Star Wars Tuesday - 37.3M (Tele/baumer bet for Wednesday drop is on page 24...much to learn one of them still has)

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, BATMOOSEMIKE said:

What do you guys think the weekday drops in the future will be compared to Avatars? Higher? Lower?

Higher.

 

And I see you're from Vancouver! What part?

[GirafficPark]

This thread is amusing. Midnight is the following day, so 'midnight Thursday previews' are in fact Friday, anything before that is Thursday. That's a fact that cannot be argued against, but people will call it whatever they like. Only in Hollywood is 6pm Thursday on a Friday.

 

Having said that I already see February 2016 magazine issues coming out, so whatever.

[DAJK]

My theatre had their biggest day of the year on Sunday, only to be beaten by tonight which was our biggest night in a few years. Not a great comparison to overall BO because Canada has massive Tuesday bumps.

 

Heart of the Sea made the equivalent of $4.1M

Road Chip did $12.9M

Sisters did $12.5M

Force Awakens did $91M

[department store basement]

52 minutes ago, jandrew said:

is this a movie reference im missing lol?

 

I just chose random words that had the same initials as "Don't Stop Believin" which I was listening to when I made this username

 

If my username was "Don't Stop Believin" people would just quote the song whenever I posted and I didn't want that

Edited December 23, 2015 by department store basement

[setna]

I think we are in uncertain territory, it´s impossible to predict how this will act. In saturday we were pesimistic, sunday and yesterday, euphoric, today, little down again, i think we can have some surprises still, so this could move between 600 to 1bn, or even more...

But i think, the most important is to enjoy it, cause this won´t happen in long time again, i´m really doing!!

[Jandrew]

9 minutes ago, department store basement said:

 

I just chose random words that had the same initials as "Don't Stop Believin" which I was listening to when I made this username

 

If my username was "Don't Stop Believin" people would just quote the song whenever I posted and I didn't want that

 

Sorry if I sounded rude, I was just legitimately curious lol. Thanks. That makes sense.

[miketheavenger]

Hey guys! After a long hiatus I'm back on the forums.  Unfortunately I missed all the fun during TFA's OW, but I sure as hell won't miss the rest of this historic run. I have to say, though, that despite all the hype surrounding this film and whatnot, never in my wildest dreams would I have thought this would make nearly $250m OW in FUCKING DECEMBER. HOLY SHIT!!!

At this point, I really think the question isn't if it'll beat Avatar, but rather by how much it'll beat it. Not sure about 1bn domestic, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did it. It would definitely deserve it, though. It's a fantastic film.

[BoxOfficeZ]

Hopefully it stuck around 38m. That would be great for it.

 

Tomorrow will be a larger decrease and I can already see the crumbling and flop jokes. 

[tokila]

17 minutes ago, The Stingray said:

Anyone else feel the 900m and especially the 1b talk is a wee premature? Let's say around 650m by the end of New Years weekend, and another 200m after that (JW legs), which gives us 850m total.

 

Or are y'all expecting Avatar drops or something throughout its run?

 

Personally, I think it can do 900m, but 1b seems like a long shot.
 

 

my moderately conservate estimates have it at 530m This sunday. 600mil on the 30th(maybe 31st), and 700 on Jan 3(or next day). I think it will fall hard once we get past the holidays though. It still projects at that point with ok january holds (better than 50% week over week) to get to the mid 800s. 

[tokila]

5 minutes ago, BoxOfficeZ said:

Hopefully it stuck around 38m. That would be great for it.

 

Tomorrow will be a larger decrease and I can already see the crumbling and flop jokes. 

ya I am hoping for only a 9-10% dip tomorrow. That gets us around 33million and the Wednesday non-opener record. 

[B J]

final tuesday tally

 

sellouts: 21

showings: 67 (5 more than yesterday)

 

There was one less sellout than monday but 5 more shows. I think the added showings today were there to counteract discount tuesday. Unlike yesterday the majority of the sellouts oddly enough came after 6pm, up to that point the day was looking much weaker than Monday, but it recoerved in the end. With the 5 extra shows getting between 50%-80% full at discount prices more tickets were sold on the day with revenue being comparable to monday.

