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BOX-OFFICE FORECAST - 3rd PART OF 2016

 

After an incredible start for the year and a slow 2nd PART, let's take a look at the final 4 months and the biggest (potential) movies.

 

SEPTEMBER

April currently holds the record for the weakest month of the year, but September might actually take that title. There is no guaranteed big hit! My guess is that the battle for the no. 1 will be between Miss Peregrine, Storks and Sully. I actually see no title going over 150.000 admissions which would be a first in 2016.

 

OCTOBER

October looks a bit stronger but not by much. Still, I bet on Inferno to be a big hit. The Da Vinci Code was the highest grossing movie of 2006, while Angels & Demons was #11 in 2009 (#7 in admissions). I think Inferno has a chance at $1m (and over 200.000 admissions). Other titles that have a (SLIGHT) chance at 150.000 admissions are The Girl on the Train and A Monster Calls.

 

NOVEMBER

November is generally a pretty strong month and this year is no exception. 

We start strong, with Doctor Strange, which should be able to top 150.000 admissions.

 

The next weekend we have Arrival which might surprise considering we didn't have the usual big Sci-Fi Fall tentpole this year (Gravity, The Martian, Interstellar). but it all depends on the marketing. I'm gonna be ballsy and predict over 175.000 admissions.    

 

Then Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them arrives. No Harry Potter movie has ever topped $1m, but DH2 came very close back in 2011 (and was #10 for the year). But that's not really surprising. The market exploded in the last 3-4 years and 2016 looks to be double in terms of admissions compared to 2011. And most Potter movies ended up in Top 10 of their respective years. So Fantastic Beasts should have a nice chance at $1m, even with a less favorable exchange rate. 

 

And finally, we have Moana, which could also challenge $1m.

 

So we have 4 titles with $1m potential. If all should hit that mark that would be a new monthly record.

 

DECEMBER

And now the biggest month of the year (or second biggest - January is getting bigger and bigger). That being said, the first half is quite empty, which might be a good thing, considering the crowded November. It will allow for some late legs for the holdovers. 

 

On December 16 we have Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which is the only movie left that has a shot at being the highest grossing title of the year. Star Wars: The Force Awakens is currently the second biggest movie ever, at $3.25m. It was also the second most attended movie of 2015, with 601.242 admissions, behind only Furious 7's 651.232. Rogue One won't match that, but it should be able to make over $2m.

 

Also on December 16, we have Sing. Illumination is becoming a force to be reckoned with in the market. Minions is the most attended animation ever, with 434.415 tickets sold and The Secret Life of Pets looks to end it's run with well over 200.000 admissions. So methinks Sing will sell over 150.000 tickets, especially with Christmas to help it's legs.

 

We have no big release for the Christmas weekend (which is odd), but on the final frame of 2016 we have Passengers and Why Him? My guess is Passengers will be huge (175.000+ admissions), while Why Him? should do decent business (maybe 100.000+). However, considering the weekend report will come on Monday, January 2, these two titles will be officially considered 2017 releases. 

 

 

So an overall strong end of the year. If these titles manage to resonate with audiences the way I think they will, then admissions could hit the 12.5m border this year (after last year's record-breaking 11.1m). 

 

 

Edited by James
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WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

We had yet another great week, mostly thanks to Suicide Squad  registering another massive frame. All newcomers disappointed to certain degrees. And all in all, August is on fire, way up from last year. 

 

- Suicide Squad retained it's top spot for a third weekend, blowing past 300.000 admissions. It's 54% drop was actually a very good one considering it was coming after a holiday-inflated weekend and after the movie lost it's IMAX and 4DX screens to Ben-Hur, plus a bunch of other screens to the other releases (4 wide releases!). But, again, the story is it's week days. In the Mon-Thu frame the DC movie brought in a huge 60.000 admissions. For comparison, after 17 days in release:

 

dE7AtWj.png

 

In the next few days Suicide Squad will pass Deadpool to become top CBM ever and by Sunday it should also pass The Jungle Book to become the biggest movie of the year. $2m, 400.000 admissions and a place in the All Time Top 10 are locked for it.

 

It is also the leggiest CBM of the year already and by the end of this run it should come close to a 5x multipier, compared to 3x for Deadpool, 2,4x for Captain America: Civil War and 2.36x for Batman v Superman (I am excluding X-Men: Apocalypse because of it's previews/OW separation, but even so, Suicide Squad will also beat that in the next few days).    

 

It's really incredible to think that at the beginning of the year Disney/Marvel had the Top 3 biggest CBMs and also the biggest opening for a CBM and now they lost them all. And looking at the near future, I see nothing but DC dominance for the market. 

