STAR WARS PREDICTION CONTEST. Winners Announced

[Juby]

OW: $224,2 mln

DOM: 807 mln (OW x3,6)

+OS: $1230 mln

=WW: $2.037 bln

[POTUS 2020]

 

		OW	DOM	WW	OW M	DOM %
1	ThatOneGuy	310.0	965.0	3000.0	3.11	32.2%
2	Druv10	306.0	1105.0	3465.0	3.61	31.9%
3	MovieMan89	305.0	1050.0	2790.0	3.44	37.6%
4	Klingo	290.0	980.0	3200.0	3.38	30.6%
5	yads	271.0	1055.0	3100.0	3.89	34.0%
6	WrathofHan	270.0	850.0	2100.0	3.15	40.5%
7	iJackSparrow	270.0	950.0	3300.0	3.52	28.8%
8	mahnamahna	270.0	950.0	2700.0	3.52	35.2%
9	Jessie	265.9	900.0	2400.0	3.38	37.5%
10	Baumer	265.0	925.0	2650.0	3.49	34.9%
11	Tstechnij	260.0	1050.0	2800.0	4.04	37.5%
12	DAR	255.0	975.0	3100.0	3.82	31.5%
13	Grey Ghost	254.3	915.5	2320.0	3.60	39.5%
14	parkerthegreat	250.1	1000.1	3005.1	4.00	33.3%
15	Films	249.7	886.4	2308.7	3.55	38.4%
16	DAJK	248.2	818.5	2650.0	3.30	30.9%
17	Jack	247.9	852.1	2295.0	3.44	37.1%
18	Empire of Spies	248.0	1032.0	2765.0	4.16	37.3%
19	TalismanRing	247.5	836.0	2170.0	3.38	38.5%
20	Noctis	246.0	800.0	2200.0	3.25	36.4%
21	Marek the Jedi	245.7	884.5	2204.0	3.60	40.1%
22	The Panda	245.0	770.0	2800.0	3.14	27.5%
23	Ajipon	244.0	844.0	2144.0	3.46	39.4%
24	wildphantom	243.5	817.9	2407.0	3.36	34.0%
25	BourneFan#1	242.7	805.2	2200.0	3.32	36.6%
26	peludo	240.0	850.0	2250.0	3.54	37.8%
27	Kalo	239.0	777.0	2777.0	3.25	28.0%
28	No Prisoners	238.1	800.5	2025.1	3.36	39.5%
29	Asyulus	238.0	726.6	1877.3	3.05	38.7%
30	Jajang	237.7	883.9	2587.0	3.72	34.2%
31	Ray G	237.4	861.0	2930.0	3.63	29.4%
32	AndyLL	237.0	1100.0	2800.0	4.64	39.3%
33	Heretic	237.0	805.0	2310.0	3.40	34.8%
34	Wrath	235.4	728.1	1650.0	3.09	44.1%
35	shaldun	235.0	825.0	2900.0	3.51	28.4%
36	Blankments	233.6	910.0	2394.8	3.90	38.0%
37	Goffe	232.0	715.0	1828.0	3.08	39.1%
38	Dan9	231.5	920.7	2330.0	3.98	39.5%
39	Hangman	231.1	896.7	3066.8	3.88	29.2%
40	BKB is Capt America	230.0	900.0	2500.0	3.91	36.0%
41	Daniel Dylan Davis	230.0	710.0	2200.0	3.09	32.3%
42	aliadiera29	229.0	700.0	2100.0	3.06	33.3%
43	FTF	227.5	755.5	2255.0	3.32	33.5%
44	pepsa	227.4	810.0	2054.0	3.56	39.4%
45	Junkshop36	227.0	783.0	1868.0	3.45	41.9%
46	TheGoodOlive	225.6	776.4	1834.0	3.44	42.3%
47	lilmac	225.1	727.0	1916.0	3.23	37.9%
48	Cory	225.0	810.0	2100.0	3.60	38.6%
49	231sEverywhere	225.0	761.0	2500.0	3.38	30.4%
50	Juby	224.2	807.0	2037.0	3.60	39.6%
51	Eleven	223.9	784.5	1946.5	3.50	40.3%
52	SchumacherFTW	223.6	695.4	1764.0	3.11	39.4%
53	xeno000	222.0	755.0	2500.0	3.40	30.2%
54	Fekunova	221.7	870.0	1500.0	3.92	58.0%
55	Charism	221.4	671.2	1770.0	3.03	37.9%
56	PanaMovie	220.1	958.6	1908.6	4.36	50.2%
57	Omni	220.0	710.0	1930.0	3.23	36.8%
58	theStun	219.5	785.0	1960.0	3.58	40.1%
59	Ethan Hunt	218.0	744.0	2000.0	3.41	37.2%
60	Jayhawk	218.0	745.0	1820.0	3.42	40.9%
61	BoxOfficeZ	217.3	680.0	1890.0	3.13	36.0%
62	CoolioD1	215.8	781.0	2073.0	3.62	37.7%
63	Michael Gary Scott	215.0	705.0	1900.0	3.28	37.1%
64	Samarus	212.0	754.0	1984.2	3.56	38.0%
65	Cmasterclay	212.0	686.0	1800.0	3.24	38.1%
66	Water Bottle	210.0	780.0	1900.0	3.71	41.1%
67	Alli	210.0	580.0	1400.0	2.76	41.4%
68	boomboom234	210.0	700.0	1800.0	3.33	38.9%
69	Lordmandeep	208.0	678.0	1700.0	3.26	39.9%
70	The Stingray	202.0	633.0	1533.0	3.13	41.3%
71	The Futurist	195.0	600.0	1350.0	3.08	44.4%
72	Bonenash	195.0	800.0	2105.0	4.10	38.0%
73	moviesRus	195.0	690.0	1900.0	3.54	36.3%
74	Dexter of Suburbia	190.0	589.0	1200.0	3.10	49.1%
75	langer	190.0	715.0	1705.0	3.76	41.9%
76	Harpospoke	189.9	600.0	1600.0	3.16	37.5%
77	James	180.0	595.0	1450.0	3.31	41.0%
78	Gokai Red	179.9	700.0	1550.0	3.89	45.2%
79	75live	178.3	713.2	1814.0	4.00	39.3%
80	Amadeus	170.0	600.0	1400.0	3.53	42.9%
81	Walt Disney	170.0	770.0	1900.0	4.53	40.5%
82	Ncsoft	165.5	593.0	1550.0	3.58	38.3%
83	Murgatroyd	160.0	640.0	1650.0	4.00	38.8%
84	Cochofles	155.0	730.0	1600.0	4.71	45.6%
85	CaptainJackSparrow	150.0	600.0	1600.0	4.00	37.5%
	Average	227.4	799.9	2172.0	3.53	37.7%
	Average Wednesday	227.7	799.6	2174.0	3.53	37.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Murgatroyd]

