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Ionut Alexandru Tita

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WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

I know it's late, but here's how the last weekend went.

 

- The Accountant took first place, with a very strong 35.652 admissions and $172k. Adult titles are on a roll lately, but the legs for most are definitely cut by the competition. That opening for The Accountant should at last guarantee it $600k, seeing how WOM is good.

 

- Jack Reacher: Never Go Back had to settle for second, after big 62% drop. For comparison, the last Mission: Impossible title fell only 53%. Still, with $409k after 10 days, Reacher is still in good shape and should close it's run with over $700k. 

 

- Ouija: Origin of Evil had a good start for a horror movie, with 18.159 adm and $79k.

 

- Inferno fell a bit harder (-52%) in face of yet another adult competitor, but it's weekdays were very strong and with $682k so far it still has a shot at $1m if it recovers a bit.

 

- Local title Doua Lozuri posted a good hold again (-32%) and passed the 100.000 admission border. It now stands at a great $447k.

 

- The Disappointments Room disappointed with a $48k start. Because it is distributed by ForumFilmsRomania we have no admissions figure for it, but it should be around 9.000.

 

- Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children continues it's nice run with the best hold in Top 10 (-32%). It gathered $577k so far, already hitting a 4x multi from it's OW in admissions. It should end over $700k.

 

- Storks also continued to do well (-35%), hitting the 4x multi and $524k.

 

- Masterminds and The Girl on the Train close the top.

 

 

This week's releases:

- Doctor Strange

- Trolls

- Hacksaw Ridge

 

That is a VERY CROWDED weekend. 

 

Doctor Strange will clearly win the weekend. It's presales appear to be very strong. Marvel's biggest openers are Civil War, with 87.146 adm and Age of Ultron, with 70.118 adm. While I doubt Strange will go that high, a 50.000+ adm debut should happen, which would be great for the generally-leggy Marvel.

 

I honestly have no idea what to expect from Trolls. Storks and Peregrine did a decent job of keeping families entertained, but we haven't had a huge family movie since Pets. Home bombed last year, debuting with 17.171 adm, but theaters give Trolls a hell lot of shows so that must be a good sign. Let's say 30.000 adm. That would be quite good.

 

Hacksaw Ridge is receiving a more limited release than it's competitors and, as I said, the adult market is way overcrowded. Even so, the presales seem quite good for such a title so I'm guessing it has a shot at around 15.000-20.000 admissions OW.  

 

Additionally, tickets just went on sale for Arrival and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. It's too early to say anything more than that, but what is very clear is how big this month is going to be. 

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WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

Doctor Strange and Trolls top enormous weekend.

 

- Doctor Strange surpassed all expectations, opening to a mighty $493k. Since the movie is distributed by Forum Film Romania and they no longer provide admission figures (only lc and USD), we don't have exact ticket figures, but a comparison with Captain America: Civil War, which opened earlier this year and was also exclusively distributed in 3D and IMAX 3D, leads me to believe Doctor Strange sold about 84.000 admissions for the weekend (the error range should be less than +/- 1.000).

Either way, that is the second best Marvel start ever, in both admissions and USD, only after Civil War (87.146 adm and $511k). It is also the 5th biggest CBM opening ever, behind Batman v Superman (128.687 adm and $691k), Deadpool (118.389 adm and $759k), Suicide Squad (94.698 adm and $523k) and Civil War.

Now, Civil War had awful legs and topped at $1.18m, leaving Thor: The Dark World as the highest grossing Marvel movie in USD still ($1.47m) and Avengers: Age of Ultron as the most attended  one (233.409 adm). If Strange develops decent legs it could become the new MCU champion in both adm and USD. At the very least is should beat Civil War though.

 

- Trolls might've had to settle for second, but it's 69.677 admissions  and $332k debut is absolutely incredible! It is actually the 4th biggest OW for an animation ever, behind Minions (101.889 adm), Frozen (73.854 adm) and Hotel Transylvania 2 (73.103 adm). It is as such the 2nd biggest OW for an original animation, after only Frozen.  

Trolls came out of nowhere and even with the competition up ahead it should be able to at least top $1m. Actually, I see it closer to $1.5m!

 

- In face of huge competition, The Accountant dropped 51%, but it's weekdays were nothing short of exceptional and it now reached $329k. It is still headed for around $600k.

