Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW

[newbie BO buff]

very impressive trailer

 

 

[TigerPaw]

On 4/14/2016 at 10:35 PM, Agafin said:

In other parts of Asia, Donnie Yen should really help if its put to good use. I actually see Rogue One increasing from TFA in a lot of territories here since TFA wasn't that big. WOM for it wasn't all that but with a good movie that they can enjoy without nostalgia, I'm sure it can do better. South Korea I see doing $30 million at the very least and up to $40 million at the high end (TFA did about 23 million there). TFA had average to poor WOM and was destroyed by a local movie that made about $60 million. This one should do better thanks to Donnie yen's appeal IF it has good WOM (unless of course another huge local destroys it). In China, it should either increase or have a very small drop from TFA's $125 million. Thanks to market expansion, sequels rarely drop there. TFA had terrible WOM so it won't be easy to increase but as I said above, I'm under the assumption that its WOM will be better. Add Donnie to the picture and I see it doing anywhere between $110 and $150 million there. India should probably increase too. Is it possible for RO to drop from TFA there? TFA pretty much did peanuts there. Hong Kong normally should've had a similar drop to DOM but with better WOM and Donnie's presence, I see it holding slightly better. I see $8 to $9 million there (down from $11 million of TFA) or a bit less since I heard that TFA had abnormally expensive ticket prices there. Singapore, Thailand, malaysia, and all other smaller asian territories should behave similarly.

Agreed with the Donnie Yen parts. Mainstream American audiences and Star Wars fans may not know this guy. 

But he is one of THE BIGGEST Box Office Draw in Asia, perhaps right now only Jackie Chan and Stephen Chow can rival this guy. Unlike others who only thrive in China, Star Wars got a good deal in Donnie as he is a big box office draw in whole of Asia not just China.

China he is pretty stable, his worst quality action movie in the past 5 years came out against huge competition and still generated over 100m yuan. Not forgetting he has films which has generated 800m yuan and 1billion yuan in the last 2 years.

But moving away from China...

Just look at the numbers he generated in Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong. His movies frequently comes out with big budget hollywood movies (Eg: Lost Bladesman against Fast 5/Thor in 2010, Wu Xia against Last Harry Potter, Capt America, Ip Man 3 against The Force Awakens, Ip Man 2 against Iron Man 2) but all still did excellent numbers and qualify for top 5 Asian movies in those countries.

Really impressive. Disney is good at picking their guys, and the trailer #1 thumbnails on Facebook for the above asian countries are all Donnie Yen scenes from the trailer.
 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Any final predictions?

[James]

I am seriously wondering if this beats FB OS.

[seduh]

it will beat FB for sure

[Aristis]

Hm... without China this could drop 40% to 50%. XR did not get better at all (beside Japan maybe).

 

I hope for an increase in China. Maybe $150M?

GB $90M (lc70M)

Japan maybe $70M?

Germany $60M

 

Let's say this drops 40% elsewhere: $380M

 

That makes $750M. I say $550M + $750M makes $1,3B

[TigerPaw]

Any experts can discuss about how FX fluctuations will cause its OS total to shrink?

[Lordmandeep]

I think 500 million overseas will happen due to Europe. 

[hw64]

1 minute ago, TigerPaw said:

Any experts can discuss about how FX fluctuations will cause its OS total to shrink?

 

UK will take a huge hit - pound is down over 15% from last year, and the UK was TFA's biggest overseas market. Euro is down a couple of percent too. The yen is up by 10-15%, which is nice, but Japan isn't as relevant for Rogue One as the UK/Europe will be.

 

It is VERY plausible that Rogue One doesn't beat FB overseas.

[peludo]

Just with Star Wars brand and Christmas I see easy to reach 500 OS. We will see if it is able to make more than that. For the moment, 400 DOM / 600 OS

[TigerPaw]

9 minutes ago, peludo said:

Just with Star Wars brand and Christmas I see easy to reach 500 OS. We will see if it is able to make more than that. For the moment, 400 DOM / 600 OS

The competition this year is crazy though. Passengers, Assasin's creed, sing... I am hopeful, but not optimistic at all. 600m OS is a win. Anything above 550m OS is good for me. 

Global Cume - 1billion worldwide will be a feat, considering it is a spin-off plus the negative currency effects.

[Agafin]

I think it'll easily beat Beasts OS because I actually see RO staying flat compared to TFA in South America and Asia (-Japan) while dropping 30 to 50% in most mature OS markets (Europe, Oceania and Japan). That should be enough to secure #1 or #2 OS title for the year.

[DeeCee]

Exchange rate is a few percent better in the case of Australia. I'm thinking AUD 60-65m. So it should hit USD45m. 

[eXtacy]

9 hours ago, James said:

I am seriously wondering if this beats FB OS.

