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TFA will drop over 50% next weekend

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31 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

JW made $18.5m previews instead of $57m and it also had a 2% Sunday drop due to Father's Day. 

 

That $57m preview number is a big problem for sub-50% second weekend even with Christmas boost. If we can get a big jump in actuals this weekend, it will mean better chance for sub-50% drop next weekend. 

 

Which is entirely valid if we're talking about any film that wasn't Star Wars. This is a film that had several theaters operating around the clock to satisfy moviegoers. (and yes I think actuals will be boosted quite a bit) I think the normal frontloaded talk is basically trashed because this is not a "one-and-done" film by any means.

 

...it's Star Wars. It's a cultural event going on currently that is bigger than Jurassic World. That, for me, throws most logic and stats out the window for reference.

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15 minutes ago, goldenstate5 said:

 

Which is entirely valid if we're talking about any film that wasn't Star Wars. This is a film that had several theaters operating around the clock to satisfy moviegoers. (and yes I think actuals will be boosted quite a bit) I think the normal frontloaded talk is basically trashed because this is not a "one-and-done" film by any means.

 

...it's Star Wars. It's a cultural event going on currently that is bigger than Jurassic World. That, for me, throws most logic and stats out the window for reference.

 

It is Star Wars and it has $57m drop guaranteed just from previews. Christmas will help a lot which is why I predict around 50% drop. 

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Revenge of the Sith dropped almost 50% on a holiday second weekend despite the fact its entire opening day was not even hurting the second weekend performance. If it opened on a Friday, the second weekend drop would have been around 60%. Just something to keep in mind.

 

I think a 50% hold for TFA would be amazing, especially since its weekday numbers will burn off a good chunk of demand thanks to students on vacation and workers taking time off. 

Edited by redfirebird2008
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22 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

I think a 50% hold for TFA would be amazing, especially since its weekday numbers will burn off a good chunk of demand thanks to students on vacation and workers taking time off. 

 

This. We're dealing with an unprecedented December opening, so it follows that we're also looking at an unprecedented drop for a late December weekend in which Christmas Eve does not fall.

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RotK had a 30% drop but that wasn't affected by midnights, previews, or opening day demand. I think after removing previews Ep7 will have at best a 35% drop for 120m which is just over a 50% drop from "OW". 

 

So yeah, I'm in.

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