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AndyLL

The Derby Awakens - Week 51 : December 18 - December 20, 2015

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Damn I didn't know when the deadline was to get predictions in. 

 

Left my SW prediction at $200m. Surely going pass that. 

 

Would have predicted about $225m. 

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On 12/18/2015, 3:32:01, Claire Evans Holt said:

I was gonna go with $255M. MESS.

 

I'm still happy with my 337.5  prediction.  However I predicted big drops for everything else which I'm not quite sure of.

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On 12/18/2015, 1:09:22, Darth AndyLL said:

 

Hopefully I won't bring up the rear again.  The average's will change in the next few days.  Some people posted extremes ( $1 for TFA ) which throws the average off.  I'm working to exclude those so we have a better idea of what was predicted. 

 

 

The averages are fixed.  Also added a chart that visually shows the predictions ranges:

 

http://derby.boxofficetheory.com/AllPredictions.aspx

 

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I know I definitely put predictions in, but it says I haven't.

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5 hours ago, lab276 said:

I know I definitely put predictions in, but it says I haven't.

 

It's showing predictions for you.  The detail on the 'weekly scores' page doesn't seem to be working.  I'll look at that tonight.  However if you go to the 'All Weekly Scores' page and filter on you ( click the 'funnel' under player name ) it shows your picks

 

lab276 Star Wars: The Force Awakens $230.00M $0.00M 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
lab276 Sisters $10.00M $0.00M 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
lab276 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip $19.00M $0.00M 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
lab276 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 $4.70M $0.00M 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
lab276 In the Heart of the Sea $4.30M $0.00M 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
lab276 The Good Dinosaur $6.00M $0.00M 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
lab276 Creed $4.50M $0.00M 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
lab276 Krampus $3.30M $0.00M 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
lab276 The Night Before $1.90M $0.00M 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%
lab276 Spectre $1.50M $0.00M 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%

 

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Shoot, put 237.5 in the threads but went low at 232.5M for the derby.  Poor choice.  Pretty weak performance, I overestimated older skewing holdovers and ended up low on all three openers.

 

Mentioned that I expected Dilwale to crack the top 10 but a pleasant surprise, we got two Bollywood films sneak in.  They ate into each other a bit though, either of them alone would have broke 2M (Dilwale with ease).

Edited by spizzer
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damn, I did really rubbish on everything except Alvin which I got to 0.1% accuracy.

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made some really bad calls in this first official derby. but i guess rank 22 with 77.875% isn´t that bad for a start (still, last week i was over 90%...). congratulations Matrix4You for winning this week!

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18 minutes ago, 8wombi7 said:

made some really bad calls in this first official derby. but i guess rank 22 with 77.875% isn´t that bad for a start (still, last week i was over 90%...). congratulations Matrix4You for winning this week!

 

Everyone was down % wise from last week.

 

Without looking close it seems everyone struggled with holdovers.

 

Next week will be challenging... a lot of openers

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Ugh.  TGD and Night Before really killed me.  I'm waiting until I get theater counts next time and I really blew it thinking Disney would follow the pattern and help out TGD which had been their pattern

 

Total: 70.386%      

New: 86.558% 

Holdovers: 63.455%

 

But this was nice:  Star Wars: The Force Awakens:    $247.50M/ $247.97M/ 99.810%

 

:D

 

       
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Derby Results are official... let's hope I don't pull a Steve Harvey.

 

Congrats to Matrix4You for winning the 1st official Derby.

 

Here are the top 10:

 

1 Matrix4You 84.656% 92.711% 81.204% 14.170% 107 10
2 Rolling Thunder 84.229% 83.758% 84.431% 13.743% 106 10
3 Hangman 83.410% 84.185% 83.078% 12.924% 105 10
4 Salacious Tree Crumb 82.312% 87.884% 79.924% 11.826% 104 10
5 TheMovieman 81.869% 85.480% 80.322% 11.383% 103 10
6 Films 81.811% 79.073% 82.984% 11.325% 102 10
7 DAR 80.257% 96.501% 73.296% 9.771% 101 10
8 moviecriticguy 80.056% 91.590% 75.113% 9.570% 100 10
9 Bjorn 79.848% 84.707% 77.766% 9.362% 99 10
10 The Dark Alfred 79.753% 94.042% 73.629% 9.267% 98 10
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damn, I actually did well. If I keep this up I might even get somewhere. well done Matrix4you. :)

 

who was closest for SW, Andy?

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20 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Ugh.  TGD and Night Before really killed me.  I'm waiting until I get theater counts next time and I really blew it thinking Disney would follow the pattern and help out TGD which had been their pattern

 

Total: 70.386%      

New: 86.558% 

Holdovers: 63.455%

 

But this was nice:  Star Wars: The Force Awakens:    $247.50M/ $247.97M/ 99.810%

 

:D

 

       

 

And that  prediction won you the Star Wars Derby contest.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Salacious Tree Crumb said:

damn, I actually did well. If I keep this up I might even get somewhere. well done Matrix4you. :)

 

who was closest for SW, Andy?

 

 

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