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CaptainJackSparrow

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW

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The numbers will be huge over the weekend. Judging by people I know, who all rushed to see TFA opening day...well they're going to see Rogue One over the weekend. 

 

I think the lack of secrecy surrounding the general story of this film is going to affect that initial rush out. 

Last year the secrecy surrounding it (and especially Luke's appearance) made the mania ridiculous. 

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3 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Movie's very good, it's got nothing on TFA imo though. 1.4 or 1.5 billion is where it's going I think. By the way, don't expect a lot of Vader, like really, it was known, but still.

Lol wut:rofl:So you're expecting it to make 800m in the US?

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Just now, TimmyRiggins said:

Of course not, probably like 400 to 500 domestic, the rest OS.

So 900m-1b from OS? That has absolutely 0% chance to happen. It will drop 50% or more from TFA in UK, France and Germany (and pretty much the rest of Europe). Asia will slow the overall drop a bit, but not by much. At this point the absolute ceiling I can see is 700m. And that is if it has amazing legs (better than TFA had). 600m is more likely and that is also depends on legs.    

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2 minutes ago, Quigley said:

I think it will still end up being the highest-grossing film of the year WW

I'm not sure of this any more.

In France, OW is forecast 40% of EP7, and will be even worse adjusted by exchage rates.

HK is 50% down from EP7 too.

These 2 markets are good indicators of Europe and Asia.

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Just now, Olive said:

I'm not sure of this any more.

In France, OW is forecast 40% of EP7, and will be even worse adjusted by exchage rates.

HK is 50% down from EP7 too.

These 2 markets are good indicators of Europe and Asia.

It's more than that. If the movie makes under 450m DOM then I'm not sure it will actually manage 1b WW. If it follows the TFA ratio in France it will end up with an OW under the one of FB. In Germany the forecast points to an opening in the same range as FB. In Japan I am sure FB will win this battle. That leaves China where I doubt it will manage to beat TFA. RO has Christmas holidays but also an insane amount of competition OS. FB had excellent legs, both DOM and OS. I think the overall opening will be in the same range.

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3 hours ago, Olive said:

I'm not sure of this any more.

In France, OW is forecast 40% of EP7, and will be even worse adjusted by exchage rates.

HK is 50% down from EP7 too.

These 2 markets are good indicators of Europe and Asia.


I think we should wait for the whole weekend first. RO still might be more backloaded. 

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16 minutes ago, Poseidon said:


I think we should wait for the whole weekend first. RO still might be more backloaded. 

 

There's also a danger of it being more front-loaded, especially if it's as much of a fan-oriented affair as people are suggesting.

 

This will be an interesting run.

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28 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Let's discuss. The most important thing.

It will not beat TFA.

But total global gross(including Domestic), will it beat Civil War as the Highest Grossing movie of the year?

 

LMAO I forgot Civil War existed and I had no idea it was the highest grossing film of the year WW. 

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8 hours ago, Olive said:

I'm not sure of this any more.

In France, OW is forecast 40% of EP7, and will be even worse adjusted by exchage rates.

HK is 50% down from EP7 too.

These 2 markets are good indicators of Europe and Asia.

 

 

 

Kind of weird to me 

 

 

 

if you saw the last one last year why not come see this?

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I feel like a lot of people who aren't even fans saw TFA last year. 

 

For example, I was in NYC when TFA was released, and my two sisters hate SW, they've never seen any of them. But we went to a show at amc 25 on opening night becasue it was a huge event, and a great experience. They're not watching Rogue One, they have no interest, even though they enjoyed the TFA experience.

Edited by Heretic
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