs, which opened on way fewer screens than Dory. Of all Pixar movies, only Brave and Inside Out were hits, both having good/insanely great legs. Dory has to make it's money before Ice Age arrives in 3 weeks and destroys it from existence (the last two Ice Age movies made more than 300.000 adm each).

[James]

WEEKEND UPDATE:

 

- From presales Independence Day: Resurgence's opening weekend doesn't look that far from Now You See Me 2's second weekend. That is bad news for ID:R and good news from NYSM2. NYSM2 has been going strong all week and looking at next week, on Orange Wednesday, people still buy more tickets for it than for ID:R, which is kind crazy.

 

- The Conjuring 2 and Central Intelligence opening next weekend also have tickets on sale and both seem to be doing well, with The Conjuring 2 surprising. Horror movies are always weak here. I think the horror movie OW record is somewhere around 20.000 adm. TC2 might double that.

[CJohn]

IDR is literally sinking everywhere

 

[James]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

IDR is literally sinking everywhere

 

It is very disappointing. Probably the biggest surprise of the year after Alice bombing in the most spectacular way possible.

[James]

WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE + FORECAST

 

Very late, but this is how the past weekend went:

 

- Independence Day: Resurgence debuted with a disappointing 31.789 admissions (and $233k). And while that's in line with your average SF spectacle movie, it should have went much higher. The original is one of the most attended movies ever in the market. 

 

- Now You See Me 2 had to settle for second after dropping 53% to 25.163 adm, and while that may seem steep it is actually a much better second weekend hold than the first one got, plus it's week days were much stronger. It now stands at $553k and it looks to close with around $1m. Also still has a good chance of topping the first one. Great for it.

 

- Finding Dory eased a light 23% and reached $281k and while that's not great, at least it looks like it will manage to make some money before Ice Age hits it.

 

- And Warcraft had another weak hold (-58%), but it passed the $1m border so it's a hit by any definition. Still, I don't think it touches $1.2m at this point.

 

- The only other movie worth talking about is The Angry Birds Movie, currently on #7 (up from #9 two weeks ago), which enjoyed another insane hold (-7%) and reached a sweet $653k.

 

 

 

This weekend we have 3 wide openers and all look good.

 

- The Conjuring 2

- Central Intelligence

- Me Before You

 

The presales for The Conjuring 2 are insane. Seeing sellouts for a horror movie is just crazy, considering the OW record for the genre is around 20.000 admissions. If it manages to keep up the pace, The Conjuring 2 is locked for 40.000 adm and might even hit 50.000. The only thing that might slow it down is the number of showtimes it gets (way fewer than Central Intelligence).

 

Central Intelligence is also doing very well. I'd say around 30.000-35.000 adm for the OW.

 

And tickets for Me Before You just went on sale (very late), but from what I see it is doing good business. So 20.000+ adm should happen. 

 

 

 

In other news, tickets for The Legend of Tarzan, Purge 3 and Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, all opening July 8, also went on sale, but it is too early to make a forecast for them.

[James]

WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

 

Great weekend, lead by Ice Age's huge debut.

 

- Despite falling in other places, Ice Age remains as popular as ever in Romania. Collision Course, the fifth entry in the franchise, managed the highest opening of the series, with 66.930 adm (and $350k). That is also the 4th highest OW for an animation, behind only Minions (101.889 adm), Frozen (73.854) and Hotel Transylvania 2 (73.103) In comparison, Ice Age 4 made 56.519 adm and $317k, while Ice Age 3 debuted with 65.139 adm and $471k (of course, you have the exchange rate difference).

 

It is important to note that Ice Age is a very leggy franchise. The 3rd movie reached 337.261 adm (5.1x multiplier), while the 4th one sold 361.145 tickets (6.4x multi). Also, Ice Age 3 is currently the highest grossing animation ever, with almost $2.3m, while Ice Age 3 stands on #3 on that list with $1.9m. 

 

That being said, I expect Ice Age 5 to reach at least 300.000 adm and $1.5m (exchanage rates).

 

- In second, The Legend of Tarzan had a very nice second weekend hold (-34%) and reached a great $477k. That is coming after it's very good 39.283 adm debut last week. That debut was higher than the one of Cinderella, Oz: The Great and Powerful or Alice 2, but behind Maleficent and the first Alice. But thanks to it's very good hold, Tarzan is now running ahead (in admissions) of Maleficent. If it continues to hold well it might hit $1m. But a safer bet would be somewhere around $800-850k. Either way, it is a hit for WB. 

 

- Central Intelligence managed to increase by 9% in it's third outing and now stands at a decent $360k.

 

- Now You See Me 2 registered another excellent hold (+4%) and passed the 200.000 adm milestone. In USD it's at a huge $896k and it is all but locked to reach $1m and even beat it's predecessor. Great performance and legs for it.

 

- The Shallows debuted in 6th, with a weak 7.861 adm (and $36k)

 

- In other news, X-Men: Apocalypse crossed the 150.000 adm milestone for the first time in the franchise's history, but it will finish just under Days of Future Past in USD, thanks to a worse exchange rate.