9 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

easy money to be made: bet $1000 to win $190 for over 1B WW.

19% return in 2 weeks

 

"The big question is, can J.J. Abrams’ Star Wars gross over a billion dollars worldwide? The Sports Interaction oddsmakers have the odds set at -521 to make more than a billion dollars across the world during it’s theatrical run"

 

irs nearly even money to beat Avatar

 

For those of us who don't gamble, what does that number mean? It doesn't look like any odds terminology I'm familiar with.

[XeOF4]

going with 256.0 OW/822.5 DOM/2,023.0 WW

[POTUS 2020]

34 minutes ago, Murgatroyd said:

 

For those of us who don't gamble, what does that number mean? It doesn't look like any odds terminology I'm familiar with.

for odds it goes like this minus is a favorite, plus is an underdog and it center around $100

-521  100  +350

bet $521 to win $100, paid back $621,   bet $100 to win $350, paid back $450

That's a big spread -450 to +350 is typical. This used when point spreads aren't applicablr

Even money is -110 and -110. the winner gets 100, the loser pays 110 on either side.

The 10% difference(the vig) is typical for the bookies cut

Edited December 10, 2015 by No Prisoners

[Talkie]

19 hours ago, baumer said:

We've all gone loonie.

 

We've all been led to lunacy by the crazed predictions in the TFA thread. I blame Tele. And Chewy. 

[Water Bottle]

I remember when I was considered a loon right after JW for insisting that SW7 was a lock for OW record. Now looking at the predictions, I'm a conservative.

Boy how the hype has changed.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[POTUS 2020]

On ‎12‎/‎8‎/‎2015‎ ‎3‎:‎49‎:‎14‎, langer said:

I see a lot of 3,1X to 3,3X multi.  You guys have certainly not done your homework about mid December movies...unless you expect the movie to suck. 

 

Let me put my head on the line now:

 

190M OW

715M DOM

1.705B WW

 

On ‎12‎/‎9‎/‎2015‎ ‎8‎:‎16‎:‎18‎, langer said:

 

It's not a typical December release, I'll give you that.  Still,  predicting a low multiplier means the poster either thinks :

- The movie will suck and WOM will kick in

- The movie will be so frontloaded because of the rush factor that it will affect its legs (Harry Potter DH2 type of run)

 

Just remember that a 3,1X multi in mid December is very rare and considered very bad. 

