FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM | 580.0 M overseas ● 814.0 M worldwide

[yjs]

wait, is this one getting a Chinese release? being supernatural and all.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

2 hours ago, yjs said:

wait, is this one getting a Chinese release? being supernatural and all.

 

Well, most of the other Harry Potter-films got chinese releases too.

 

Biggest one being HP: DH2 with $60M in China.

[James]

I am expecting UK + China + Japan alone to do at least 250m. 

France + Germany = 90m

Russia + Italy + Spain + Australia = 100m

Rest of Europe = 40m

South Korea + the rest of Asia = 40m

Latin America + Mexico + Central America = 80m

 

That's 600m which is the absolute floor methinks. I used very conservative numbers.

 

If things go well and it is a great movie I see no reason why UK+ China + Japan couldn't combine for more than 300m (90m in UK, 120m in China and 90m in Japan). Same for the other markets. 

 

[Heretic]

90m in UK is impossible with the ER. It's at 1.3 now, it's so low. £50m would be $65m, I can't see more than $70m happening. 

[keysersoze123]

I doubt this is hitting Potter numbers as this DOES NOT HAVE Potter. I think 500m is a good target for this one. Not sure its gonna explode in china or rest of asia. Would play stronger in traditional european markets.

[RichWS]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I doubt this is hitting Potter numbers as this DOES NOT HAVE Potter.

 

 

Amazing to me how many people are overlooking that simple fact.

[peludo]

8 hours ago, RichWS said:

 

Amazing to me how many people are overlooking that simple fact.

The same happened with Hobbit (me included), which is the best reference IMO.

 

Hobbit did about the same OS figures than LOTR but with 10 years of inflation, 3D and expansion of new markets. And with way better ER than now. Today, just TH3 would had done over $600m with two first parts making just over $550m.

 

Concerning Harry Potter, HP3-HP7 would had done between $500m and $550m. And last film, DH2 would do with today ER about $725m. Considering it was the 2011 film event and the final of the series, and taking into account that Fantastic Beasts has Rogue One as an enormous competitor, I think that 550 OS would already be a success (if the film has a similar quality to HP films, of course).

 

(The figures adjusted by ER were calculated about one month ago. Maybe those figures are now a bit different, but I do not think that result would change too much).

[Jason]

6 minutes ago, peludo said:

Concerning Harry Potter, HP3-HP7 would had done between $500m and $550m. And last film, DH2 would do with today ER about $725m. Considering it was the 2011 film event and the final of the series, and taking into account that Fantastic Beasts has Rogue One as an enormous competitor, I think that 550 OS would already be a success (if the film has a similar quality to HP films, of course).

 

(The figures adjusted by ER were calculated about one month ago. Maybe those figures are now a bit different, but I do not think that result would change too much).

 

Just did a very quick comparison with exchange rates from now and about a month ago, seems like about a ~2% increase over that time frame for most films in adjusted ER gross, quite minuscule. Figures I have using August 17 ER for HP5, HP6, and DH1 are $543M, $514M, and $529M respectively; DH2 is at $737M.

[James]

31 minutes ago, peludo said:

The same happened with Hobbit (me included), which is the best reference IMO.

 

Hobbit did about the same OS figures than LOTR but with 10 years of inflation, 3D and expansion of new markets. And with way better ER than now. Today, just TH3 would had done over $600m with two first parts making just over $550m.

 

Concerning Harry Potter, HP3-HP7 would had done between $500m and $550m. And last film, DH2 would do with today ER about $725m. Considering it was the 2011 film event and the final of the series, and taking into account that Fantastic Beasts has Rogue One as an enormous competitor, I think that 550 OS would already be a success (if the film has a similar quality to HP films, of course).

 

(The figures adjusted by ER were calculated about one month ago. Maybe those figures are now a bit different, but I do not think that result would change too much).

Are those 500-550m figures adjusted for 3D? I find it hard to believe that HP1 adjusts to only 500m despite being the biggest ticket seller of the series.

 

Also, I think people are failing to see that this series is just as cross generational as SW. Anecdotal evidence, but HP book rights here were bought last year by another publisher after the last one was bankrupt after the series ended. And they are once again topping the charts. I've seen two little kids reading them in train a week ago. 

 

500m for a spin-off to the biggest franchise in the world would be incredibly disappointing. That would also mean brutal drops in all big Potter markets (Japan, UK, France, Germany), plus barely an increase over DH2 in China despite that market being 4-5x times bigger than in 2011.    

Edited August 18, 2016 by James

[peludo]

11 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Just did a very quick comparison with exchange rates from now and about a month ago, seems like about a ~2% increase over that time frame for most films in adjusted ER gross, quite minuscule. Figures I have using August 17 ER for HP5, HP6, and DH1 are $543M, $514M, and $529M respectively; DH2 is at $737M.

Those figures fits with my numbers

[peludo]

4 minutes ago, James said:

Are those 500-550m figures adjusted for 3D? I find it hard to believe that HP1 adjusts to only 500m despite being the biggest ticket seller of the series.

The adjustment is just by ER. Not inflation or 3D. And I said that HP3-HP7 adjust to 500-550 OS with today ER, not HP1.

 

HP1 remains to be the biggest HP film BY FAR. With one month ago ER it would do $760m. And then you can apply inflation and 3D. It was a monster.

Edited August 18, 2016 by peludo

[James]

FB looks to follow DH2's patter of opening everywhere at once. DH2 opened in every market on the same weEkend, except for China. FB is the same, excepting Japan, which opens One week later (and, of course, China, which we don't have a release date for). Without Japan, DH2 made 292m on OW. 