 

- Ben-Hur debuted in second but it's 21.079 admissions and $120k are very disappointing. This is the kind of movie that should have done better, especially with IMAX and 4DX. But maybe it will have good holds and crawl to $500k.

 

- War Dogs opened in 3rd with a meh 16.664 admissions and $84k.

 

- The Secret Life of Pets had to settle for 4th after a light 41% drop, but it's cume is now a great $685k, as it continues it's road to $1m. Just like Suicide Squad, it's weekdays are massive, which show it has adult appeal, like Minions had.

 

- Pete's Dragon bombed in 5th, opening to 11.683 admissions (and $55k) that came from a ridiculous 105 screens. That is the 6th widest opening of the year, after another 5 Disney movies lol. A lot of these movies would've been even bigger bombs without the absolutely stupid number of screens. But oh well.   

 

- And the last wide release, Barbie: Star Light Adventure, began it's run with 6.267 admissions and $25k, which is actually almost double than what the last Barbie movie opened to.  

 

- Ice Age: Collision Course dropped 43% and finally passed the $1m border. And while undoubtedly a success, the fact that it will end it's run with less than $1.2m means a huge fall from it's predecessors.  

 

- Sausage Party was down 50% from it's opening weekend (still a bomb), while Lights Out closes the top after a huge 68% drop.

 

Top 10

 

lZ5M5SF.png

 

Next week's releases:

 

- Mechanic: Resurrection

- Don't Breath

- Marauders

- Nine Lives

- Kiki, el amor se hace 

 

Presales for Mechanic: Resurrection are very good. The last Jason Statham vehicle, Wild Card, opened with almost 22.000 admission. I think 30.000 admissions is likely for Mechanic and 40.000 is possible also.

Don't Breath, Nine Lives and Marauders should all gun for 10.000 adm, while Kiki is lucky if it hits 1.000. 

 

2016 Top 20

y159iO2.png

 

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Just now, chrisman0606 said:

@James Why do Disney Release receive such amount of screens in Romania? 

I honestly have no idea. A good guess is that Disney has a better relationship with Romanian distributors than other companies, just like they do in China. Also, they seem to prefer to use money for a wider release rather than concentrate on a big marketing campaign which seems pretty dumb to me. Yes, most movies will end up not really bombing thanks to the very wide distribution, but it is also very hard have to have a true monster movie that way. It worked for SW7 because the name sold it, but Marvel for example can't seem to be able to break out from it's core fanbase, which is what DC and WB have been doing with their great marketing campaigns. In the end, you don't need a huge screen count - you just need your movie to sell: Furious 7, the most attended movie of the 21st century, only opened on 75 screens. That's what Disney can't seem to understand.  

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WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

August ends on a high note, concluding the best month since February (with over 1.17m admissions), thanks to a great opening by Mechanic: Resurrection and, of course, Suicide Squad (1 of every 3 tickets sold this month was for the DC movie).

 

- Mechanic: Resurrection took the lead with a big 42.875 admissions and $209k. WOM seems to be ok, but with so many movies being released in September it will probably lose screens pretty fast. Still, it should end up with over $600k which is a win.

 

- Suicide Squad had to settle for second, after a 45% drop, but with 357.750 admissions and $1.77m it is now the most attended and highest grossing CBM ever, overtaking Deadpool. It is also the second biggest movie of the year, behind only Jungle Book, which will defeat by Sunday. $2m will happen.

 

- Ben-Hur was down 50% from it's OW, but had very strong week days and now stands at over $300k. It should end it's run over $500k, which is decent.

 

- Nine Lives opened in fourth, with 11.437 admissions and 55k. A flop, but who expected this to do better?

 

- The Secret Life of Pets eased 34% to reach a great $804k. $1m is locked.

 

- Don't Breath debuted with 10.715 adm and $51k. Weak but typical for the genre.

 

- Pete's Dragon was down 42% in it's second weekend and it is still the widest release playing. Total is now a pathetic $131k.

 

- War Dogs plunged 64% for a $179k cume.

 

- Bad Moms registered a 45% drop while the gross grew to a nice $418k.

 

- And Marauders closes the top, after a 2.878 adm and $15k bomb-debut.

 

Top 10

 

KW5xXcd.png

 

Next week's releases:

 

- The BFG

- Collide

 

Awful batch of openers. I will be surprised if either of them touches 20.000 admissions. But we might see a new record for the widest September release because Disney:lol:

 

Things should light up a bit starting from the weekend after this one. Not that we have any particularly strong openers in sight, but because of the huge number of releases. There are no less of 15 movies scheduled for the last three weeks of September, of which 12 or 13 are wide releases. So we will see a lot of bombs, one after the other.

