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2015 Awards and Precusors (PGA NOMS ON PG. 10)

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5 hours ago, narniadis said:

 

Yeah, and Bridesmaids well - that is the definition of a film the Academy would never nominate in the Picture category - no matter how well it did elsewhere. SOC is as near a lock at this point as Spotlight and The Big Short are.

 

One thing to take into consideration for original is Inside Out, Hateful Eight, and Ex Machina weren't eligible for a WGA nod.

 

But I do think this puts SOC in, makes Trumbo a possibility, and Star Wars is officially out.  However, also remember Brooklyn, Mad Max and Room were uneligible, so it might not mean Carol is in.

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Here are the ASC (Cinematography guild) nominations

 

  • Sicario, Roger Deakins, ASC, BSC
  • Bridge of Spies, Janusz Kaminski
  • CarolEd Lachman, ASC
  • The Revenant, Emmanuel Lubezki, ASC, AMC
  • Mad Max: Fury Road, John Seale, ASC, ACS
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BAFTA nominations

 

BEST FILM
THE BIG SHORT: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Brad Pitt
BRIDGE OF SPIES: Kristie Macosko Krieger, Marc Platt, Steven Spielberg
CAROL: Elizabeth Karlsen, Christine Vachon, Stephen Woolley
THE REVENANT: Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Arnon Milchan, Mary Parent, Keith Redmon
SPOTLIGHT: Steve Golin, Blye Pagon Faust, Nicole Rocklin, Michael Sugar

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
45 YEARS: Andrew Haigh, Tristan Goligher
AMY: Asif Kapadia, James Gay-Rees
BROOKLYN: John Crowley, Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey, Nick Hornby
THE DANISH GIRL: Tom Hooper, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Anne Harrison, Gail Mutrux, Lucinda Coxon
EX MACHINA: Alex Garland, Andrew Macdonald, Allon Reich
THE LOBSTER: Yorgos Lanthimos, Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, Efthimis Filippou

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
ALEX GARLAND (Director) Ex Machina
DEBBIE TUCKER GREEN (Writer/Director) Second Coming
NAJI ABU NOWAR (Writer/Director) RUPERT LLOYD (Producer) Theeb
SEAN MCALLISTER (Director/Producer), ELHUM SHAKERIFAR (Producer) A Syrian Love Story
STEPHEN FINGLETON (Writer/Director) The Survivalist

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
THE ASSASSIN: Hou Hsiao-Hsien
FORCE MAJEURE: Ruben Östlund
THEEB: Naji Abu Nowar, Rupert Lloyd
TIMBUKTU: Abderrahmane Sissako
WILD TALES: Damián Szifron

DOCUMENTARY
AMY: Asif Kapadia, James Gay-Rees
CARTEL LAND: Matthew Heineman, Tom Yellin
HE NAMED ME MALALA: Davis Guggenheim, Walter Parkes, Laurie MacDonald
LISTEN TO ME MARLON: Stevan Riley, John Battsek, George Chignell, R.J. Cutler
SHERPA: Jennifer Peedom, Bridget Ikin, John Smithson

ANIMATED FILM
INSIDE OUT: Pete Docter
MINIONS: Pierre Coffin, Kyle Balda
SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: Mark Burton, Richard Starzak

DIRECTOR
THE BIG SHORT: Adam McKay
BRIDGE OF SPIES: Steven Spielberg
CAROL: Todd Haynes
THE MARTIAN: Ridley Scott
THE REVENANT: Alejandro G. Iñárritu

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BRIDGE OF SPIES: Matthew Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
EX MACHINA: Alex Garland
THE HATEFUL EIGHT: Quentin Tarantino
INSIDE OUT: Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve
SPOTLIGHT: Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
THE BIG SHORT: Adam McKay, Charles Randolph
BROOKLYN: Nick Hornby
CAROL: Phyllis Nagy
ROOM: Emma Donoghue
STEVE JOBS: Aaron Sorkin

LEADING ACTOR
BRYAN CRANSTON: Trumbo
EDDIE REDMAYNE: The Danish Girl
LEONARDO DICAPRIO: The Revenant
MATT DAMON: The Martian
MICHAEL FASSBENDER: Steve Jobs

