Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW

[JonathanLB]

Civil War was fantastic I thought.

[keysersoze123]

18 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Civil War was fantastic I thought.

 

I liked it as well. But it did not hold well. Definitely was not a must see like Avengers 2012 was for GA.

[keysersoze123]

So its doing 50% of TFA in Australia as well. There is a pattern seen here for sure. I see this finishing 50% of TFA minus China. China will probably do somewhere between 80-100% depending on how good the release date is.

[Gavin Feng]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So its doing 50% of TFA in Australia as well. There is a pattern seen here for sure. I see this finishing 50% of TFA minus China. China will probably do somewhere between 80-100% depending on how good the release date is.

 

Analogous to CW, which opened on May 6 after the May day from Apr.30-May.2, RO will open on Jan 6 2017. Dec.31-Jan.2 are holidays for New Year’s Day.

[Olive]

Horrible opening day in Taiwan, only 31% of TFA,  40% of Doc Strange, and a bit higher than Hacksaw ridge.

Asian markets aren't looking good.

Edited December 15, 2016 by Olive

[terrestrial]

At RT I have seen a higher percentage Spanish language reviewers than English language based reviewers give SW R1 a rotten review.

At dom no one answered to my question, maybe here someone has an impression:

translation bad?

If yes, a lot of countries are speaking Spanish as official language (21 countries and 2 ~ states)

 

The English speaking OS countries I could imagine with the 50% idea, but I am afraid that there will be ~ 1/ 3 of SW 7 regions too (incl. exchange rate), so I am less optimistic about the OS final %

= it is not a prediction, just thoughts about possibilities

 

edit: ah Olive has new numbers, so the 1/3 might be partly only 30% also

Thank you Olive @Olive

Edited December 15, 2016 by terrestrial

[zackzack]

15 hours ago, James said:

So 900m-1b from OS? That has absolutely 0% chance to happen. It will drop 50% or more from TFA in UK, France and Germany (and pretty much the rest of Europe). Asia will slow the overall drop a bit, but not by much. At this point the absolute ceiling I can see is 700m. And that is if it has amazing legs (better than TFA had). 600m is more likely and that is also depends on legs.    

 

Bottom line, R1 will do about half of TFA all over the world but it will still make a billion for Disney. 

One thing that is not a sure thing: Would casting China/Hong Kong stars Donnie Yen

& Wen Jiang improve on TFA's $124M+

Edited December 15, 2016 by zackzack

[terrestrial]

Do we know the (per countries partly recommended, partly ~ by law) the age limits for it?

After the remarks of US reviewers (see Collider clip) about it being borderline to r-rating I expected in Germany to find a 'at least 16y old' limitation, but it got a 12y old 'stamp' instead. In Germany the age thing is regulated = not a recommendation, only exemption is the 12y old 'stamp' = the cinema owners can decide if they want to offer a film also as a at least 6y old, if the child has at least one of its parents with it (not adult siblings...)

 

[Lordmandeep]

James is on a hard on for this to do below FB overseas but I highly doubt it misses 500 million.

[Fullbuster]

4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

James is on a hard on for this to do below FB overseas but I highly doubt it misses 500 million.

 

James is desperate, ignore him

 

I think Rogue One will make more than 50% of TFA in Brazil.

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

James is on a hard on for this to do below FB overseas but I highly doubt it misses 500 million.

 

FB will make more than 500m as well(probably looking at 550m). So R1 could make 500m and still lose to FB.

 

That being said I am thinking 600m+ for R1.

[IronJimbo]

praise james!

 

\o/ praise him \o/

[FantasticBeasts]

Well I can understand some guys here. I would be anxious too If I had bet on this making 1.3b or more...

[Olive]

France OD:271 502 admisisons

comps:

 Star wars 7 = 619 020 (OD) / 3 801 000 (O-week) / 10 505 000

 Star wars 1 = 450 531 / 2 257 000.

 Captain America 3 = 288 662 / 1 354 000

 Avengers 2 = 330 303 / 1 926 000.

[jb007]

I think it is a solid opening in France. The internal multiplier is likely to be good for Rogue One. We will see. 

 

Edited December 15, 2016 by jb007

[terrestrial]

15 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I would be anxious too If I had bet on this making 1.3b or more...

No one is anxious and I am happy with all above $700m ww (not OS) as usual for a film with an est. $200m budget at that time (= not a prediction, I look at all films the same way, not what it might make based on ???), but on what I think is  bottom or even max to hope for to expect including counting 2 years before the release on: bad press (see re-shoots, actor pro-China statements, alt-right idiots), bad exchange rates, bad release dates (see competition), bad weather (see SW 7 had none, Avatar had very bad weather at OW eek,...), changed aimed for audience groups, bad WOM, bad reviews, and all what play into the ww final result.

If it is the max or the bottom, for that I'll look into franchise, established directors/actors/... and, not to underestimate: genre, better said genre-mix with which genre as the obvious major one.

I do see the chances of franchises to reach 20%, 50% or even 100% more, if certain circumstances come into play, but I never 'bet' on that (I never bet anyway)

If a film like FB gets an additional genre added (period piece), than I too count on a major down in relation to the franchises earlier totals as a possibility, as period is not something all of the GA or fans-base will like. I am impressed with FBs numbers on that alone, but I didn't 'expect' it to make such IMHO good numbers.

 

Lets look at numbers for what they are instead of for what ever reasons someone hopes for better or worse? As in wait a bit (actuals...) and do not try to overly concentrate on only small aspects of the sum?

[FantasticBeasts]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

No one is anxious and I am happy with all above $700m ww (not OS) as usual for a film with an est. $200m budget at that time (= not a prediction, I look at all films the same way, not what it might make based on ???), but on what I think is  bottom or even max to hope for to expect including counting 2 years before the release on: bad press (see re-shoots, actor pro-China statements, alt-right idiots), bad exchange rates, bad release dates (see competition), bad weather (see SW 7 had none, Avatar had very bad weather at OW eek,...), changed aimed for audience groups, bad WOM, bad reviews, and all what play into the ww final result.

If it is the max or the bottom, for that I'll look into franchise, established directors/actors/... and, not to underestimate: genre, better said genre-mix with which genre as the obvious major one.

I do see the chances of franchises to reach 20%, 50% or even 100% more, if certain circumstances come into play, but I never 'bet' on that (I never bet anyway)

If a film like FB gets an additional genre added (period piece), than I too count on a major down in relation to the franchises earlier totals as a possibility, as period is not something all of the GA or fans-base will like. I am impressed with FBs numbers on that alone, but I didn't 'expect' it to make such IMHO good numbers.

 

Lets look at numbers for what they are instead of for what ever reasons someone hopes for better or worse? As in wait a bit (actuals...) and do not try to overly concentrate on only small aspects of the sum?

The post was meant for those guys that insulted a certain member. Anyone is entitled to their opinion and I didn't like those comments. If people here weren't that insecure and anxious as I said about those first numbers they wouldn't  feel the need to call names on people who posted some bad results.. 

[eXtacy]

2 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

James is on a hard on for this to do below FB overseas but I highly doubt it misses 500 million.

 

He thinks its best film of the last five years

 

Spoiler

Rogue One was better

 

[Claudio]

 
He thinks its best film of the last five years
 
Spoiler Rogue One was better
 

Miles better!

Sent from my F1f using Tapatalk

[FantasticBeasts]

From the Russian thread:

 

 

Only around 33-35% of The Force Awakens OD. 70 mln RUB or $1.15 mln at very best. Not enough for yearly top 10.