 

Top 10

 

 

Next week's openers:

- Star Trek Beyond

- Skiptrace

- Francofonia

 

Star Trek was never big here (the last 2 movies basically flopped). So I don't expect a huge debut for Beyond. Maybe somewhere around 25.000-30.000 adm.

Skiptrace looks weak from presales. With some luck it might go over 10.000 adm, but I doubt it.

And Francofonia under 5.000.

 

Also, tickets for Suicide Squad (opening August 5th) just went on sale today. It's too early to say anything, but based on the huge number of showtimes it's getting, plus the very early opening for advanced tickets, I'd say the theaters are expecting a big debut.

 

Also, here is the TOP 20 HIGHEST GROSSING MOVIES OF 2016 so far:

 

   

 

***The bolded titles are still playing

 

And finally, with almost 7 million admissions so far, 2016 is currently running 13% ahead for 2015.

[James]

After Star Trek Beyond disappointed last weekend (23.443 admissions OW) and Ice Age 5 registered a harsh drop, this weekend 3 titles are aiming for 20.000+ adm openings.

 

- Jason Bourne

- Bad Moms

- Ghostbusters

 

Presales look strong for Bourne and even stronger for Moms and both of the could go over 30.000 adm. The Secret Life of Pets also has some previews this weekend, that will likely be rolled into it's OW next week and Suicide Squad, also opening next week, has very good presales. 

[James]

PRESALES UPDATE:

 

- Suicide Squad is opening this weekend, with previews starting today and it looks to be massive. Presales are huge. I'd say we might be in for another 100k adm OW, but I don't wanna jinx it. Still, 50.000 adm looks like a safe bet. On a funny note - there's this theater in Bucharest, Sun Plaza, that almost never sells out. There were maybe 5-6 movies, uber blockbusters, that ever sold out shows there. SS is close to selling out in said location

 

- The Secret Life of Pets also opens this weekend and it too looks great. In fact, it looks busier than Ice Age 5, which opened with over 60k admissions. But for now I predict over 50k. Either way, we are in for a very strong weekend.

[James]

WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

Strong, strong weekend thanks to two great debuts by Suicide Squad and Pets.

 

- As expected, Suicide Squad took the lead, bringing in a huge 94.698 admissions and $523k. That's the 3rd biggest OW for a CBM and the 12th biggest OW ever overall (both in admissions)! Some comparisons for the opening weekend in admissions:

 

Batman v Superman - 128.687  

Deadpool - 118.389

Civil War - 87.146

Age of Ultron - 70.118

X-Men: Apocalypse - 53.023

 

WOM seems to be good (8.3 grade on CineMagia - above Deadpool and BvS). But even if the legs are bad and it has the same multi as BvS and CW (around 2.3) it will still end up over 200k admissions and $1m which is a huge victory for the genre. But I think WOM will be just fine and this ends up with over $1.3m. 

 

- The Secret Life of Pets had to settle for second, but it's 44.245 adm and $227k are a fine start. That is below what Ice Age 5, but it is ahead of every other animation opening this year. It is also in line with Madagascar 3 and Shrek Forever After. Both those titles ended up with just over $1m, but were pretty frontloaded by animation standards. Pets will have to develop better legs to get there because of the less favorable exchange rates. If we apply it a Minions multiplier, it would end up with around $870k. But Pets is an original movie with no competition up ahead so it should hold better. I think $1m will happen.

 

- In third, Jason Bourne suffered an ugly drop from it's OW (-62%) and now stands at a so-so 270k.

 

- Bad Moms on the other hand had a great hold (-36%). It's week tally is almost identical with Bourne's, despite Bourne opening almost 10k admissions higher. Bad Moms is now at 197k.

 

- Ice Age: Collision Course eased 43% and reached a great $897k. It will easily do over $1m, but that's far away from it's predecessors.
 

- Star Trek Beyond continued it's downward spiral after another meh hold (-52%). Total is an equally meh 300k.

 

- The Legend of Tarzan also got hit by competition (-50%), but it's total is a mighty $751k. 

 

- Ghostbusters collapsed from it's OW (-68%). That's almost as hilariously bad as it's 100k cume so far. 

 

- Now You See Me 2 had once again the best drop from the holdovers, down only 31%. It now reached a fantastic $1.03m and 233.726 admissions.

 

- Central Intelligence closes the top, after a 49% drop to reach a good $490k.

 

Top 10

 

[James]

WEEKLY UPDATE:

 

- It's Orange Wednesday today (basically like Cheap Tuesday in the US) and things are going crazy for all movies, but especially for Suicide Squad. It has so many sellouts that I think this might actually be it's biggest day yet. The grade on CineMagia is still steady at 8.2 so WOM seems to be good. 