LEADING ACTRESS
ALICIA VIKANDER: The Danish Girl
BRIE LARSON: Room
CATE BLANCHETT: Carol
MAGGIE SMITH: The Lady In The Van
SAOIRSE RONAN: Brooklyn

SUPPORTING ACTOR
BENICIO DEL TORO Sicario
CHRISTIAN BALE The Big Short
IDRIS ELBA Beasts of No Nation
MARK RUFFALO Spotlight
MARK RYLANCE Bridge of Spies

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
ALICIA VIKANDER Ex Machina
JENNIFER JASON LEIGH The Hateful Eight
JULIE WALTERS Brooklyn
KATE WINSLET Steve Jobs
ROONEY MARA Carol

ORIGINAL MUSIC
BRIDGE OF SPIES Thomas Newman
THE HATEFUL EIGHT Ennio Morricone
THE REVENANT Ryuichi Sakamoto, Carsten Nicolai
SICARIO Jóhann Jóhannsson
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS John Williams

CINEMATOGRAPHY
BRIDGE OF SPIES Janusz Kamiński
CAROL Ed Lachman
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD John Seale
THE REVENANT Emmanuel Lubezki
SICARIO Roger Deakins

EDITING
THE BIG SHORT Hank Corwin
BRIDGE OF SPIES Michael Kahn
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD Margaret Sixel
THE MARTIAN Pietro Scalia
THE REVENANT Stephen Mirrione

PRODUCTION DESIGN
BRIDGE OF SPIES Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo
CAROL Judy Becker, Heather Loeffler
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD Colin Gibson, Lisa Thompson
THE MARTIAN Arthur Max, Celia Bobak
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS Rick Carter, Darren Gilford, Lee Sandales

COSTUME DESIGN
BROOKLYN Odile Dicks-Mireaux
CAROL Sandy Powell
CINDERELLA Sandy Powell
THE DANISH GIRL Paco Delgado
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD Jenny Beavan

MAKE UP & HAIR
BROOKLYN Morna Ferguson, Lorraine Glynn
CAROL Jerry DeCarlo, Patricia Regan
THE DANISH GIRL Jan Sewell
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD Lesley Vanderwalt, Damian Martin
THE REVENANT Sian Grigg, Duncan Jarman, Robert Pandini

SOUND
BRIDGE OF SPIES Drew Kunin, Richard Hymns, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD Scott Hecker, Chris Jenkins, Mark Mangini, Ben Osmo, Gregg Rudloff, David White
THE MARTIAN Paul Massey, Mac Ruth, Oliver Tarney, Mark Taylor
THE REVENANT Lon Bender, Chris Duesterdiek, Martin Hernandez, Frank A. Montaño, Jon Taylor, Randy Thom
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS David Acord, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Matthew Wood, Stuart Wilson

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
ANT-MAN Jake Morrison, Greg Steele, Dan Sudick, Alex Wuttke
EX MACHINA Mark Ardington, Sara Bennett, Paul Norris, Andrew Whitehurst
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD Andrew Jackson, Dan Oliver, Tom Wood, Andy Williams
THE MARTIAN Chris Lawrence, Tim Ledbury, Richard Stammers, Steven Warner
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS Chris Corbould, Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, Neal Scanlan

BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION
EDMOND Nina Gantz, Emilie Jouffroy
MANOMAN Simon Cartwright, Kamilla Kristiane Hodol
PROLOGUE Richard Williams, Imogen Sutton

BRITISH SHORT FILM
ELEPHANT Nick Helm, Alex Moody, Esther Smith
MINING POEMS OR ODES Callum Rice, Jack Cocker
OPERATOR Caroline Bartleet, Rebecca Morgan
OVER Jörn Threlfall, Jeremy Bannister
SAMUEL-613 Billy Lumby, Cheyenne Conway

THE EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)
BEL POWLEY
BRIE LARSON
DAKOTA JOHNSON
JOHN BOYEGA
TARON EGERTON

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At first sight

 

Surprising omissions:

The Martian not in BP

MMFR not in BP or BD

Spotlight not in BD

 

Other relevant omissions:

Room not in BP

Sicario not in BP

Score without Inside Out! Awful!