Also, excluding China, it had a x2.86 multiplier from it's OS OW. 

FB should be able to manage a 150m+ OS weekend, which would be an absolutely massive fall from Potter (vs. 292m for DH2 without Japan). Let's say it has a typical only a x2.8 HP multi. That gets it to 420m. With 100m from China and 50m from Japan you get 570m. 

 

But let's say we choose DH1 as a comparison since that opened on the same date as FB.

 

That one made 205m on OW OS, but it didn't have France (which opened to over 20m one week later) and a bunch of smaller markets, nor did it have 3D. So from it's OW without France it had a almost a 3x multiplier. HP has been really consistent with their OS multipliers, just like DOM.

 

In any way, people are so fixated on the ER that they completely forget HP didn't benefit almost at all from the emerging markets, China especially (you'd think that would be obvious looking at the Hobbit/LOTR situation). I see no scenario where FB goes under 100m in China. 150m is also quite possible if the movie is good and I have no doubt it will be. That would be 90m DH2 didn't have. But aside from China there are also a bunch of smaller markets that, despite ER, have increased a hell lot in the last few years.      

[Quigley]

This could actually gross less than AUJ, purely because of the bad exchange rate. So many movies have come out lately and have broken records in various countries, but the dollar OS gross doesn't reflect that. Anyway, I still think 'breaking the B' is more likely than not.

[newbie BO buff]

boxofficepro long range forecast:

Title	Release Date	Distributor	Opening Weekend	Cumulative
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them	Nov 18, 2016	Warner Bros.	$78,000,000	$210,000,000

Good but not great. To me, this removes FB from the monster 800-millioner WW class down to 600-millioner.

Which also means it won't crack Top 10, given the triple assault of Moana - Rogue One - Sing.

 

If Deadpool's 782 million end up being the "low" point of the Top 10, that would be insane.

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio*  Filter A24 BG BST BV EC Focus Fox FoxS Free HTR LG/S LGF ORF Par. PFR QF RAtt. Rela. SGem Sony SPC STX TriS Uni. WB WB (NL) Wein. ALL	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %
1	Captain America: Civil War	BV	$1,152.8	$408.1	35.4%	$744.7	64.6%
2	Zootopia	BV	$1,023.6	$341.3	33.3%	$682.3	66.7%
3	Finding Dory	BV	$969.8	$484.2	49.9%	$485.6	50.1%
4	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$965.4	$364.0	37.7%	$601.4	62.3%
5	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	WB	$873.3	$330.4	37.8%	$542.9	62.2%
6	The Secret Life of Pets	Uni.	$820.9	$364.3	44.4%	$456.6	55.6%
7	Deadpool	Fox	$782.6	$363.1	46.4%	$419.5	53.6%
8	Suicide Squad	WB	$731.7	$318.1	43.5%	$413.6	56.5%
9	The Mermaid (Mei ren yu)	Sony	$553.8	$3.2	0.6%	$550.6	99.4%
10	X-Men: Apocalypse	Fox	$543.6	$155.4	28.6%	$388.1	71.4%

 

[newbie BO buff]

boxofficepro long range forecast:

Title	Release Date	Distributor	Opening Weekend	Cumulative
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them	Nov 18, 2016	Warner Bros.	$78,000,000	$210,000,000

Good but not great. To me, this removes FB from the monster 800-millioner WW class down to 600-millioner.

Which also means it won't crack Top 10, given the triple assault of Moana - Rogue One - Sing.

 

If Deadpool's 782 million end up being the "low" point of the Top 10, that would be insane.

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio*  Filter A24 BG BST BV EC Focus Fox FoxS Free HTR LG/S LGF ORF Par. PFR QF RAtt. Rela. SGem Sony SPC STX TriS Uni. WB WB (NL) Wein. ALL	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %
1	Captain America: Civil War	BV	$1,152.8	$408.1	35.4%	$744.7	64.6%
2	Zootopia	BV	$1,023.6	$341.3	33.3%	$682.3	66.7%
3	Finding Dory	BV	$969.8	$484.2	49.9%	$485.6	50.1%
4	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$965.4	$364.0	37.7%	$601.4	62.3%
5	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	WB	$873.3	$330.4	37.8%	$542.9	62.2%
6	The Secret Life of Pets	Uni.	$820.9	$364.3	44.4%	$456.6	55.6%
7	Deadpool	Fox	$782.6	$363.1	46.4%	$419.5	53.6%
8	Suicide Squad	WB	$731.7	$318.1	43.5%	$413.6	56.5%
9	The Mermaid (Mei ren yu)	Sony	$553.8	$3.2	0.6%	$550.6	99.4%
10	X-Men: Apocalypse	Fox	$543.6	$155.4	28.6%	$388.1	71.4%

 

[cannastop]

@newbie BO buff

 

Fantastic Beasts has a shot against Moana and Sing, in my opinion.

[druv10]

Presales have started in SK, it should be number 1 by late Sunday surpassing DS. 2) 13.3% (21,165)

[newbie BO buff]

Great early reviews!

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/fantastic_beasts_and_where_to_find_them

 

100% from 10 reviews

[kayumanggi]

Seeing this on Thursday!

[newbie BO buff]

27 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Seeing this on Thursday!

 

I was planning to see this on Wednesday, the regular opening day here. But then things came up and had to delay until Monday. Damn.