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FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM | 580.0 M overseas ● 814.0 M worldwide

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9 minutes ago, James said:

Those numbers would be horrendous! On the low end that's not even 1/3 of DH2' WW OW.

Considering it lacks only Japan and China, anything under 250m WW for the OW should be considered a failure. It better go over 300m.

 

Your numbers are too high, you expect really much..Be ready to be disappointed :ph34r:

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12 minutes ago, James said:

Those numbers would be horrendous! On the low end that's not even 1/3 of DH2' WW OW.

Considering it lacks only Japan and China, anything under 250m WW for the OW should be considered a failure. It better go over 300m.

I nowhere read such high numbers. I think you might be a bit too 'expecting' instead of hoping for?

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3 minutes ago, Heretic said:

It's definitely not going to have a worldwide opening above 300m, that't just unrealistic.

That would be a 62% retention rate from DH2.

250m would be a 52% retention rate.

 

This is still a Potter-verse movie. It might have slightly better legs, but it will still be frontloaded. It need to open good. With a 200m OW WW, even 700m is not happening. 

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13 minutes ago, James said:

That would be a 62% retention rate from DH2.

250m would be a 52% retention rate.

 

This is still a Potter-verse movie. It might have slightly better legs, but it will still be frontloaded. It need to open good. With a 200m OW WW, even 700m is not happening. 

In the UK, for example, this is going to open to less than half of DH2, in pounds. In dollars, it'll make about a third because the dollar has dropped so much since 2011. In most of Europe, I expect the same. 300m requires huge openings across the board, and with very weak ER's especially, it just won't happen. No way.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Heretic said:

In the UK, for example, this is going to open to less than half of DH2, in pounds. In dollars, it'll make about a third because the dollar has dropped so much since 2011. In most of Europe, I expect the same. 300m requires huge openings across the board, and with very weak ER's especially, it just won't happen. No way.

 

 

I get that, esp in the UK. But the last 3 Potter openings had a pretty stable 1/2 DOM/OS ratio when it comes to WW OWs. Assuming it does 100m in the US, that would mean 300m WW OW. But taking into account ER problems, lets say 250m. The forecasted 200m would mean a 1/1 ratio. The highest ratio ever for DOM in the franchises history is around 32-33%. Potter always was a foreign champion. FB making the same money from OS as from the US would be plain disaster. 250m at least must happen. 

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@James

 

Adjusting for both exchange rates and ticket price inflation, the foreign OW of DH2 excluding Japan would be $235M. Ratio of Domestic/OS OW would then be 42%/58% 44%/56%. A domestic opening right now of $100M would then be in line with a $240M $230M WW opening.

 

I agree that the Harry Potter franchise is a "foreign champion", but I think you're underestimating the impact of the increased strength of the USD.

 

Edit: Adjusted foreign OW for inflation but forgot to adjust domestic OW in original post (adjusts to $183M).

Edited by Jason
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43 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am expecting 400-500M OS.

 

Edit: Lol nvm, I just checked the OS results of the last few Potters. Dismiss. 

 

No you are quite right. We have no reason to expect much more than that, especially with a strong dollar on so many levels.

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4 minutes ago, Olive said:

This will easily beat DH2 in China.

80M is very likely, DH2 made 61M back in 2011.

It has some competition like Moana opening the same weekend, few other Hollywood releases the following weeks in China. Do you think it can fare that well or even to 100 in face of such competition?

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1 minute ago, chrisman0606 said:

It has some competition like Moana opening the same weekend, few other Hollywood releases the following weeks in China. Do you think it can fare that well or even to 100 in face of such competition?

I doubt Moana will be big, but 100M is very difficult for FB.

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On 11/15/2016 at 4:56 PM, Jason said:

Adjusting for both exchange rates and ticket price inflation, the foreign OW of DH2 excluding Japan would be $235M. Ratio of Domestic/OS OW would then be 42%/58%. A domestic opening right now of $100M would then be in line with a $240M WW opening.

 

Oops. I adjusted the foreign OW for inflation, but not the domestic OW. Taking that into account, adjusted ratio of Domestic/OS would then be 44%/56%. A domestic opening right now of $100M would then be in line with a $230M WW opening. (Small difference, I know, but I thought I should correct the record anyway.)

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Playing with numbers.

 

Opens with 85 mil, overperforming. Frontloaded like the last 2 HP films, 2.4x multiplier. 204 mil domestic. 30:70 split, 680 mil worldwide.

 

Opens with 85 mil, overperforming. Leggy with a 2.9x multiplier, 246.5 mil domestic. 30:70 split, 822 mil worldwide.

 

Massively overperforming due to curiosity, 95 mil OW. Frontloaded with 2.4x multiplier, 228 mil domestic. 30:70 split, 760 mil worldwide.

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