Reasons for 4x

All mid December movies had 3 or more of the following reasons for small opening weekend w large multi's compared to summer 100m+ numbers and upcoming SW7

3 hours long- less shows

Wed opening- weekend deflated

Previews were minute $3-15m if it was a Friday opener compared to SW7's 50m+ potential

Opened a few days earlier in the month, 13/14th, - Previews smaller on thursday, Friday weaker cuz most are still in school, Sunday evening weak, school on monday

And lastly, none of them are part of the biggest franchise in history and longest(except for JB, diff demo though) wiyh gotto see it first camping out Iphone madness

 

1	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	WB	$84,617,303	27.9%	4,045	$20,919	$303,003,568	12/14/12
2	I Am Legend	WB	$77,211,321	30.1%	3,606	$21,411	$256,393,010	12/14/07
3	Avatar	Fox	$77,025,481	10.3%	3,452	$22,313	$749,766,139	12/18/09
4	The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug	WB	$73,645,197	28.5%	3,903	$18,869	$258,366,855	12/13/13
5	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	NL	$72,629,713	19.3%	3,703	$19,613	$377,027,325	12/17/03
6	The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe	BV	$65,556,312	22.5%	3,616	$18,129	$291,710,957	12/9/05
7	Sherlock Holmes	WB	$62,304,277	29.8%	3,626	$17,183	$209,028,679	12/25/09
8	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	NL	$62,007,528	18.2%	3,622	$17,119	$339,789,881	12/18/02
9	The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies	WB	$54,724,334	21.5%	3,875	$14,122	$255,119,788	12/17/14
10	King Kong	Uni.	$50,130,145	23.0%	3,568	$14,049	$218,080,025	12/14/05

 

[POTUS 2020]

39 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

I remember when I was considered a loon right after JW for insisting that SW7 was a lock for OW record. Now looking at the predictions, I'm a conservative.

Boy how the hype has changed.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

less than 2m over JW is pretty tight for a lock. flurries in Ohio, or a televised OJ Simpson type low speed Cali chase could break that lock

Loon Up a bit or we'll start calling you Bill O'reilly!

[langer]

I was not talking about Wed openers.  Let me dig up the analysis I had done for that. 

[langer]

Copied from another thread and posted on Sept 11th.  Replying to someone who was suggesting a 5X multiplier

 

Avatar is the only exception and you can't get a 10X multiplier with a  sequel (at least not anymore...).  Original movies tend to have higher multipliers.  

 

TPM : 6.7 multipliers from a Wed release 

AotC : 3.9 multiplier from a Thurs release

RotS : 3.5 multiplier from a Thurs release

 

December release

Hobbit AUJ : 3.8 multiplier

I am Legend : 3.3 multiplier

Avatar :  9.9 multiplier

Hobbit DOS : 3.5 multiplier

LotR RotK : 5.2 multiplier (Wed release)

Narnia 1 : 4.4 multiplier

LotR TTT : 5.5 multiplier (Wed release)

Hobbit BotFA : 4.6 multiplier (Wed release)

King Kong : 4.4 multiplier ( Thursday release)

LotR FotR  : 6.7 multiplier (Wed release)

Tron Legacy : 3.9 multiplier

Sherlock Holmes 2 : 4.7 multiplier

 

You can clearly see that aside from Avatar, none of the blockbusters released between December 10th and December 20th on Fridays achieved a 5+ multiplier...

 

I don't see SW getting a multiplier over 4...

 

[langer]

 Another discussion I had with Tele concerning December multiplier of Friday releases.  Not saying I'm right...just that I did my homework!

 

 

On ‎10‎/‎28‎/‎2015‎ ‎8‎:‎38‎:‎17‎, Telemachos said:

There's a fairly large difference between movies released two weeks before Christmas (like DTESS) and one week. The former have much shorter legs. The latter all go well over 3x. 

I wouldn't say "fairly large difference", but pretty much spot on, although looking at the list below, there are not many movies that we can compare to Star Wars (frontloaded sequel with high OW).  If you only look at blockbuster level movies released in the last 2 weeks before Christmas, you get on average a 3,5X multi for movies released 2 weeks before Christmas and a 4,25X multi for movies released in the week before Christmas (not counting Avatar...).  The rush factor will bring SW's multi around 3,75X-4X. 

 

Movies released one week before Christmas (Friday release only - Dec 15th to Dec 20th):

Avatar : 9,75X multi

Tron Legacy : 3,91X multi

Sherlock 2 : 4,68X multi

Lemony Snicket : 3,97X multi

Pursuit of Happiness : 6,2X multi

Alvin 3 : 5,78X multi

Eragon : 3,26X multi

Movies released 2 weeks before Christmas ( Friday release only - Dec 8th to Dec 14th)

I AM Legend : 3,32X multi

Narnia 1 : 4,40X multi

Hobbit 1 : 3,56X multi

Hobbit 2 : 3,49X multi

Alvin 1:  4,93X multi

The Day the Earth Stood Still : 2,6X multi

Ocean's 12 : 3,15X multi

Exodus : 2,7X multi

Narnia 2 : 4,33X multi

[mrqe93]

OW: 127

DOM: 370

WW: 1.1 billion

[ssjrem]

Opening weekend: $235M

Domestic total: $820M

Worldwide total: $2.370B

[baumer]

That betting site doesn't have anything about SW on it.  They'd lose all their money if they were seriously offering that bet,

[baumer]

I would bet everything I own, every dollar I could get from anyone, that SW will make a billion dollars WW.  