 

- Hacksaw Ridge debuted in fourth, with 16.190 adm and $78k. That is actually decent, considering how crowded this fall adult season was. WOM is also good so it should be able to reach a nice multiplier.

 

- Inferno held well once again, easing 37% for $768k to date. That being said, it now appears that it will fall short of $1m. Even so, it became the highest grossing and most attended movie in the Robert Langdon franchise.

 

- Jack Reacher: Never Go Back had another ugly drop (-56%), but the total is still good: $495k.

 

- Ouija: Origin of Evil was down 58%, which is pretty standard for horror movies, especially after Halloween. It now stands at $143k. 

 

- Local sensation Doua Lozuri registered the best hold in Top 10 (-35%) and passed the $500k border ($506k), only the second local flick to do so after #Selfie69.

 

- The Disappointments Room was down 55% after it's OW and now stands at $92k.

 

- And Storks closes the top, after a phenomenal 35% hold against Trolls' massive opening. Week to week though, it basically stayed flat, for $565k to date.

 

Top 10

 

4Jsxs9O.png

 

Next week's openers:

 

- Arrival

- Florence Foster Jenkins

- Shut In

 

After this crazy weekend, things are cooling down a bit, which should allow for some good drops from the holdovers.

 

The strongest of the newcomers will likely be Arrival. SF movies this time of year have always done good business. In 2015 - The Martian opened to 52.989 admissions, in 2014 - Interstellar debuted with 58.492 admissions, and in 2013 - Gravity opened to 32.042 adm. All of those movies had excellent legs and ended up making over $1m. The presales for Arrival look weaker though. Also, unlike those other movies, it doesn't benefit from 3D or IMAX (that still goes to Doctor Strange until Fantastic Beasts arrives). So I'm guessing an opening in the 20.000-25.000 adm area, followed by great legs. I hope it will surprise me an make more.

 

Florence Foster Jenkins looks pretty weak, so a debut in the 15.000 adm zone should be considered a win.

 

Shut In goes under 10.000 adm for sure.

 

TOP 20 movies of 2016 so far:

 

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***The bolded titles are still playing.

 

 

Edited by James
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8 hours ago, Wonka said:

Good OW for Doctor Strange & Trolls , to bad Forum Film Romania is messing things up 

Yeah. It is not that hard to get estimates, but it's work I didn't have to do before. Also, it kinda messes up everything because those average ticket prices charts and admission charts Cinemagia has are now useless. But I will do the work myself if I have to. I hope this year hits 13m adm.

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WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

And we had yet another huge week for the box office, where the leaders remained the same as last weekend.

 

- Doctor Strange held really well, easing a light 39% and reaching a magnificent $987k. That is the BEST total for any Marvel movie through the second weekend, beating Civil War's $962k. Civil War fell off the cliff afterwards, but that doesn't seem to be the case for Strange. It might actually have a shot at Thor 2's $1.47m Marvel record. Still, it will lose all it's IMAX and 4DX screens this weekend to Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and those made quite a sizable chunk of it's money. 

Admission figures are still not available, but my (very precise) estimating is somewhere around 181.500, which is another Marvel record.

 

- Trolls was in second place yet again, but it registered a great hold (-34%) after it's massive opening. It now stands at a superb $596k and with great WOM it should easily become one of the Top 10 biggest animations ever.

 

- Arrival was the biggest debut of the week, with 26.263 admissions and $125k. That is not unexpected, but it still is one of the lower-side of a SF spectacle openings. The debut is a bit above Chappie's and that's not company any SF movie wants to be in. Still, Chappie had horrible legs and Arrival looks to have way better WOM so I think a leggy run is in order.

 

- The Accountant continued it's surprising run, easing only 33% and reaching $421k. $600k is still the target.

 

- Hacksaw Ridge proved it enjoys great WOM, registering the best hold in the entire Top 10 (-26%). The total is $172k.

 

- Inferno was down 32% and now stands at $820k. $1m won't happen, but that's still a damn good total.

 

- Florence Foster Jenkins opens even lower than I thought, with 6.598 adm and $31k.

 

- Shut In was another bomb, debuting to 6.961 admissions and $30k.

 

- Local sensation Doua Lozuri maintained it's string of good holds (-29%) and reached $541k.

 

- And Jack Reacher: Never Go Back had it's first decent drop (-46%), even though that one was still the worst in Top 10. The cume is a good $534k.