 

Will easily surpass it. Rogue One will do 700-800m overseas. I think it being a spin off makes it a bit more accessible to those who haven't seen the episodes. Most people I know here in Australia are looking forward to this more than Episode 7, me included.

[TommyA10]

$575m domestic/$1.275b WW.

[terrestrial]

I am not a fan of deadline (especially their IMHO not really exisiting prediction skills for dom and even worse for OS), but they do deliver reepeatedly either earlier or in general something,... like in this case some numbers:

 

repeats about SW 7 for obvious comparison reasons.

Quote

- in an all-time global debut of $528.97M

- dom opened in 4,134 locations.

- dom highest preview night ever with $57M. 

.

(I am guessing OD) ... $281M start

.

- OW OS: Korea $7.8M ... were the UK ($50.6M), Germany ($27.5M), France ($22.5M), Australia ($19.6M) and Japan ($13.4M).

- OS totals: UK $163.6M total (citation Heretic: UK made $180m in the UK. BOM are fuck ups when it comes to exchange rate). China at $124M was No. 2, followed by Germany ($111M), Japan ($98M) and France ($86M).

 

their SW R1 expectaions / details:

Quote

- ~ OS Global OW = 280M-$350M

- dom between $140M-$150M in 4,100-plus sites, (100 more than reported before)

400 Imax theaters... for four weeks around the globe. = 500 Premium Large Format screens (the largest PLF footprint ever for any release), 3,500+ 3D screens and nearly 200 D-Box locations.

- dom Anything in the $20M range would be considered a great start for Rogue One on Night 1

.

(I am guessing OD): Foreign opening projections for Rogue One are looking north of $140M, ... non-Disney analysts it could be as high as $200M, which on average is a 25% difference...

.

 

ww release R1:

Quote

Rogue One will hit France on Wednesday followed by such majors as the UK, Australia, Germany, Russia, Mexico, Brazil and Italy on Thursday. On Friday, the key majors outside domestic are Japan and Spain.

The only territories not releasing next weekend are Korea (.. December 28 to stay away from local competition) ... and China, which goes on January 6.

 

OW OS R1:

Quote

1st w/e 710 Imax screens OS, 17 more when Korea opens, and more than 370 in China.

OW 70% of the overseas footprint.

In the markets opening for Rogue One, it should be noted that Captain America: Civil War debuted to $196M, which along with Batman V Superman ($256.5M) is one of the year’s biggest overseas debuts.

 

exchange rates (China, Euro is down too, AUS$, Yen is up):

Quote

There are also those pesky currency fluctuations to consider;.the UK particularly has taken a haircut in 2016, after the Brexit vote sent the pound plummeting in June....

 

local competition:

Quote

China has its own local movies through the rest of December which will have played out in that fast-burn market by the time Rogue One debuts January 6.

In India, Rogue One is going day-and-date, with one week to play before Bollywood titan Aamir Khan returns to the Christmas sweet spot with timely wrestling drama Dangal.

 

 

http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-one-a-star-wars-story-box-office-opening-disney-felicity-jones-1201867465/

Edited December 15, 2016 by terrestrial

[Heretic]

UK made $180m in the UK. BOM are fuck ups when it comes to exchange rate.

 

£65m in the UK would be only $82m now. $90m, which is half of TFA, would require around £71m currently.

 

It'll probably end up in the $85-90m range, but you never know with SW. It could blow up here again. 

 

Doubt it does less than 650m OS. It'll easily beat FB. 

[terrestrial]

@peludo @Heretic @Gavin Feng

 

Do you have the difference in exchange rates in comparison to SW 7 for country .... at hand? I mean the percentages?

Or with the exchange rates, so I could do maybe some sort of small chart so users can quote it from here to the threads e.. at dom (see this weekend at dom and later dailies/weekends probably too, and the SW R1 threads / clubs)

 

I read repeatedly in the dom area people not understanding e.g. OS OW expectations (totals too), based on not knowing e.g. the exchange rate changes.

Euro,British £, Yuan, AUS$, Rubel, Japan Yen, what else? Maybe countries like Mexico, Brazil, Sweden, Poland, ...  South Korea too already?

I think Indonesia might be interesting too, but BOM has no details to compare to in its foreign charts.

 

Did someone calculate the SW 7 previews /OD / OW / total for the Eurozone as a sum? Or other regions?

 

Who also to ask, I am so bad with names, I know I forgot at least 2 other usernames.

 

[Olive]

600-650M, if movie is as decent as EP7, 700M is also possible.

[terrestrial]

20 minutes ago, Olive said:

600-650M, if movie is as decent as EP7, 700M is also possible.

I forgot to add you too (I thought I did, but I have some problems with the pings whilst using Mozilla) see the post I wrote before this.