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Wrath

BOT User Tracking 12/18-20 Alvin, Sisters, Star Wars

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Oh, and as entertaining as it is, I'm not taking Boxofficerules predict at face value. I'm as amused as everyone else, and I'm extremely flexible when it comes to what constitutes a valid predict, but that's not a serious predict. ;)

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Here we go.

 

A lot of folks are chickening out on making predictions on TFA, making finding predicts for TFA more difficult than I expected. But they're devoting 100% of their attention to it anyway, so even references to Road Chip and Sisters even harder to find. Oh, well. Compared to other sides, we're a little optimistic on TFA and Road Chip, but pretty much in the middle on Sisters, given the relative lack of other predicts this weekend.

 

To be fair, predicts are kinda all over the place on TFA. Usually, the error Ratio goes down as predicted BO goes up. MJ2 was 11.56%, Spectre was 11.39%, etc. But as has been discussed, that seems to break down once a movie is predicted to open over $100M or so. After that, it seems to slowly start working in the other direction as the pool of comparables suddenly gets really small. Anyway, I'm sure most of us are catching TFA tonight, and I'm looking forward to that.

 

The Force Awakens

Mean: 234.3M

Median: 233.6M

StnDev: 38.01M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 16.22%

High: 313M

Low: 155M

 

BO.com 229M

Deadline 203M

ScreenRant.com  

Variety 210M

 

Road Chip

Mean: 12.9M

Median: 13.2M

StnDev: 3.44M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 26.55%

High: 21.4M

Low: 5M

 

BO.com 12.5M 

Deadline 12M

ScreenRant.com  

Variety 12M

 

Sisters

Mean: 13.3M

Median: 13.7M

StnDev: 4.69M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 35.30%

High: 22M

Low: 4.5M

 

BO.com 229M

Deadline 15M

ScreenRant.com  

Variety 13M

Edited by Wrath
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A fun weekend, and one of our best ever in predictions.

 

Force Awakens

Prediction: 234.3M +/- 38.01M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 248M (off by 13.7M, so 0.36 stndev)

An astounding BO result and a solid prediction by us. Plus, solidly better than anyone else as the folks who did predict mostly went low except BO.com who simply didn't go as high as we did. Grats to DAJK as best predictor on the biggest opening movie ever by guessing 248M.

 

Road Chip

Prediction: 12.9M +/- 3.44M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 14.3M (off by 1.4M, so 0.40 stndev)

Another solid predict by us, and once again we had the best predict as everyone else went just a touch lower (12-12.5M). Mrs Wrath absolutely made my weekend by promising me she wouldn't even try to make me take the kids to go see this thing. But I do seem to have a connection of sorts with this franchise, as I had the best predict for it, at 14.5M, albeit just barely over 4 folks who all predicted 14M.

 

Sisters

Prediction: 13.3M +/- 4.69M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 13.9M (off by 0.6M, so 0.13 stndev)

Outstanding prediction and once again the best predict of the lot. Impressively, we weren't the highest guess this time, we were just the closest. Best predict was by Krissykins at 14M.

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