Bastien Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 In 56% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenstate5 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 31 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: JW made $18.5m previews instead of $57m and it also had a 2% Sunday drop due to Father's Day. That $57m preview number is a big problem for sub-50% second weekend even with Christmas boost. If we can get a big jump in actuals this weekend, it will mean better chance for sub-50% drop next weekend. Which is entirely valid if we're talking about any film that wasn't Star Wars. This is a film that had several theaters operating around the clock to satisfy moviegoers. (and yes I think actuals will be boosted quite a bit) I think the normal frontloaded talk is basically trashed because this is not a "one-and-done" film by any means. ...it's Star Wars. It's a cultural event going on currently that is bigger than Jurassic World. That, for me, throws most logic and stats out the window for reference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klingo Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Out 1%. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 OUT 45% at most 130-145 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 15 minutes ago, goldenstate5 said: Which is entirely valid if we're talking about any film that wasn't Star Wars. This is a film that had several theaters operating around the clock to satisfy moviegoers. (and yes I think actuals will be boosted quite a bit) I think the normal frontloaded talk is basically trashed because this is not a "one-and-done" film by any means. ...it's Star Wars. It's a cultural event going on currently that is bigger than Jurassic World. That, for me, throws most logic and stats out the window for reference. It is Star Wars and it has $57m drop guaranteed just from previews. Christmas will help a lot which is why I predict around 50% drop. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 13 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: It is Star Wars and it has $57m drop guaranteed just from previews. Not if it increases over Christmas weekend. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 (edited) Revenge of the Sith dropped almost 50% on a holiday second weekend despite the fact its entire opening day was not even hurting the second weekend performance. If it opened on a Friday, the second weekend drop would have been around 60%. Just something to keep in mind. I think a 50% hold for TFA would be amazing, especially since its weekday numbers will burn off a good chunk of demand thanks to students on vacation and workers taking time off. Edited December 20, 2015 by redfirebird2008 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Empire Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Out 38% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webslinger Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 22 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: I think a 50% hold for TFA would be amazing, especially since its weekday numbers will burn off a good chunk of demand thanks to students on vacation and workers taking time off. This. We're dealing with an unprecedented December opening, so it follows that we're also looking at an unprecedented drop for a late December weekend in which Christmas Eve does not fall. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 1 hour ago, Klingo said: Out 1%. Seconded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I saw just over 50%. Remember it weekdays will be larger then JW. Then even with 50% drop is 120 million weekend. Then it will continue with another week of huge weekdays and have a sub 50% drop the third weekend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Out. Im going with under 50% by a few points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stringer Bell Theory Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Out but just slightly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murgatroyd Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 In. Even the Christmas boost won't be enough to counter the frontloading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Out 48% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonwo Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Out but I'll say it'll 45-48% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 RotK had a 30% drop but that wasn't affected by midnights, previews, or opening day demand. I think after removing previews Ep7 will have at best a 35% drop for 120m which is just over a 50% drop from "OW". So yeah, I'm in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Monday 35m Tuesday 35m Wednesday 35m Thursday 24m Friday 48m Saturday 55m Sunday 50m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyLL Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vc2002 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Yeah the big-ass preview number is a problem for TFA to hold incredibly well next wknd. But again this thing has incredible WOM so it's hard to judge. It could go a little bit under 50%, or a bit over. I'll go with under at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...