[Murgatroyd]

Here's a bit of analysis on the predictions so far:

 

5 people predict that it will open to between 1.5-2x the current December opening record; 16 say 2-2.5x; 53 say 2.5-3x; 11 say 3-3.5x; 3 say 3.5-4x.

 

1 predicts it will have the #2 opening weekend of all time; 4 say #3; 6 say #4; 2 say #5; 1 says #6; 1 says #7; 1 says #9; 1 says #11; 1 says #17. The other 70 say it will beat the current record. Of those, 10 say it will beat Jurassic World by less than 10M; 16 by 10-20M; 16 by 20-30M; 12 by 30-40M; 5 by 40-50M; 3 by 50-60M; 4 by 60-70M; 1 by 80-90M; 2 by 90-100M; and 1 by over 100M.

 

24 predict that it will be #2 of all time domestic; 2 say #4; 8 say #5; 1 says #28. The other 53 all say it will be the #1 domestic movie of all time. Of those, 28 say it will beat Avatar by less than 100M; 15 by 100-200M; 8 by 200-300M; and 2 by over 300M.

 

1 predicts it will be #15 of all time worldwide;1 says #10; 2 say #6; 8 say #4; 35 say #3; 24 say #2; and 14 say #1. Of those, 4 say it will beat Avatar by less than 100M; 4 by 100-200M; 3 by 200-300M; 2 by 300-400M; 1 by 400-500M; 1 by 500-600M; and 1 by 600-700M.

 

Y'all are insane.

[spizzer]

4 minutes ago, Murgatroyd said:

Here's a bit of analysis on the predictions so far:

 

5 people predict that it will open to between 1.5-2x the current December opening record; 16 say 2-2.5x; 53 say 2.5-3x; 11 say 3-3.5x; 3 say 3.5-4x.

 

1 predicts it will have the #2 opening weekend of all time; 4 say #3; 6 say #4; 2 say #5; 1 says #6; 1 says #7; 1 says #9; 1 says #11; 1 says #17. The other 70 say it will beat the current record. Of those, 10 say it will beat Jurassic World by less than 10M; 16 by 10-20M; 16 by 20-30M; 12 by 30-40M; 5 by 40-50M; 3 by 50-60M; 4 by 60-70M; 1 by 80-90M; 2 by 90-100M; and 1 by over 100M.

 

24 predict that it will be #2 of all time domestic; 2 say #4; 8 say #5; 1 says #28. The other 53 all say it will be the #1 domestic movie of all time. Of those, 28 say it will beat Avatar by less than 100M; 15 by 100-200M; 8 by 200-300M; and 2 by over 300M.

 

1 predicts it will be #15 of all time worldwide;1 says #10; 2 say #6; 8 say #4; 35 say #3; 24 say #2; and 14 say #1. Of those, 4 say it will beat Avatar by less than 100M; 4 by 100-200M; 3 by 200-300M; 2 by 300-400M; 1 by 400-500M; 1 by 500-600M; and 1 by 600-700M.

 

Y'all are insane.

 

And CJohn hasn't even entered yet. 

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, langer said:

Copied from another thread and posted on Sept 11th.  Replying to someone who was suggesting a 5X multiplier

 

Avatar is the only exception and you can't get a 10X multiplier with a  sequel (at least not anymore...).  Original movies tend to have higher multipliers.  

 

TPM : 6.7 multipliers from a Wed release 

AotC : 3.9 multiplier from a Thurs release

RotS : 3.5 multiplier from a Thurs release

 

December release

Hobbit AUJ : 3.8 multiplier

I am Legend : 3.3 multiplier

Avatar :  9.9 multiplier

Hobbit DOS : 3.5 multiplier

LotR RotK : 5.2 multiplier (Wed release)

Narnia 1 : 4.4 multiplier

LotR TTT : 5.5 multiplier (Wed release)

Hobbit BotFA : 4.6 multiplier (Wed release)

King Kong : 4.4 multiplier ( Thursday release)

LotR FotR  : 6.7 multiplier (Wed release)

Tron Legacy : 3.9 multiplier

Sherlock Holmes 2 : 4.7 multiplier

 

You can clearly see that aside from Avatar, none of the blockbusters released between December 10th and December 20th on Fridays achieved a 5+ multiplier...

 

I don't see SW getting a multiplier over 4...

 

3.5 at best was what I was trying to say. 

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, mrqe93 said:

OW: 127

DOM: 370

WW: 1.1 billion

mite be close to 127 on Friday