 

Noteworthy:

Vikander in Lead Actress while Mara in Supporting. Half of category fraud accepted.

Strong support for Ex Machina

Danish Girl has supporters

 

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1 hour ago, 4815162342 said:

Interesting that BAFTA denied the Vikander category fraud but accepted the Mara category fraud.

 

Maybe Mara had enough supporters in both categories, but they went with supporting because she had more votes as a supporting actress. Who knows?

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Notes:

 

I know this category is a crock of shit, but where the fuck is Daisy Ridley in Rising Star?

No Miller in Director is surprising. 

The Visual Effects are exactly what I'm predicting at the Oscars, I need to look at their crossover rate.

I'm slightly surprised The Martian didn't make screenplay, but they went for both period pieces so it makes sense.

Going to echo what Coolio said and say Rampling misses at the Oscars. 

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On 1/7/2016 at 5:33 PM, CoolioD1 said:

w/ the revenant leo's oscar begging seems like it's reached the point of that scene in the notebook where gosling tells mcadams that he'll jump off that ferris wheel if she doesn't go out with him.

Well can you blame the guy though? I'd pretty much be begging too if I gave the best film performance of the 21st century and got snubbed by them for an utterly basic "good" performance. 

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3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

^if it helps we could blame it on someone who doesn't actually deserve to be there. like ridley scott.

I keep hoping he won't get in. I still don't see how more than a few at the Academy would be passionate enough about that film to put it #1 in any category? So hopefully there's still a chance. 

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Wow, surprising nods.

 

This might have sealed The Big Short as the frontrunner for now, as it got a Director nod and Spotlight did it.

 

Carol is getting in over Room most likely.

 

Ex Machina and Danish Girl nods could have to do with them being British films.  Eddie Redmayne could still miss, as could Vikander for Ex Machina.

 

No Mad Max is really surprising, it'll likely get a director nod over Haynes or Spielberg, as will Spotlight.  But it's officially out of contention to win (if it ever was in contention to win)

 

No Inside Out for score (again) is an outrage.  Fantastic score that shouldn't be snubbed like that.  Especially to a few of those weaker contenders.

 

Minions beat out Anomalisa and Peanuts for a Best Animated nod.  Completely horrid choice, but interesting (as it also picked up a PGA nod).  Minions could end getting nominated.

 

Sicario and Straight Outta Compton will likely replace Hateful Eight and Ex Machina in original screenplay at the Oscars.

 

The Martian will likely replace Room for adapted screenplay (as it'll likely be the weaker contender out of Carol, it, and Brooklyn)

 

Actress is a big ? Because it all depends on category fraud.  If the fraud is accepted than those last two spots are completely up for grabs.  If not, it's locked as Vikander, Mara, Blanchett, Ronan, and Larson.  And it's nearly impossible to tell who else would take those spots.  Although, I do think Blunt sneaks in at the Oscars.

 

The supporting actor category is likely what we're getting at the Oscars.  I see Del Torro sneaking in.

 

Not Rachel McAdams in Supporting Actress is interesting, but it might not happen as Spotlight is losing ground.  This could be what we see for nominations.  Julie Walters is an interesting choice as well.  I think Helen Mirren is going to be in, maybe McAdams, but no guarantee.  If Brooklyn gets a BP nod, than Walters is in over one of them.  Winslet may as well, but Jobs is weak.

 

The cinematography cat agreed with the ASC, those are the Oscar nominations.

 

Bridge of Spies made it in editing over Spotlight, I expect the opposite to happen at the Oscars.

 

Production design looks right, only I expect Carol won't make it.  I think it's going to be stronger than the previous precursors indicate, but the art directors guild snubbed Carol and it should have been easy to get in there.

 

Danish Girl probably misses to Star Ward for costume design.  The rest looks right.

 

Mad Max and Revenant are in for Make Up, the other three aren't even on the shortlist, so it could be anything.

 

Bridge of Spies will miss sound nods.  Editing will likely be Sicario instead and mixing will be SoC and maybe Inside Out instead.

 

Those are likely the special effects nods, maybe The Walk is in over Ant-Man.

 

Interesting Baftas though.

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