 

early wednesday tally

 

sellouts: 10

showings: 61

 

two less early sellouts than tuesday, but still going strong

Edited December 23, 2015 by B J

[setna]

Very interesting work to compare movies with now, TFA run ; enjoy it!

 

 

All-Time Domestic Box Office Adjusted for Inflation Based on Initial Release Only (self.boxoffice)

enviado hace 5 meses* por JakkuScavenger

I decided to play around a bit and try to give an estimate of what the all-time adjusted for inflation domestic box office chart might look like, if only original releases were counted. As box office mojo doesn't really keep information on movies released multiple times before 1982, for these movies I've done a bit of research and have explained how I've reached the numbers below the chart. I've only listed the top 20, because I found the process of finding box office runs of older movies very hard and frustrating. If there's interest, I might extend it to top 50 in the future.

 

#	Movie	Adjusted	Actuals
1	Titanic	$1,042,168,600	600,788,188
2	The Sound of Music	$1,037,145,000	$132,000,000 2
3	E.T.	$1,009,631,300	359,197,037
4	Doctor Zhivago	$1,007,979,900	111,721,910 1
5	The Ten Commandments	893,200,000	$55,000,000 2
6	The Exorcist	$838,053,500	$193,000,000
7	Jaws	$796,156,000	$201,000,000 3
8	Ben-Hur	$795,760,000	$74,000,000 1
9	Star Wars	$784,826,500	$215,537,332 4
10	Avatar	$778,741,600	$749,766,139
11	The Sting	$723,840,000	$156,000,000 1
12	Jurassic Park	$699,991,400	$357,067,947
13	The Graduate	$694,381,000	$104,642,560
14	The Phantom Menace	$688,785,500	$431,088,295
15	Gone with the Wind	$676,666,667	$20,000,000 5
16	Return of the Jedi	$657,585,100	$252,583,617
17	The Empire Strikes Back	$640,361,400	$209,398,025
18	The Godfather	$638,609,000	$133,698,921
19	Forest Gump	$637,790,400	$329,694,499
20	Raiders of the Lost Ark	$627,181,700	$212,222,025

1 - I couldn't find evidence that these movies have had a wide re-release.
2 - Estimated by me based on rentals from the original release and subsequent releases.
3 - In January, 1978 it was reported that Star Wars had outgrossed Jaws at the domestic box office. Star Wars had grossed $195 million by December, 1977 and $207 million by February, 1978. $201 million seems kind of in the middle of those two. Could be higher, could be lower.
4 - Last reported gross for Star Wars, before July, 1978 re-release. It's quite possible that the movie earned more than that before its first re-release, but there is no way to know for sure.
5 - As reported by IMDb.

Edit: I found a mistake in calculating The Sound of Music which has now been corrected.

 

[DAJK]

32 minutes ago, BoxOfficeZ said:

Hopefully it stuck around 38m. That would be great for it.

 

Tomorrow will be a larger decrease and I can already see the crumbling and flop jokes. 

If whoever started the whole crumbling thing with Jurassic world (I think it was some marvel fan who didn't want it passing AoU) comes back and says TFA is crumbling, I can totally see a) the post getting like 20+ likes

b ) everyone quoting the post in laughter or anger

[baumer]

2 hours ago, LonePirate said:

 

I think $60M is in play both days.

 

I think you're getting carried away.  50 mill could happen on Christmas Day but I think more realistic is just falling short and doing around 47-48 mill.

[stripe]

6 minutes ago, setna said:

Very interesting work to compare movies with now, TFA run ; enjoy it!

 

 

All-Time Domestic Box Office Adjusted for Inflation Based on Initial Release Only (self.boxoffice)

enviado hace 5 meses* por JakkuScavenger

I decided to play around a bit and try to give an estimate of what the all-time adjusted for inflation domestic box office chart might look like, if only original releases were counted. As box office mojo doesn't really keep information on movies released multiple times before 1982, for these movies I've done a bit of research and have explained how I've reached the numbers below the chart. I've only listed the top 20, because I found the process of finding box office runs of older movies very hard and frustrating. If there's interest, I might extend it to top 50 in the future.

