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MOANA | 394.6 M overseas ● 643.3 M worldwide

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Here's a regional breakdown of Frozen, Inside Out, and Zootopia, with ER-adjusted grosses shown for Frozen and Inside Out:

 

Quote
Region Frozen Froz-A IO IO-A Zootopia
United States + Canada $400.7 n/a $356.5 n/a $341.3
All OS Territories $875.7 $752 $501.1 $470 $682.2
Asia $388.8 $377 $108.7 $114 $366.6
Europe $318.4 $247 $239.6 $227 $218.3
Latin America $90.4 $61 $112.0 $88 $56.1
Oceania $31.1 $26 $26.7 $27 $24.0
Middle East $11.5 $10 $9.1 $9 $5.4
Africa $2.8 $2 $3.6 $4 $1.5
China $48.240 $43.7 $15.314 $14.2 $235.591
Japan $249.037 $247.3 $32.500 $38.9 $70.127
South Korea $76.696 $73.0 $33.579 $34.1 $31.259

 

Hard to make predictions this far out, but I'm going to assume Moana will be well-received. All the numbers of are guesstimates, but hopefully reasonable ones, neither conservative nor wildly optimistic.

 

I'm predicting $325M domestic, I'd predict more but I think Sing is going to cut off Moana's late legs.

 

ER-adjusted European gross for all three of these films has been pretty consistent, so $225M seems pretty reasonable. ER-adjustment for Latin America is not nearly as valid because of large increases in ticket price in local currency, so I think $90M is reasonable. Australia/NZ - $25M, Middle East/Africa and untracked territories - $20M.

 

Asia is really tricky. Looking at a wider set of animated films (ER-adjusted grosses shown here), grosses in Asia are more variable than other regions, largely because the three large markets of China, Japan, and South Korea sometimes completely ignore films (Ice Age), but also sometimes go wildly crazy for them (Frozen in Japan, Zootopia in China). I'm not going to predict a breakout for Moana in any of those three markets, but I don't think Moana will be ignored either - $75M in China (more than Frozen, but I'm factoring in market growth), $50M in Japan, $40M in South Korea. Another $25M from all other Asian markets. $190M total.

 

190+225+90+25+20 = $550M OS

 

$325M domestic + $550M OS = $875M WW, enough to put Moana past Pets and probably Sing, but perhaps not enough to pass Fantastic Beasts.

Edited by Jason
took me a while to notice the typo
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I actually doubt Moana could make that huge money, could even less than $250m domestically, moana does not have good timing at marketplace as frozen did, while frozen in 2013, did face competition like walking with dinosaur but defeat each of them and ruled the Christmas+New Year, but moana has do deal with universal's SING! which also feature song or musical some sort,  Sing is going to cut moana's leg, and is a bigger threat as trailer view for Sing is so massive, 42m view on you tube, I suppose it's greater buzz/hype could dampen moana's ability to be another princess phenomena.   

Edited by titanic2187
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11 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I actually doubt Moana could make that huge money, could even less than $250m domestically, moana does not have good timing at marketplace as frozen did, while frozen in 2013, did face competition like walking with dinosaur but defeat each of them and ruled the Christmas+New Year, but moana has do deal with universal's SING! which also feature song or musical some sort,  Sing is going to cut moana's leg, and is a bigger threat as trailer view for Sing is so massive, 42m view on you tube, I suppose it's greater buzz/hype could dampen moana's ability to be another princess phenomena.   

 

Zootopia didn't benefit from a great buzz before its release, Moana could become a phenomenon when it's released.

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If Moana doesn't break out in either Japan or China, there's a VERY LOW, SLIM chance of it passing the $1 billion mark.  It is possible, would be great, but there's a very low chance of that happening.  HOWEVER, it would be the icing on the cake for WDAS, so I'm rooting for another $1 billion baby for Disney!

 

PS: The Japan figure for Frozen and China figure for Zootopia still astound me to this day.  Can't possibly fathom...  When Zootopia was first released I remembered I said, "If it does half as good as BH6 I would be happy," and then it goes on to do $235 million... 0_0 

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25 minutes ago, CelestialFairyIX said:

If Moana doesn't break out in either Japan or China, there's a VERY LOW, SLIM chance of it passing the $1 billion mark.  It is possible, would be great, but there's a very low chance of that happening.  HOWEVER, it would be the icing on the cake for WDAS, so I'm rooting for another $1 billion baby for Disney!

 

PS: The Japan figure for Frozen and China figure for Zootopia still astound me to this day.  Can't possibly fathom...  When Zootopia was first released I remembered I said, "If it does half as good as BH6 I would be happy," and then it goes on to do $235 million... 0_0 

 

We should hope for $600m-700m.

With the strong competition it's risky to expect more, BH6 numbers would be great and that was enough to satisfy Disney.

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4 minutes ago, newbie BO buff said:

 

 

In light of some doubts about this movie having a shot at 1 billion.

 

I don't really think it has a shot at all. I don't think it can replicate the Frozen frenzy and has 0% chance of even making even 1/3 of what Zootopia made in China, with FB breaking out and Your Name the following weekend having huge presales. The key would be Japan and China. China is out. And in Japan I don't think even the most optimistic prognosticators expect it to even make 1/2 of Frozen. 

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33 minutes ago, James said:

I don't really think it has a shot at all. I don't think it can replicate the Frozen frenzy and has 0% chance of even making even 1/3 of what Zootopia made in China, with FB breaking out and Your Name the following weekend having huge presales. The key would be Japan and China. China is out. And in Japan I don't think even the most optimistic prognosticators expect it to even make 1/2 of Frozen. 

 

Moana will be huge, in the US people already cry after seeing it because it's so moving :shades:

 

You'll see, even the Chinese won't be able to resist :worthy:

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1 hour ago, James said:

I don't really think it has a shot at all. I don't think it can replicate the Frozen frenzy and has 0% chance of even making even 1/3 of what Zootopia made in China, with FB breaking out and Your Name the following weekend having huge presales. The key would be Japan and China. China is out. And in Japan I don't think even the most optimistic prognosticators expect it to even make 1/2 of Frozen. 

99% chance of not making half of Frozen in Japan. Zootopia should be the benchmark for Moana's Japan performance.

Edited by cannastop
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