 

Top 10

 

DoGGuRM.png

 

Next week's openers:

 

- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 

- Nocturnal Animals

- Snowden

- The Handmaiden

- Inimi cicatrizate (local)

 

And now it's time for history to be made. It's no secret that I'm the biggest Harry Potter geek ever, so I can't fuckin wait to see Fantastic Beasts. It's BO is a different matter though. Here is the history of the franchise in Romania:

 

4cLLC83.png

 

Harry Potter may seem small in comparison with other franchises, but keep in mind that the market registered a massive growth in the years since the franchise ended, as did the ticket prices. 4 of the 8 Harry Potter titles were in their respective year's Top 10, between the places of #5 and #10. 

 

Given the market growth, Fantastic Beasts should have no problem claiming the biggest OW for the franchise (the record is Deathly Hallows Part 2's 43.219 adm) and the biggest total in admissions (also DH2: 150.981). It also has a really good shot at beating DH2 in USD.

 

FB's presales are very strong, but not huge. That might not be an issue though, considering theaters here treat it like a family movie (it actually has a dubbed version, which only animations have). I will predict a 60.000 adm OW for Fantastic Beasts, with the chance of it going higher.

 

Out of the other releases, only Nocturnal Animals has a shot at 10.000 adm.

 

 

2016 TOP 20 so far:

jLG69fL.png

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WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

And another big, big weekend, topped by J.K. Rowling's latest beast.

 

- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them finally opened this weekend to great numbers. With 66.287 admissions and $345k it is the biggest opener ever for the Wizarding World franchise, beating the previous record holder, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (43.219 adm and $307k). Here is the history of the franchise in Romania:

 

4cLLC83.png

 

With great WOM (8.3 grade on Cinemagia), Fantastic Beasts should be able to cross the $1m border, becoming the first Wizarding World movie to do so. 

 

- Trolls registered a beautiful hold (-26%) and now stands at a huge $786k. Depending on how Moana effects it this coming weekend, we will see if it has a shot at $1.5m. Anyway, massive numbers for it.

 

- Doctor Strange fell behind Trolls this weekend, sliding a big 51% while facing Fantastic Beasts. Still, after only three weekend it beat Civil War's final tally and now stands at an incredible $1.23m.

It should have no problem beating Thor 2's $1.47m Marvel record.

 

- Arrival is enjoying fantastic WOM, easing a light 25% and reaching $270k.

 

- In fifth, Nocturnal Animals debuted with 9.641 adm and $45k. Classic bomb.

 

- Hacksaw Ridge is also having powerful WOM, with the smallest drop in Top 10 once again (-22%). Total is $240k.

 

- The Accountant was down 44% and the cume is a nice $473k.

 

- The second bomb of the weekend was Snowden (4.902 adm and $24k). 

 

- Inferno fell 55%, but the total is a very nice $843k.

 

- And Florence Foster Jenkins collapses after it's already awful debut.

 

Top 10

r0US9zz.png

 

Next week's openers:

- Moana (or Vaiana)

- Bad Santa 2

- Album

- D'Ardennen

- Renesse 

- Viktoria

 

CinemaCity (main distributor, 65-70% of the market) still doesn't have tickets on sale for Moana. Actually, no theater chain does, which is a bit odd. Still, family movies don't have big presales anyway, so that shouldn't be a problem. It makes predicting it more difficult though. Frozen had the 2nd biggest animation OW ever, with 73.854 adm, while Tangled opened to a still very good 40.400 adm. Anything over 40.000 adm for Moana should be considered a win, especially considering how saturated the family market is right now (Doctor Strange, Trolls and Fantastic Beasts all making or heading for over $1m).

 

We haven't had a big comedy in a while and Bad Santa 2 looks like it could fill the spot. I think 20.000 adm is a given.

 

All the rest will struggle to 5.000 adm.

 

2016 TOP 20 so far:

6QFxwPr.png

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25 minutes ago, chrisman0606 said:

@James Also Doctor Strange is the first MCU movie to pass 5 Million Romanian Leu, and although Thor 2 is the highest grossing MCU film in Romania in US Dollars actually in Romanian currency it is the highest grossing for the MCU.

I missed that. You are right. In the next few days it should become the most attended one as well.

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@James Although Forum Films has stopped providing admission figure for their movies, b/c you est Doctor Strange to open at 86.506 admissions, is their a chance Next November when Thor 3 open, it will open to 100K admissions? I hope that Forum Films will provide admission agains next year too.