 

 

Yearly admissions have surpassed 8.5m, making 2016 to run 17.7% ahead of 2015 through the same point.

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18 minutes ago, Quigley said:

Wow this is another booming market.

Things are going well. 2016 will hit at least 12.5m admissions and it could make a run at 13m, which would be double the size of the market in 2009. The only thing is that the average ticket prince, despite rising, is still low - around $5.

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BOX-OFFICE UPDATE

 

Sorry for not making no analysis for the last weekend, but I had some exams. Anyway, Suicide Squad became the biggest movie of the year in both admissions and USD ($1.89m), Mechanic: Resurrection continues it's great run, while The BFG and Collide bombed. The drops for holdovers were mostly good and should be even better this weekend, since this is the last weekend of the summer break. Schools go back in sessions starting from Monday, September 13. 

 

This week's openers:

 

- Sully

- I.T.

- Hands of Stone

- Ratchet and Clank

- Sieranevada (local)

 

Sully is looking quite strong and might aim at 30.000 admissions. I.T., Hands of Stone and Ratchet and Clank should be happy if they open over 10.000 adm. The local movie will bomb. 

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I just want to add something before James later this week does the box office Report is that Suicide Squad of course is the highest grossing film of this year, but that it will be the first superhero movie in USD in Romania on the verge to hit $2 million, which is quite an achievement indeed.

Edited by chrisman0606
Adding something.
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WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

Sorry for being late (again!), but I just couldn't bring myself to write an entire analysis. The box office is just boring this time of year.

 

- Sully  took first place, but I seriously overestimated it's potential. It opened with 18.394 admissions and $97k, which is way weaker than Bridge of Spies (32.084 admissions). It is, however, a bit stronger than Captain Phillips (17.557 adm) and Gone Girl (16.826 adm). WOM also seems to be strong which, combined with it heavily appealing to adults, should assure a lighter fall than other movies, now that the schools are back in session. I wouldn't dismiss $500k just yet.

 

- Mechanic: Resurrection continues to defy expectations. It now reached $582k and should end it's run somewhere around $750-800k.

 

- Suicide Squad had another nice hold (-36%) and is now just shy of 400.000 admissions and $2m. It will win the year unless Rogue One surprises. 

 

- The Secret Life of Pets surpassed the 200.000 admission border (209.455) and it will comfortably end up with over $1m.

 

- Ben-Hur is also doing ok, closing in on $500k.

 

- I.T., Ratchet and Clank, Sieranevada and Hands of Stone all bombed. 

 

- Ice Age: Collision Course went past $1.1m.

 

- And The Legend of Tarzan reached it's final milestone: $800k (great result or it!). 

 

 

Next week's openers:

- Nerve

- Bridget Jones's Baby

- #Selfie 69 (local)

- Truman

 

Nerve should win the weekend and it is the only movie that has a shot at 20.000 admissions (which is a bit depressing). It's presales are ok.

 

Bridget Jones's Baby should go over 10.000 admissions methinks. I always see spots for it on TV.

 

Back in 2014, the first #Selfie movie debuted with around 12.000 admissions and had superb legs, finally reaching over 100.000 adm, making it one of the most successful local movies in recent memory. I doubt the sequel will match those legs, but an opening over 10.000 adm should happen.

 

Truman will end up with less than 5.000 adm. 

Edited by James
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WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

Sorry for my absence, but the box office wasn't very interesting these past few weeks. Still, last weekend we had something out of the ordinary happening so I think it is worth to write about it: for the first time since I began writing here, the main story is a local movie. Aside from that, we had great drops for all holdovers in what was an overall good weekend.

 

- Storks took the lead with 25.579 admissions and $123k, which is an ok opening for an original animation. It is actually a better OW than Finding Dory (22.444 adm), but a bit behind Inside Out's 29.923 adm. Both those movies had great legs. We will see if Storks will fare as good.

 

- The Magnificent Seven had to settle for second, with 23.233 admissions and $117k. That is behind The Hateful Eight's 28.348 adm, but Seven might end up higher in the end thanks to Eight's awful legs.  

 

- And now for our main story: two weeks ago #Selfie69 opened to probably the best OW for a local movie in recent memory (25.121 adm and $127k). And this past weekend the movie continued to defy expectations, easing a light 18% to reach $268k. #Selfie69 is the sequel to #Selfie, a highly successful (by local movie standards) title, which opened with 12.648 adm on it's way to 102.026 adm back in 2014. If #Selfie69 continues to hold well it will become the first local movie to ever break the $500k border (or the $400k one for that matter). 

