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AndyLL

The Derby Awakens - Week 51 : December 18 - December 20, 2015

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Damn, I blew it with Sisters and Alvin. Night Before also fucked up my derby score.

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2 minutes ago, Boxx93 said:

Damn, I blew it with Sisters and Alvin. Night Before also fucked up my derby score.

 

Almost everyone did poorly on 'Night Before'

 

Almost 1/2 the players got a 0% on it.

 

Only about 6 did better then 75%

 

I'll try to get some additional stats on the results up sometime this week

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7th?  Not bad for pulling most of these out of my ass

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Next week I need to be more careful about theater drops.

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i was expecting disney to boost TGD and this messed up my score, but 11th is still pretty good

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1 hour ago, Darth AndyLL said:

 

Almost everyone did poorly on 'Night Before'

 

Almost 1/2 the players got a 0% on it.

 

Only about 6 did better then 75%

 

I'll try to get some additional stats on the results up sometime this week

How do you get 0% on something? Wouldn't 0% accuracy be just not having a number? 

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thank you all.  it has been a pleasure analyzing numbers.  as technology progresses and gathering information becomes more available, hopefully someday we can measure theater capacity and see how films perform in different kinds of locations!

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1 hour ago, Salacious Tree Crumb said:

How do you get 0% on something? Wouldn't 0% accuracy be just not having a number? 

 

You can be more then 100% off.  In that case instead of a negative percent we cap the worst you can do at 0%

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2 hours ago, Salacious Tree Crumb said:

How do you get 0% on something? Wouldn't 0% accuracy be just not having a number? 

 

basically when you predict more than double of the actual gross

 

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Shocked I came anywhere near the top 10 :wub:

 

Done predictions for this week but think I'm going to terribly!

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On ‎12‎/‎21‎/‎2015‎ ‎11‎:‎52‎:‎32‎, Salacious Tree Crumb said:

How do you get 0% on something? Wouldn't 0% accuracy be just not having a number? 

BOM took the percentage the actual was away from your prediction

yours- 3m, the actual at 1.5m is 50% lower than yours

here is the opposite. 3m, 1.5m above an actual of 1.5m  is 100% wrong

 

with bom you could say 100m when the actual was 30m and score 30% but 15m would be zero you were rewarded for being high all the time but punished for being low

here you score zero at 100m and the 15m prediction will still score 50% on 30m

 

this is more fair when both predictors are an equal amount away

40m pred   30m actual  20m pred.  both are 10m away from 30m and are scored 66%

with bom, 40m was scored at 75%, the 20m was scored at 50%

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

BOM took the percentage the actual was away from your prediction

yours- 3m, the actual at 1.5m is 50% lower than yours

here is the opposite. 3m, 1.5m above an actual of 1.5m  is 100% wrong

 

with bom you could say 100m when the actual was 30m and score 30% but 15m would be zero you were rewarded for being high all the time but punished for being low

here you score zero at 100m and the 15m prediction will still score 50% on 30m

 

this is more fair when both predictors are an equal amount away

40m pred   30m actual  20m pred.  both are 10m away from 30m and are scored 66%

with bom, 40m was scored at 75%, the 20m was scored at 50%

 

 

 

 

Yep... plus with the current calc it's possible to go negative but we cap it at 0.

 

I never played BOM.  

 

How to calculate the base % seemed pretty straight forward to me.

 

How to score the results over time was the biggest decision. 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Darth AndyLL said:

 

Yep... plus with the current calc it's possible to go negative but we cap it at 0.

 

I never played BOM.  

 

How to calculate the base % seemed pretty straight forward to me.

 

How to score the results over time was the biggest decision. 

 

 

I must say I don't like the point system. It's probable that someones average for the quarter will be lower than others but with more points. I think overall average should be in play. I don't know how difficult it would be to write into the software parameters like; 

To win for the month a player must attend all games

For the quarter; 12 of 13

For the year 44 of 52

And of course just keep an all time average prediction list. To make the all time list, in the future, you must be in a of a min of 50 games

 

The major league batting percentage title has a minimum of 500 plate appearances when most appear more than 600 times.. It prevents a part time player from winning but doesn't exclude a player that's injured for a few weeks. 

 

I read what you wrote about someone winning a period with very few games played. Not fair is correct. But it will hard to win if a game is missed due to "injury". Also not fair. And if someone wins a low populated contest with 95% they could lose to someone that scored big points with a low percentage. Average percentage basis with a vast majority minimum played would be the way to go.

 

I really enjoyed BOM derby. This is great TY.

I took 12th. I edged higher for percentage reasons not realizing the actual was pegged. Next week!

 

Edited by No Prisoners
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13 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

I must say I don't like the point system. It's probable that someones average for the quarter will be lower than others but with more points. I think overall average should be in play. I don't know how difficult it would be to write into the software parameters like; 

...

 

I don't completely disagree.

 

Shawn and I looked at a lot of different methods over that last 6 months.

 

I will say I didn't like the percentage only because the game isn't how well you predict over time... it's how well you predict compared to other players.

 

It is much tougher to be the top predictor in a week where 100 people play compared to a week where 10 people predict.

 

We tried some pretty complicated systems to achieve the desired results.

 

Shawn suggested this idea and we chucked the rest.

 

It is so simple but did exactly what I was looking for.  It is not only rewarding the top players for having high %s but also rewarding them for beating they fellow players... the more they beat the more they are rewarded.

 

I'll be keeping an eye on the results as we get more data.  I wouldn't be surprise if the top % and my favorite number, best % over the average, gets recognized somehow. 

 

 

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Yep 

 

ABS(8.27 - 4.35) /4.35) = 90%+ 0ff

ABS(2.53 - 1.15  )/ 1.15 = 120% off or -20% which we cap at 0%

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