 

#	Movie	Adjusted	Actuals
1	Titanic	$1,042,168,600	600,788,188
2	The Sound of Music	$1,037,145,000	$132,000,000 2
3	E.T.	$1,009,631,300	359,197,037
4	Doctor Zhivago	$1,007,979,900	111,721,910 1
5	The Ten Commandments	893,200,000	$55,000,000 2
6	The Exorcist	$838,053,500	$193,000,000
7	Jaws	$796,156,000	$201,000,000 3
8	Ben-Hur	$795,760,000	$74,000,000 1
9	Star Wars	$784,826,500	$215,537,332 4
10	Avatar	$778,741,600	$749,766,139
11	The Sting	$723,840,000	$156,000,000 1
12	Jurassic Park	$699,991,400	$357,067,947
13	The Graduate	$694,381,000	$104,642,560
14	The Phantom Menace	$688,785,500	$431,088,295
15	Gone with the Wind	$676,666,667	$20,000,000 5
16	Return of the Jedi	$657,585,100	$252,583,617
17	The Empire Strikes Back	$640,361,400	$209,398,025
18	The Godfather	$638,609,000	$133,698,921
19	Forest Gump	$637,790,400	$329,694,499
20	Raiders of the Lost Ark	$627,181,700	$212,222,025

1 - I couldn't find evidence that these movies have had a wide re-release.
2 - Estimated by me based on rentals from the original release and subsequent releases.
3 - In January, 1978 it was reported that Star Wars had outgrossed Jaws at the domestic box office. Star Wars had grossed $195 million by December, 1977 and $207 million by February, 1978. $201 million seems kind of in the middle of those two. Could be higher, could be lower.
4 - Last reported gross for Star Wars, before July, 1978 re-release. It's quite possible that the movie earned more than that before its first re-release, but there is no way to know for sure.
5 - As reported by IMDb.

Edit: I found a mistake in calculating The Sound of Music which has now been corrected.

 

 

That's really interesting. It really shows how gargantuan Titanic's run was. I think TFA is well positioned to reach at least the sixth place of the rank.

 

Jurassic World is also there at this moment. Place 17

[Killimano3]

I can understand the frustration about Thursday Previews in some respects. Just the fact that the previews are included in Friday shouldn't really bother anyone as it has no effect on tracking movies at all. If I compare JW and TFA i can accurately compare them whether i feel like including or discluding the previews. 

 

However i will admit I can understand how it might annoy some people that they cannot accurately compare say DH2s midnight/OD to TFAs Previews/OD as yes technically TFAs had a bit of an advantage there. So in that circumstance I can understand where people are coming from.

 

That said I personally don't really care enough for it to bother me.

[setna]

26 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

That's really interesting. It really shows how gargantuan Titanic's run was. I think TFA is well positioned to reach at least the sixth place of the rank.

 

Jurassic World is also there at this moment. Place 17

Gargantuan...nice word...and also reminds me to a great movie... Interstellar, of course.

thanks for comment Stripe.

[baumer]

I want this to go as high as possible but it can't maintain this ridiculous pace for the entire holidays.  If you look at the week after Christmas, and plug in the numbers, it just doesn't make any sense.  Are we really expecting New Years Weekend to behave like it has in the past?  Because if it does, that puts it on pace for another 50 million dollar day and that just doesn't make sense.  It can't keep these numbers up, can it?  We know it's going to be over 500 mill come Sunday but all this time we have been using 2010 as a model, but in other years where Christmas doesn't fall on a Friday, the increases are not that dramatic.

 

My point is we can't expect SW to continue to make 30, 20 and then 60 million dollars 2 weeks after its been out.  The demand has to die down at some point.  This pace is absolutely historic and I just don't see how it is sustained.  Because right now, it's not on pace for a billion, it's more like sky's the limit.  I believe a 3.5X is realistic and a 4X is very probable.  That puts it at a billion, but I can't get my head around how high it is projected right now.

[CJohn]

That drop is ugly

[stripe]

I am trying to keep calm and not think about 1 billion DOM and you are not helping, Baumer.

 

Let's think about 850M, let's think about 850M, let's think about 850M, let's think about 850M, let's think about 850M...

 

1 billion DOM here we go!