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1 minute ago, chrisman0606 said:

@James Although Forum Films has stopped providing admission figure for their movies, b/c you est Doctor Strange to open at 86.506 admissions, is their a chance Next November when Thor 3 open, it will open to 100K admissions? I hope that Forum Films will provide admission agains next year too.

Hmmm... I'm 50/50 on that one. I think it has a shot, but not because of DS. DS, just like SS and Deadpool this year, were outsiders of the superhero genre. A Marvel Avengers movie won't do it anytime soon and if it does it will have awful legs. But Thor has a big mythology/fantasy part to it and those to are as close as you can get to a sure fire winner in this market. Let's not forget the last Thor held the CBM highest grossing record until Deadpool and then Suicide Squad took the title. 

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WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

A little late and not a full analysis, but here is how the last weekend went.

 

- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them maintained it's top position for a second week, after easing 49% to reach a great $645k (very good hold for the franchise). It already beat all Harry Potter movies in USD, except for the last one. Soon enough though, it will pass Deathly Hallows - Part 2 too and the $1m border.

 

- Moana debuted in second place with a so-so 147k. Because it is distributed by Forum Film Romania, we have no admission figures for it, but it is somewhere around 30.000. That debut is among the weakest of the year for big animations. In admissions it is less than half of Frozen, about half of Ice Age: Collision Course and Trolls, and also under The Secret Life of PetsTangled, Zootopia and BH6. The OW is stronger than the Finding Dory's or Storks', but that's not much of a consolation. Still, expect the WOM to be strong, at least until Sing hits, in three weeks (it is opening the same weekend as Rogue One).

 

- Bad Santa 2 opened in third, with a very good 29.630 admissions and $130k.

 

- Other notable results: Doctor Strange is nearing $1.4m (and the highest grossing Marvel movie title) and Trolls is quite close to $1m.    

 

This week's releases:

- Underworld: Blood Wars

- Allied

- The Neon Demon

- Snowtime!

- Kills on Wheels

 

The last Underworld movie opened with over 22.000 admissions and the presales for this current one are very good. I expect a result around 30.000 and it could go higher. 

 

Allied is also having great presales. Adult oriented movies usually don't open that high, but look for this one to go over 25.000 adm.

 

Snowtime! is the first animated competition Moana is going to face. It isn't looking too impressive, but an opening over 10.000 adm should happen. It could go way higher than that though. It is winter themed and it's presales are decent.

 

The other two movie will likely go under 10.000 adm.

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3 hours ago, James said:

WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

A little late and not a full analysis, but here is how the last weekend went.

 

- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them maintained it's top position for a second week, after easing 49% to reach a great $645k (very good hold for the franchise). It already beat all Harry Potter movies in USD, except for the last one. Soon enough though, it will pass Deathly Hallows - Part 2 too and the $1m border.

 

- Moana debuted in second place with a so-so 147k. Because it is distributed by Forum Film Romania, we have no admission figures for it, but it is somewhere around 30.000. That debut is among the weakest of the year for big animations. In admissions it is less than half of Frozen, about half of Ice Age: Collision Course and Trolls, and also under The Secret Life of PetsTangled, Zootopia and BH6. The OW is stronger than the Finding Dory's or Storks', but that's not much of a consolation. Still, expect the WOM to be strong, at least until Sing hits, in three weeks (it is opening the same weekend as Rogue One).

 

- Bad Santa 2 opened in third, with a very good 29.630 admissions and $130k.

 

- Other notable results: Doctor Strange is nearing $1.4m (and the highest grossing Marvel movie title) and Trolls is quite close to $1m.    

 

This week's releases:

- Underworld: Blood Wars

- Allied

- The Neon Demon

- Snowtime!

- Kills on Wheels

 

The last Underworld movie opened with over 22.000 admissions and the presales for this current one are very good. I expect a result around 30.000 and it could go higher. 

 

Allied is also having great presales. Adult oriented movies usually don't open that high, but look for this one to go over 25.000 adm.

 

Snowtime! is the first animated competition Moana is going to face. It isn't looking too impressive, but an opening over 10.000 adm should happen. It could go way higher than that though. It is winter themed and it's presales are decent.

 

The other two movie will likely go under 10.000 adm.

Might be the only market so far where Blood Wars I'll be outperforming Awakening.