 

- Nerve had the biggest drop in Top 10, but that was still only -38%. Total is now a good $277k and it has a decent chance to clear $500k by the end of it's run.

 

- Bridget Jones's Baby was down only 19% and reached 176k which is a so-so result.

 

- Sully managed another beautiful hold (-17%) and brought it's cume to 297k. Decent for it.

 

- Mechanic: Resurrection continues to be a huge success, easing only 23% in it's 5th weekend and reaching $719k, which is assuring it a final total above $800k. Great result.

 

- The 8th place debut is another local flick: Câini debuted with 15.521 admissions and $31k and while that's far from the heights of #Selfie69, it is still a pretty good OW for a local title.  

 

- The Secret Life of Pets had the best hold in Top 10 (-14%) and finally passed the $1m border. Phenomenal result!

 

- The BFG closes the Top. After falling 37% from the previous weekend it reached $222k. Still a flop. 

 

- Suicide Squad is finally out of Top 10, but it continues it's amazing run. It was down only 25% this past weekend. It already passed the $2m border and the 400.000 admissions one - the first movie this year to do so. It should end it's run with around $2.1m and 425.000 admissions.

 

 

This week's releases:

 

- Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiars

- Deepwater Horizon

- Julieta

 

For now none of the titles look to overperform. Peregrine and Deepwater have a shot at 20.000 adm, with Peregrine most likely to take first place. Julieta under 10.000.

 

 

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UPDATE: The Girl on the Train looks like it will have a good opening this weekend. Presales are solid. Thinking over 30.000 admissions.
Also, tickets went on sale for Inferno a few days ago, despite it opening only next week. That means theaters are expecting a big OW. And presales seem to indicate exactly that. I wouldn't be surprised with a 50.000+ adm debut.

Trimis de pe al meu ALE-L21 folosind Tapatalk

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WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

We just had another great weekend in a string of great weekends. October, which is usually a one of the bad months of the year, is on fire!

 

- In first place we have Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, which debuted with a huge 48.686 admissions and $237k. That is completely out of nowhere. The first Jack Reacher opened to 25.652 adm back in 2012 and it's run was far from exceptional. What is even more remarkable is that this is the biggest debut ever for Tom Cruise in the market, ahead of all Mission: Impossible movies. Depending on the WOM, Jack Reacher might actually have a chance at $1m.   

 

- After it's superb opening weekend, Inferno had to settle for second, but it had a very nice hold (-44%) and reached $548k. It already beat both The Da Vinci Code and Angels & Demons in USD and it will soon beat DVC in admissions too, on it's way to the $1m border. That is a testament of the power of Dan Brown's brand in the market.

 

- In third we have another incredible performer: the local title Doua Lozuri. The local movies have been on a roll this year, with this and #Selfie69 achieving records after records. Doua Lozuri eased a light 20% in it's third outing and now stands at a great $364k. It should easily top $500k and $600k is also likely.

 

- Storks continues it's surprising run with another great hold (-14%). It now stands at $478k and by the end of it's run it has a chance of beating Finding Dory's $631k.

 

- Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children is also holds well (-25%). It's $520k total is great and $700k is not yet out of reach.

 

- Masterminds now stands at a decent $302k. We have no figures for it's admissions though.

 

- The Girl on the Train is also a success. It brought in $330k so far and it should hit the $500k border by the end of it's run.

 

- Kubo and the Two Strings was down only 20% in it's second outing, but the total is a disappointing $95k. But then again, none of the Laika titles were hits so...

 

- Deepwater Horizon was down 41% and reached a so-so $304k.

 

- And the local sensation #Selfie69 closes the top, after a 47% slide. At $555k it is already the highest grossing local title ever by far. It should end it's run somewhere around $650k.

 

Top 10

k34Mc3v.png

 

Next week's openers:

- The Accountant

- Ouija: Origin of Evil

- The Disappointments Room

- Phantom Boy

- Afacerea Est (local)

 

So an already crowded market becomes even more crowded. 

 

The presales for The Accountant look really solid so I think it has a shout at a 30.000+ adm debut.

 

Ouija 2 also has some solid presales. So maybe a 15-20.000 adm opening?

 

The other 3 movies under 10.000 adm.

 

 

Here is the Top 20 biggest movies of 2016 so far:

tQYlRoP.png

 

***The bolded titles are still playing

 

As for the overall year, 2016 runs 18% ahead of 2015 through the same point when it comes to admissions (the number is not as exact as I would've wanted because ForumFilm Romania, one of the distributors, stopped providing admission figures one month ago; they still provide USD and local currency figures though).

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