riczhang Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Didn't Anna Karenina get bad reviews? Usually, Academy members look for movies with good reviews.And The Impossible is a question mark. For now.Anna Karenina didn't get horrible reviews, and it'll benefit from passion. It's also British. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pieman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 You're pretty much right. If Skyfall came out last year, it would have for sure got the nomination. But, this year, the lineup is super strong.Still don't think it could happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webslinger Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 The Academy has never been big on James Bond outside of the song category, so I don't think Skyfall ever would have gotten in, regardless of the strength of the year.It's so strange that nominees will be announced in less than two weeks. Perhaps it's because I remember back when they weren't announced until early-to-mid February, but it feels too early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Anna Karenina didn't get horrible reviews, and it'll benefit from passion. It's also British.Anna Karenina got a 63 Metascore. Academy voters go for the films with Metascores of 80+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Also, The Impossible got a 73 Metascore, so it's doing fairly better.TDKR has a 78 Metascore, so both it and The Inpossible have a better chance at making the cut than Anna Karenina ever would. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Anna Karenina got a 63 Metascore. Academy voters go for the films with Metascores of 80+.Don't ring the Academy into certain guidelines. It'll only result in a great shock on Oscar morning. Academy voters go not for the films with Metascores of 80+; they go with their hearts. They don't give a rat's ass about reviews and critics awards. Only time a critic could possibly matter is when a prominent awards group gives a very under the radar contender a win; boosting their profile. If you want examples I would like to refer you to The Reader, Crash, Extremely Long and Incredibly Condescending, and Billy Elliot. AMPAS loves what they love, and they'll vote for what they love. Anna Karenina is an extremely divisive movie; those who like it really love it, and those who don't like it really hate it. The current 5% rule gives Anna Karenina a huge benefit in this regard. Academy rules right now reward in their BP nominees not consensus but passion. It's their winner that will always be a consensus title. Secondly, Brit Block. Brits love their own films; it's not highly uncommon (but still relatively rare) for some of the Brit members I know to submit a BP nomination ballot with exclusively British films even though they may not feel that they're all among the top 5 of the year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Extremely Long & Incredibly CondescendingFTFY 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webslinger Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I still think Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close took too much crap last year. It wasn't a great movie, but there are worse movies that have been in the conversation for Best Picture.I wonder if there's an Extremely Loud type lurking this year. Maybe Flight? I do think this year is more competitive than last, but if voters are going to go for something that has a clear emotional message and delivers it quite loudly, Flight could be their guy. (And I say this as someone who liked that film a whole lot.) I highly doubt it will happen, but then, none of us thought Extremely Loud had a snowball's chance in hell of making the cut last year, so... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I still think Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close took too much crap last year. It wasn't a great movie, but there are worse movies that have been in the conversation for Best Picture.I wonder if there's an Extremely Loud type lurking this year. Maybe Flight? I do think this year is more competitive than last, but if voters are going to go for something that has a clear emotional message and delivers it quite loudly, Flight could be their guy. (And I say this as someone who liked that film a whole lot.) I highly doubt it will happen, but then, none of us thought Extremely Loud had a snowball's chance in hell of making the cut last year, so...Should've listened to O'Neil and Kargar last year on EL&IC, and trusted my sources. EL&IC was showing up on a surprising number of ballots. Looking back on it in hindsight there were big signs pointing towards EL&IC but back then of course no one could envision that as a BP nominee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acsc1312 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Should've listened to O'Neil and Kargar last year on EL&IC, and trusted my sources. EL&IC was showing up on a surprising number of ballots. Looking back on it in hindsight there were big signs pointing towards EL&IC but back then of course no one could envision that as a BP nominee.My NGNG for ELIC was Daldry, not picture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 My NGNG for ELIC was Daldry, not picture.Oh, that would've just been a nightmare. Daldry's already got a huge ego after going 4 for 4 for BP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acsc1312 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 People would've gone batshit crazy if he would've gone 4 for 4 for BP AND Director. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pieman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I still think Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close took too much crap last year. It wasn't a great movie, but there are worse movies that have been in the conversation for Best Picture.I wonder if there's an Extremely Loud type lurking this year. Maybe Flight? I do think this year is more competitive than last, but if voters are going to go for something that has a clear emotional message and delivers it quite loudly, Flight could be their guy. (And I say this as someone who liked that film a whole lot.) I highly doubt it will happen, but then, none of us thought Extremely Loud had a snowball's chance in hell of making the cut last year, so...Yes, it is a good film but if there is an EL&IC lurking this year I think it will be The Impossible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Yes, it is a good film but if there is an EL&IC lurking this year I think it will be The Impossible.Yes. If the EL&IC this year chooses to appear in the final line-up it'll be The Impossible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I think we will see surprises when nominees are announced, but what those surprises will be, I have no idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I still think Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close took too much crap last year. It wasn't a great movie, but there are worse movies that have been in the conversation for Best Picture.I wonder if there's an Extremely Loud type lurking this year. Maybe Flight? I do think this year is more competitive than last, but if voters are going to go for something that has a clear emotional message and delivers it quite loudly, Flight could be their guy. (And I say this as someone who liked that film a whole lot.) I highly doubt it will happen, but then, none of us thought Extremely Loud had a snowball's chance in hell of making the cut last year, so...The Extremely Loud this year is either Anna Karenina or The Impossible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acsc1312 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 How does the impossible relate to ELIC? It has a 79% RT and a best actress nominee contender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Marigold is getting best picture and best director nods. Book it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Gary Scott Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Moonrise kingdom book it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