 

Looking at the weekend ahead, Suicide Squad should hold well, but it will still have a 50%+ drop. For comparison (of course, there are different circumstances to every one of these movies, but still):

 

Batman v Superman (-69%)

Deadpool (-52%)

Civil War (-55%)

Apocalypse (-53%)  

 

One thing to notice is how frontloaded the market is becoming. From last year's Top 20, only 4 movies had under a 3x multiplier from their OW in admissions. This year, only 11 movies so far have over a 3x multi (and that is counting X-Men: Apocalypse without previews). Ice Age 5 will also hit a 3x soon enough. Or maybe it's the fact that there were very few movies this year that really captured the audience's attention. Best multis so far are Zootopia (almost 6.9x), Finding Dory (5.9x) and The Jungle Book (5.3x). 

 

- Opening this weekend:

 

- Lights Out

- Sausage Party

- Hell or High Water

 

Presales for Lights Out are decent for a horror flick. Maybe 15.000 adm OW. 

Sausage Party is still not on sale anywhere so there's a chance it might not even open this weekend.

Hell or High Water will flop. 

 

 

 

[James]

UPDATE 2:

 

After Orange Wednesday I thought Suicide Squad would slow down a bit, but no such thing. Sellouts keep popping out everywhere and entering it's second weekend many theaters actually give it more showtimes than it had on OW!!! That is insane. Those theaters were probably caught by surprise on OW. The week days must be truly massive for that to happen. Can't wait for the Monday numbers. I'm starting to wonder if SS might drop less than 50%. It would be the only superhero movie this year to do so. The grade on CineMagia is still 8.2.   

 

 

[thunder storm]

nice hold for SS (-44.7%). 230.658 admissions after 2 weeks and $1.1M. 

[James]

WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

We just had a ridiculous week, most attended one since February, thanks to Suicide Squad, which is a phenomenon.

 

- INSANITY. That's the only word to describe what is happening with Suicide Squad. After having one of the highest opening weekends ever, the DC movie dropped a light 45%, which by far is the best drop of the year for a CBM. But the big news is it's absolutely insane week days. In the Monday-Thursday frame Suicide Squad sold almost as many tickets as it sold on it's opening weekend (!!!). It's weekly frame is the biggest for any superhero movie ever, despite opening way lower than Batman v Superman and Deadpool.  For comparison, after 10 days in play:

 

 

In only 10 days Suicide Squad made as much (in USD) as Captain America: Civil War did in it's entire run. And the reason is simple: the WOM is through the roof. Suicide Squad still holds at 8.2 on CineMagia, which is higher than comparable titles. Next week it will have tougher competition, with Ben-Hur (which I expect will be big), Pete's Dragon and War Dogs, so a drop over 50% should be expected. 

 

At this point it is a sure thing that Suicide Squad will become the highest grossing and most attended CBM, titles currently held by Deadpool. It also has a good chance of becoming the first $2m grosser this year and it will also be the highest grossing movie of the year if Star Wars: Rogue One doesn't surprise. 

 

- The Secret Life of Pets had to settle for 2nd again, but it's 42% drop is way better than Minions' 61% one. Of course, Minions was already past $1m through this point, but that doesn't take away from Pets great achievement. The latest Illumination flick now stands at a great $486k and it is locked to make over $1m.

 

- Lights Out was the biggest newcomer, opening with 14.215 adm  and $62k which is weak, but pretty standard for the genre.

 

- Bad Moms had another stunning hold (-7%) and now stands at a good $293k.

 

- Jason Bourne made up for it's drop from last week with a great one this week (-17%). Total is a decent $357k and it should inch past $500k by the end of it's run. Nothing to write home about, but not a flop either.

 

- Ice Age: Collision Course continues to hold well, staying almost flat from last week (-7%). It now passed the 200.000 admission border and reached $971k. It will blow past $1m in the next few days and it will be one of the highest grossing movies of the year, but even so it will register a massive 100.000 adm drop from the last entry in the series.  

 

- Sausage Party opened in 7h with 8.921 adm and $41k. That's a bomb right there.

 

- Hell or High Water debuted with 4.501 adm and $22k. Yet another bomb.

 

- The Legend of Tarzan continues it's great run easing only 13% to reach $780k.

 

- And Star Trek Beyond closes the top, registering it's first decent drop (-26%), but the total is a weak $329k after 4 weeks in play.

 

As you can see, all movies had great holds and that's thanks to the extended holiday frame. This Monday was The Virgin Mary holiday and pretty much everyone was off work, but theaters ran at full capacity. Add to that the Orange Wednesday and week days should once again be massive, but this coming weekend expect bigger drops for all movies, as the market balances itself. 

 

Top 10

 

 

Next week's releases:

 

- Ben-Hur

- Pete's Dragon

- War Dogs

- Barbie: Star Light Adventure

- Tudo Que Aprendemos Juntos

 

Ben-Hur is the type of movie that does very well in the market. Anything less than 30.000 admissions for it would be a disappointment. Right now I'd say 35.000 - 40.000 for the three-day weekend frame.

Pete's Dragon and War Dogs should both make a run at 20.000 admissions.

The other two movies will open under 10.000. 

 

 

Top 20 Highest Grossing Movies of 2016:

 

 

***The bolded titles are still playing

 

2016 is running 16.5% ahead of 2015 through the same point.