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Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW

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19 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

Anybody else? I'm predicting at least 1.3 billion WW.

I have to see the marketing first and how much of a role Vader plays. If he's featured I'm thinking it could do $600 million domestic and $1.4 billion worldwide. If he's not, I'm thinking $400 million domestic and $1 billion worldwide. They're striking again during Christmas so you know the holds will be there and coming off of TFA it's going to be well received. Everything else just depends on the quality of the film (considering Gareth Edwards is doing it I expect it to be good). 

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It will fall a lot from TFA here, maybe more than 40%? The thing TFA benefited most of was the absolute lack of competition, both DOM and especially OS. RO has a bit more crowded schedule, with Assassin's Creed, Passengers and Sing all arriving 5 days in it's run. I suspect the former will do really well OS, if it keeps the realease date. At least here the game is very popular. 

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If the movie is good, then I see it making $1.6 billion ($1.45 billion at the very least). $600m DOM and $1b OS ($900 million at the lower end, will depend on exchange rates).

I think in the US & Canada, it can have a similar retention to TFA as Iron Man 3 had to The Avengers. It's coming off the good will of TFA and as such, its opening will be huge and it has holidays over its next two weeks. It will have a very healthy run and will probably be the family audience's first choice over the very lucrative Christmas and New Year's holidays. It obviously won't come close to TFA but $550 to $650 million can happen imo. That's down from the $935 million of TFA.

In Europe and Oceania, I see this making £75 to £80 million in the UK. Depending on exchange rates by then, that's US$110 to 120 million. Australia generally performss similarly to the US so i can see it making Titanic (first run) unadjusted numbers there so around AUS$55 to 60 million (US$41 to $45 million with current FX rates). Germany should have one of the lowest drops among the mature markets. It's a very consistent country from what I've seen of it so even though RO is just a spinoff, it should fall no more than 30% from TFA there. I see US$80 million. I might be overesting Germany but I really feel like $65 million is the floor. France is less reliable so I'm predicting a 40% drop there from TFA for about 6 million admissions (US$50 million). Spain should be good for $20 million while Italy can squeeze another $20 million there. TFA could have done a lot more in Italy if the Local hit 'Quo Vado' hadn't destroyed its legs in week 3. New Zealand should do about $6 million (down from $10 million for TFA). Overall Europe and Oceania can generate $450 to $500 million, down from $700 million of TFA.


In Asia, Japan should be pretty big. Disney is really huge there, almost every major movie they've done in the past three years has done more than ¥5 billion. This one having the Star Wars brand attached to it should easily cross that mark. The release date is also very good. The simultaneous release of Yokai Watch is also a blessing. Unlike in other countries where competition kills a movie, it actually has a positive effect in Japan since the japanese go so little to the theaters that spillover business from one movie can help the others, especially during the holiday season where the market place generally expands.. Exchange rates are also quite better than back in December when TFA was released. I see RO making ¥9 billion there (about 83 milloon) a very slight slight drop from TFA's $96 million (bigger drop in local currency though, from ¥11.6B to ¥9 billion). In other parts of Asia, Donnie Yen should really help if its put to good use. I actually see Rogue One increasing from TFA in a lot of territories here since TFA wasn't that big. WOM for it wasn't all that but with a good movie that they can enjoy without nostalgia, I'm sure it can do better. South Korea I see doing $30 million at the very least and up to $40 million at the high end (TFA did about 23 million there). TFA had average to poor WOM and was destroyed by a local movie that made about $60 million. This one should do better thanks to Donnie yen's appeal IF it has good WOM (unless of course another huge local destroys it). In China, it should either increase or have a very small drop from TFA's $125 million. Thanks to market expansion, sequels rarely drop there. TFA had terrible WOM so it won't be easy to increase but as I said above, I'm under the assumption that its WOM will be better. Add Donnie to the picture and I see it doing anywhere between $110 and $150 million there. India should probably increase too. Is it possible for RO to drop from TFA there? TFA pretty much did peanuts there. Hong Kong normally should've had a similar drop to DOM but with better WOM and Donnie's presence, I see it holding slightly better. I see $8 to $9 million there (down from $11 million of TFA) or a bit less since I heard that TFA had abnormally expensive ticket prices there. Singapore, Thailand, malaysia, and all other smaller asian territories should behave similarly. Russia should decrease due to TFA's poor WOM there. I still see it doing $20 million+ there however (down from about $27 million of TFA) thanks to far better exchange rates. Overall, Asia should generate $350 to $375 million or even up to $400 million (if China overperforms) up from the $325 million that TFA did there.


Latin America should increase or stay flat. TFA was mostly an introduction to SW there and from what I can recall, it had better WOM accross the territory than in say, Asia (minus Japan). That together with market expansion and better exchange rates should make Rogue One hold well compared to TFA. I see both Brazil and Mexico doing $25 to $30 million (TFA made about $28 million in both countries). The same should hold accross the continent except maybe venezuala since I'm not even sure what the currency will be like in 8 months (TFA made $14 million there). Overall, Latin America should be good for $100 million, flat with the $100 million that TFA did there.


Low end:

Dom: $550m

OS: $450m + $350m + $100m = $900m

WW: $1.45B


High end:

Dom: $650m

OS: $500m + $400m +$100m = $1B

WW: $1.65B


This is all under the assumption that it'll be actually good (which I think it will).

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Just merged the 2 threads. we had a double up.  When creating a thread please post in the archives.  I keep it up to date as best I can. always remember to post the link in the archives... all fixed now


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On 12/15/2015 at 11:14 PM, Gokai Red said:

This will be the Iron Man 3 to The Force Awakens' Avengers.


I'm predicting 180/700/1550 for TFA and 140/400/1200 for RO.

Changing my prediction to 175/550/1400. I feel like that multiplier is too low (3.143 vs TFA's 3.774), but I just can't bring myself to predict such massive numbers like 600+. It just doesn't feel right. 

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