Weekend Estimates (pg49): Mockingjay 101M | Spectre 14.6M | Night Before 10.1M | SITE 6.63M

[grey ghost]

Double post

Edited November 22, 2015 by grey ghost

[grey ghost]

Disney and Universal are on top for a reason.

 

Their strategy of cinematic universes and revitalizing old franchises is the future of Hollywood.

 

These work far better than the typical reboot and sequel formula Hollywood has relied on for over a decade.

 

We're at the dawn of a new age.

[grey ghost]

20 minutes ago, department store basement said:

It's hard to believe that it was only earlier this month when Lionsgate announced they were making theme parks with THG rides.

 

Maybe that was just marketing for MJ2.

 

I doubt those parks see the light of day.

 

The thrill is gone.

[Ozymandias]

So with a 100m(give or take 5m) and Star Wars on the horizon, whats Floppingjay Part 2 looking at? 250m?

[Noctis]

4 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

So with a 100m(give or take 5m) and Star Wars on the horizon, whats Floppingjay Part 2 looking at? 250m?

 

Ozy...stop being bitchy.

[spizzer]

3 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

So with a 100m(give or take 5m) and Star Wars on the horizon, whats Floppingjay Part 2 looking at? 250m?

 

12 hours ago, spizzer said:

Given the extra hour of Thursday previews, everything else held constant, this should have a stronger Saturday jump than MJ1's +7.3%.  

 

Here are the previews as a percentage of Friday for the 4 Hunger Games films:

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THG: 41.5%

CF: 54.4%

MJ1: 44.6%

MJ2: 53.3% (est.)

 

 

Here are the previews as a percentage of opening day for the 4 Hunger Games films:

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THG: 29.3%

CF: 35.2%

MJ1: 30.8%

MJ2: 34.8% (est.)

 

 

Here are the Preview -> Friday increases for the 4 Hunger Games films:

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THG: +140.7%

CF: +83.8%

MJ1: +124.4%

MJ2: +87.5% (est.)

 

 

Currently, CF's daily shifts make the most sense for MJ2:

 

16.0M Previews

30.0M Friday

34.5M Saturday (+15.0%)

22.4M Sunday (-35.0%)

 

86.9M 3-Day

102.9M OW

 

THG (2.92), CF (3.0), MJ1 (3.05), all hit a ~3.0 multiplier from the 3-day weekend.  The same for this would yield a 276.8M DOM total.

FWIW, I wasn't aware of the Wednesday sneaks/double-features at the time I wrote this.  While those were probably minimal, in theory they would deflate Friday evening (relatively) which would be counteracted in the Saturday bump. 

[filmlover]

The idea of a Hunger Games theme park is just stupid to begin with. What will the tagline in the promotion be, "Welcome All Sociopaths?"

[Ozymandias]

14 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

Ozy...stop being bitchy.

 

Sorry, but I've heard way too much fanboy talk around these parts calling this franchise a cinematic landmark or the "phenomena of a generation" and that the first 2 movies should've been nominated for an ass load of Oscars... and I just rolled my eyes and stayed quiet.  But now that its gonna finish with a whimper, I get to gloat for a few days.

 

[Chewy]

3 hours ago, The Futurist said:

The only thing I don't get is the lack of Finale factor, no excitement whatsoever.

 

Finale factor doesn't exist when the first movie came out 3 years ago. Takes real time to build that up

[TLK]

I know that two Mockingjay movies are worth more to LGF than just one but they have been hinting that they want to expand the Universe and make more movies in future. Splitting the last movie into two may have helped them in the short term but it has weakened the brand. Warner Bros. would have found it much harder to greenlight Fantastic Beasts if last Harry Potter movie had underwhelmed.

[John Marston]

still no Saturday numbers? 

[John Marston]

also another thing I remember loads of people saying was that "Breaking Dawn jumped like this so MJ2 has to do it  as well". Or some other way Twilight behaved that Hunger Games had to do simply because Twilight did 

[water]

there is approximately 0 correlation between the hunger games and twilight or harry potter's box office runs

[Fullbuster]

34 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

Sorry, but I've heard way too much fanboy talk around these parts calling this franchise a cinematic landmark or the "phenomena of a generation" and that the first 2 movies should've been nominated for an ass load of Oscars... and I just rolled my eyes and stayed quiet.  But now that its gonna finish with a whimper, I get to gloat for a few days.

 

You're right, let them experiment what we call "backlash"

[keysersoze123]

57 minutes ago, spizzer said:

 

 

FWIW, I wasn't aware of the Wednesday sneaks/double-features at the time I wrote this.  While those were probably minimal, in theory they would deflate Friday evening (relatively) which would be counteracted in the Saturday bump. 

 

why? Isn't it always the case. All the BOs are always rolled into previews. It probably would have added into 1m.

[spizzer]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

why? Isn't it always the case. All the BOs are always rolled into previews. It probably would have added into 1m.

 

In this case?  I don't think it'll have any major notable effect at all.  But typically anytime we get evening previews on the night before, it just reduces Friday's evening demand by a bit, so Saturday jump looks stronger (because Friday's deflated, not because Saturday itself is stronger).  I'd imagine the same effect would occur if there were those shows on Wednesday as well.

 

BUT I think I misunderstood, the Wednesday shows didn't have MJ2 playing did they?  That is what I was assuming before and I think that's incorrect.  So there shouldn't be any effect.

 

Edited November 22, 2015 by spizzer

[Dementeleus]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

why? Isn't it always the case. All the BOs are always rolled into previews. It probably would have added into 1m.

 

In this case?  I don't think it'll have any major notable effect at all.  But typically anytime we get evening previews on the night before, it just reduces Friday's evening demand by a bit, so Saturday jump looks stronger (because Friday's deflated, not because Saturday itself is stronger).  I'd imagine the same effect would occur if there were those shows on Wednesday as well.

 

BUT I think I misunderstood, the Wednesday shows didn't have MJ2 playing did they?  That is what I was assuming before and I think that's incorrect.  So there shouldn't be any effect.

 

No, it was a MOCKINGJAY double feature. The new one was shown too.

[spizzer]

2 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

No, it was a MOCKINGJAY double feature. The new one was shown too.

 

Cool.  

 

Well then yeah, I stand by what I said.  

 

Wednesday satisfies niche/hardcore demand. Thursday partially satisfies Fri-evening demand.  

 

Complete theorizing: 

 

If MJ2 had midnights, but no previews/double features:

 

12M Midnights

34M Friday

35M Saturday (+3%)

 

If MJ2 had previews, but no Wednesday DF:

 

15M Previews

31M Friday

35M Saturday (+13%)

 

My actual projection:

 

16M Previews + Double Features

30M Friday

35M Saturday (+15%)

 

Pay no attention to the grosses, I'm just trying to illustrate the what I believe the phenomenon is w/regards to preview/Fri/Sat dynamics.

[Lumos]

Wow. So the the first 4 HP movies actually sold more tickets than the 4 Hunger Game films

 

SS: 56m

COS: 45m

POA: 40m

GOF: 45m 

total: 186 million tickets

 

THG: 51m

CF: 52m

MJ1: 41m

MJ2: 35m?

Total: 179 million tickets 

[Fullbuster]

12 minutes ago, Lumos said:

Wow. So the the first 4 HP movies actually sold more tickets than the 4 Hunger Game films

 

SS: 56m

COS: 45m

POA: 40m

GOF: 45m 

total: 186 million tickets

 

THG: 51m

CF: 52m

MJ1: 41m

MJ2: 35m?

Total: 179 million tickets 

HP is unlikely to be beaten anytime soon