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3 minutes ago, Bishop54 said:

Might be the only market so far where Blood Wars I'll be outperforming Awakening.

It is mostly because of the market growth. Just look at FB. In only 10 days it already outgrossed 7/8 Potter movies. With a 10-20% yearly growth for the past 5-6 years and more and more cinemas being built every year it isnțt hard to see why the Top 10 movies ever here is constantly changing. Well, with thee exception of Avatar. What that movie did was INCREDIBLE. 

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@James Also CBM which have had a poor track record in Romania in previous years have been doing well this year with out of the top ten grossing films in Romania this year, five are CBM, and in fact the highest grossing film of this year is a CBM, But i Think Rogue One may knock it off. Do you think CBM in the coming years will continue to do great business in Romania? 

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17 minutes ago, chrisman0606 said:

@James Also CBM which have had a poor track record in Romania in previous years have been doing well this year with out of the top ten grossing films in Romania this year, five are CBM, and in fact the highest grossing film of this year is a CBM, But i Think Rogue One may knock it off. Do you think CBM in the coming years will continue to do great business in Romania? 

CBMs always did good, but they were never massive the way they were this year. The were successful, a lot of them hitting 1m. If you look at this year, those 3 CBMs are not Marvel. I think people are tired of a formula. That's why DC/Deadpool did so well. DS will also break the norm, but that is more because of the magic angle than being a CBM.

But yes, CBMs will continue to do well. Looking at next year, DC will extend it's grip over the market. JL will certainly be the highest grossing CBM of the year, WW will also be HUGE because of it's period and mythology angles. Thor 3 should also be very big considering how many year Thor 2 held the highest grossing Marvel movie title (still does, but it will be dethroned by DS soon enough).  

Predictions:

Justice League - 1.8m

Thor 3 - 1.4m

Wonder Woman - 1.3m (this is the biggest wildcard in term of CBMs; it could go way higher if everything goes right - and I don't mean critic reception; let's not forget that Suicide Squad ended the highest grossing CBM ever bu having INSANE legs)

Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - 1.25m

Spider-Man: Homecoming - 0.9-1m

Logan - 0.7m

Edited by James
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A week ago Rogue One tickets went on sale and the presales are very strong. Not TFA level, but still. Lat year, The Force Awakens registered what is still the biggest OW ever in USD ($954K) and the second biggest in admissions (175.584), behind only Fast and Furious 7's 196.210. It went on to make a stunning $3.25m, becoming the second highest grossing movie ever, behind Avatar's $6.35m.

At the beginning of the year I predicted Rogue One to make 2.3m which, as of right know, would make it the biggest movie of the year, ahead of Suicide Squad ($2.09m). I don't know if that's happening anymore though. The final schedule for December is in place and Rogue One is facing an INSANE amount of competition, much much bigger than TFA ever faced.

 

For comparison:

- On it's first weekend of TFA, the biggest opener aside from it was Valiant Rooster (3.970 adm OW), while the holdovers were almost nonexistent at that point. Rogue One is facing Sing, which has a 35.000 adm (possibly 40.000) OW locked for it and a much stronger batch of holdovers.

- On it's second weekend, TFA's newest competition were 2 bombs (All Gone South - 13.710 adm OW; and The Peanuts Movie - 11.460 adm). Rogue One is facing Passengers (30.000 adm OW locked) and La La Land.

- On it's third weekend, TFA faced Point Break (67.339 adm OW), Sisters (24.527 adm OW), Snow Queen 2 (22.769 adm OW) and Creed (10.099 adm OW). Rogue One is facing The Great Wall (which should easily match Point Break), Why Him (which should outdo Sisters), The Founder and Ozzy (animation). This is the only balanced weekend.

- On it's fourth weekend (which is typically the biggest weekend of the year), TFA contended with Daddy's Home (40.093 adm OW), The Forest (20.382 adm OW) and Joy (10.954 adm OW). Rogue One is facing the most fierce competition it had so far. Assassin's Creed may not be competition for Rogue One in the US, but here it is locked to be one of the biggest hits of the year. 100.000 adm OW is in play for it. Aside from that, you also have Snow Queen 3, which should do at lest 20.000 and Collateral Beauty, which should do around the same.

 

Rogue One will be loosing screens like crazy because it will face possibly 4 (!!!) $1m contenders (Sing, Passengers, The Great Wall and Assassin's Creed) in it's first month. TFA didn't even have one.  

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