The Derby Awakens - Week 51 : December 18 - December 20, 2015

[BK007]

Damn I didn't know when the deadline was to get predictions in. 

 

Left my SW prediction at $200m. Surely going pass that. 

 

Would have predicted about $225m. 

[Claire of Themyscira]

FUCK. I MISSED THIS? I THOUGHT IT WAS TOMORROW AT 12 PM. MESS.

[Claire of Themyscira]

I was gonna go with $255M. MESS.

[TalismanRing]

I wish I'd waited to post mine after seeing the big theater drop numbers.

[Water Bottle]

My prediction was $210 million. I think I might have lost.

[AndyLL]

On 12/18/2015, 3:32:01, Claire Evans Holt said:

I was gonna go with $255M. MESS.

 

I'm still happy with my 337.5  prediction.  However I predicted big drops for everything else which I'm not quite sure of.

[AndyLL]

On 12/18/2015, 1:09:22, Darth AndyLL said:

 

Hopefully I won't bring up the rear again.  The average's will change in the next few days.  Some people posted extremes ( $1 for TFA ) which throws the average off.  I'm working to exclude those so we have a better idea of what was predicted. 

 

 

The averages are fixed.  Also added a chart that visually shows the predictions ranges:

 

http://derby.boxofficetheory.com/AllPredictions.aspx

 

[lab276]

I know I definitely put predictions in, but it says I haven't.

[AndyLL]

5 hours ago, lab276 said:

I know I definitely put predictions in, but it says I haven't.

 

It's showing predictions for you.  The detail on the 'weekly scores' page doesn't seem to be working.  I'll look at that tonight.  However if you go to the 'All Weekly Scores' page and filter on you ( click the 'funnel' under player name ) it shows your picks

 

Player	Title	Prediction	Actual	Your Score	Average Score	Difference from Avg. Score

lab276	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$230.00M	$0.00M	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
lab276	Sisters	$10.00M	$0.00M	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
lab276	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	$19.00M	$0.00M	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
lab276	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2	$4.70M	$0.00M	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
lab276	In the Heart of the Sea	$4.30M	$0.00M	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
lab276	The Good Dinosaur	$6.00M	$0.00M	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
lab276	Creed	$4.50M	$0.00M	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
lab276	Krampus	$3.30M	$0.00M	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
lab276	The Night Before	$1.90M	$0.00M	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%
lab276	Spectre	$1.50M	$0.00M	0.000%	0.000%	0.000%

 

[spizzer]

Shoot, put 237.5 in the threads but went low at 232.5M for the derby.  Poor choice.  Pretty weak performance, I overestimated older skewing holdovers and ended up low on all three openers.

 

Mentioned that I expected Dilwale to crack the top 10 but a pleasant surprise, we got two Bollywood films sneak in.  They ate into each other a bit though, either of them alone would have broke 2M (Dilwale with ease).

Edited December 21, 2015 by spizzer

[Avatree]

damn, I did really rubbish on everything except Alvin which I got to 0.1% accuracy.

[CJohn]

I bombed.

[8wombi7]

made some really bad calls in this first official derby. but i guess rank 22 with 77.875% isn´t that bad for a start (still, last week i was over 90%...). congratulations Matrix4You for winning this week!

[AndyLL]

18 minutes ago, 8wombi7 said:

made some really bad calls in this first official derby. but i guess rank 22 with 77.875% isn´t that bad for a start (still, last week i was over 90%...). congratulations Matrix4You for winning this week!

 

Everyone was down % wise from last week.

 

Without looking close it seems everyone struggled with holdovers.

 

Next week will be challenging... a lot of openers

[TalismanRing]

Ugh.  TGD and Night Before really killed me.  I'm waiting until I get theater counts next time and I really blew it thinking Disney would follow the pattern and help out TGD which had been their pattern

 

Total: 70.386%      

New: 86.558% 

Holdovers: 63.455%

 

But this was nice:  Star Wars: The Force Awakens:    $247.50M/ $247.97M/ 99.810%

 

 

[AndyLL]

Derby Results are official... let's hope I don't pull a Steve Harvey.

 

Congrats to Matrix4You for winning the 1st official Derby.

 

Here are the top 10:

 

	Rank	Player	Total Score	New Release Score	Holdover Score	Difference from Avg. Score	Total Points	Predicted Movies

	1	Matrix4You	84.656%	92.711%	81.204%	14.170%	107	10
	2	Rolling Thunder	84.229%	83.758%	84.431%	13.743%	106	10
	3	Hangman	83.410%	84.185%	83.078%	12.924%	105	10
	4	Salacious Tree Crumb	82.312%	87.884%	79.924%	11.826%	104	10
	5	TheMovieman	81.869%	85.480%	80.322%	11.383%	103	10
	6	Films	81.811%	79.073%	82.984%	11.325%	102	10
	7	DAR	80.257%	96.501%	73.296%	9.771%	101	10
	8	moviecriticguy	80.056%	91.590%	75.113%	9.570%	100	10
	9	Bjorn	79.848%	84.707%	77.766%	9.362%	99	10
	10	The Dark Alfred	79.753%	94.042%	73.629%	9.267%	98	10

[Avatree]

damn, I actually did well. If I keep this up I might even get somewhere. well done Matrix4you.

 

who was closest for SW, Andy?

[AndyLL]

20 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Ugh.  TGD and Night Before really killed me.  I'm waiting until I get theater counts next time and I really blew it thinking Disney would follow the pattern and help out TGD which had been their pattern

 

Total: 70.386%      

New: 86.558% 

Holdovers: 63.455%

 

But this was nice:  Star Wars: The Force Awakens:    $247.50M/ $247.97M/ 99.810%

 

 

 

And that  prediction won you the Star Wars Derby contest.

 

 

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, Darth AndyLL said:

 

And that  prediction won you the Star Wars Derby contest.

 

 

 

[AndyLL]

13 minutes ago, Salacious Tree Crumb said:

damn, I actually did well. If I keep this up I might even get somewhere. well done Matrix4you.

 

who was closest for SW, Andy?