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2015 Awards and Precusors (PGA NOMS ON PG. 10)

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Some things I found lurking on AwardsWatch:

 

No Dramatic ACE nominee has ever missed PGA since the expanded lineup

Crossover between an ACE Nom and DGA:

2014: 5/5
2013: 5/5
2012: 5/5
2011: 5/5 (Including Fincher for TGWTDT!)
2010: 5/5
2009: 3/5 (Inglorious Basterds and Precious Missed ACE)
2008: 5/5
2007: 4/5
2006: 5/5

 

Holy shit, Spotlight might actually be crumbling. 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Some things I found lurking on AwardsDaily:

 

No Dramatic ACE nominee has ever missed PGA since the expanded lineup

Crossover between an ACE Nom and DGA:

 

Holy shit, Spotlight might actually be crumbling. 

 

Thinking that because Sicario got a Dramatic ACE nom it could make it into the PGA field.

 

Damn, does that mean Sicario could be back in the race for a Best Picture nomination?

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3 minutes ago, Alpha said:

 

Thinking that because Sicario got a Dramatic ACE nom it could make it into the PGA field.

 

Damn, does that mean Sicario could be back in the race for a Best Picture nomination?

I wouldn't be surprised if Sicario is another Nightcrawler, I'm definitely not counting it out for Original Screenplay.

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37 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Some things I found lurking on AwardsWatch:

 

No Dramatic ACE nominee has ever missed PGA since the expanded lineup

Crossover between an ACE Nom and DGA:

2014: 5/5
2013: 5/5
2012: 5/5
2011: 5/5 (Including Fincher for TGWTDT!)
2010: 5/5
2009: 3/5 (Inglorious Basterds and Precious Missed ACE)
2008: 5/5
2007: 4/5
2006: 5/5

 

Holy shit, Spotlight might actually be crumbling. 

 

This year will be an exception. Todd Haynes and Mc Carthy are going to be nommed at DGA, IMHO

 

The ACE nominees only show that there are a lot of contenders fighting for room without a clear frontrunner. ACE nominations are particularly great news for TFA and Sicario.

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24 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

This year will be an exception. Todd Haynes and Mc Carthy are going to be nommed at DGA, IMHO

 

The ACE nominees only show that there are a lot of contenders fighting for room without a clear frontrunner. ACE nominations are particularly great news for TFA and Sicario.

Only one can get in, not both; McCarthy has a better chance. My guess is JJ would be the one left off in that scenario. 

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I don't know if this has been posted here, but the following movies won't be eligible at WGA: http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/wga-awards-brooklyn-hateful-eight-room-not-eligible-1201652192/

 

Original:

 

 

Clouds of Sils Maria

Ex Machina

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

99 Homes

Son of Saul

Suffragette 

Youth

 

Adapted:

 

Anomalisa

Brooklyn

The Danish Girl

45 Years

Me and Earl and the Dying Girl

Room

My predictions:

 

1. Spotlight

2. Bridge of Spies

3. Sicario

4. Trainwreck

5. Straight Outta Compton

 

1. The Big Short

2. The Martian

3. Steve Jobs

4. Carol

5. Star Wars

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FINAL PGA PREDICTIONS:

  • The Big Short
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Carol
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Room
  • Spotlight
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  • Straight Outta Compton

FINAL DGA PREDICTIONS:

  • Todd Haynes (Carol)
  • Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant)
  • Adam McKay (The Big Short)
  • George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
  • Ridley Scott (The Martian)

WGA PREDICTIONS: ORIGINAL

  • Bridge of Spies
  • Love & Mercy
  • Spotlight
  • Straight Outta Compton
  • Trainwreck

WGA PREDICTIONS: ADAPTED

  • Beasts of No Nation
  • The Big Short
  • Carol
  • The Martian
  • Steve Jobs
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On 1/4/2016 at 8:57 AM, CoolioD1 said:

Editing guild nominees:

 

Drama:

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

 

Comedy:

Ant-Man

The Big Short

Joy

Me and Earl and The Dying Girl

Trainwreck

 

Over Spotlight?  I loved Star Wars, but it wasn't better edited than Spotlight.

 

Star Wars or Sicario will likely miss the editing nom to Big Short.  The other three should be safe.  I'm going to guess Star Wars does.

Edited by The Panda
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4 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:

Either way, it indicates a whole lotta heat for SW, and less for Spotlight.

 

FWIW I agree with you.

 

That's true, Spotlight missing editing could be a big indicator of it losing BP.  Birdman missed it last year, but that was an exception, not a precedent.

 

I still don't think Star Wars can win BP, I think it'll be the Big Short.  But it and Mad Max are big dark horses now for a lot of categories.

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While we wait for PGA, the art directors guild noms have been announced: http://deadline.com/2016/01/art-directors-guild-awards-nominations-full-list-1201676110/

 

Period:

 

Bridge of Spies
Crimson Peak

The Danish Girl

The Revenant

Trumbo

 

Fantasy: 

 

Cinderella

Jurassic World

Mad Max

Star Wars

Tomorrowland

 

Contemporary:

 

Ex Machina

Joy

The Martian

Sicario 

Spectre

 

No Carol is a big one

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1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

While we wait for PGA, the art directors guild noms have been announced: http://deadline.com/2016/01/art-directors-guild-awards-nominations-full-list-1201676110/

 

Period:

 

Bridge of Spies
Crimson Peak

The Danish Girl

The Revenant

Trumbo

 

Fantasy: 

 

Cinderella

Jurassic World

Mad Max

Star Wars

Tomorrowland

 

Contemporary:

 

Ex Machina

Joy

The Martian

Sicario 

Spectre

 

No Carol is a big one

 

It's hard to come up with 5 Oscar Contenders out of this, just because there's three categories.  But I think the following are not in the race, and this would be the shortlist.

 

I'd think it'd look like

1.Cinderella

2.Mad Max: Fury Road

3.Bridge of Spies

4.Crimson Peak

5.Star Wars: The Force Awakens

6.The Martian

7.Ex Machina

8.The Danish Girl

9.The Revenant

10.Trumbo

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1 minute ago, The Panda said:

 

 

It's hard to come up with 5 Oscar Contenders out of this, just because there's three categories.  But I think the following are not in the race, and this would be the shortlist.

 

I'd think it'd look like

1.Cinderella

2.Mad Max: Fury Road

3.Bridge of Spies

4.Crimson Peak

5.Star Wars: The Force Awakens

6.The Martian

7.Ex Machina

8.The Danish Girl

9.The Revenant

10.Trumbo

Right now for PD I'm going with:

 

1. Crimson Peak

2. Cinderella

3. Mad Max

4. Star Wars

5. Bridge of Spies

 

The Martian is the alternative.

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