Star Wars Tuesday - 37.3M (Tele/baumer bet for Wednesday drop is on page 24...much to learn one of them still has)

[RichWS]

Over/under on people legitimately disappointed when it doesn't make a billion?

[Harpospoke]

2 hours ago, BK007 said:

90% of the people who saw it would have seen it on another day in its run, but that isn't the issue. The issue is that there is growing falseness of reporting and these records are getting more arbitrary, as Tele wants to call it, when every movie can simply change the paradigm. Look at the UK. Its previews are a joke. 6 day previews lumped into OW? What kind of bullshit is that? What's there to get excited about when the next movie can start at 5pm and break $150m OD? The chase for bigger numbers, bigger everything has led to this substandard quality of reporting. 

 

Also, I say 90% would have seen it on another day as generous. There is always a knock on effect. If the people who would've seen it on Thursday get pushed to Friday, then others get pushed/moved and so on, so forth. There are a lot of die-hards but there are also many people roped in, and there is significant chance to lose a percentage when you move dates and times etc. I never saw TDK or Jurassic World in the cinema because after missing OW, the days never worked out. During Christmas is an even bigger chance of holidays and etc affecting schedules. 

Exactly why I don't mind these previews being counted.   I want to know how many people wanted to see the movie right away.   I don't see any other point to keeping track of the numbers.   So if a movie like this has so much demand that it requires a couple extra hours to meet that immediate demand, that's a good thing to know and a compliment to the movie which is only made possible because we gave the public extra time to cram into theaters.

 

 

2 hours ago, BK007 said:

When movies you dislike or the forum dislikes are doing this, you'll be up in arms. Bias can fuck off. He is reporting the truth, sorry it doesn't fit into SW fanboy narratives. Nothing like fanboys to make all intelligent and worthwhile discussion secondary to arrogant fantasies. 

Well...is "5.5 days" really the truth?    Is it really 5 and a half days?   Or is it 5 days and 5 hours?    Doing quick math, 5 hours is not half a day.   So do you feel like calling him out for exaggerating or are you now not as concerned with accuracy?  

 

You are going down a road that never ends here.   You want accurate reporting of box office....it's never going to happen and never has happened.   These "records" actually don't mean anything at all because you can't compare movies from different time periods.   So if you are upset that you feel SW7 is breaking a record that another movie holds....    Well that other movie only holds the record because of inflation, OS expansion, population growth, expansion of screens, 3D, IMAX, or exchange rates.....it's a losing battle no matter where you decide to stop.  You'll NEVER get to "accuracy".    How do you plan to figure out how many matinee, kid's, and discount tickets were sold for each movie so you can get an accurate count?   Sometimes bad weather effects an OW...what do you do about that?   Is that fair to that movie?

 

In short, this whole box office thing is really just for fun.   Nothing is proven.   Lots of guesswork.   We may as well see what kind of upfront demand SW7 really had.   As you pointed out, I want everyone to have every opportunity to see it as quick as they can so we can see exactly what a Star Wars movie means.   I don't want a sold out show to force someone to see it next week.

[Harpospoke]

1 minute ago, RichWS said:

Over/under on people legitmately disappointed when it doesn't make a billion?

I see that as an icing on the cake type of thing.    Seems too much to actually hope for.

[townzy89]

What i am most upset about is if it made a touch mor on Saturaday it would have all time Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday Grosses.

[RichWS]

I've never been a fan of rolling Thursday shows into the weekend, but I don't really care in the end. That's the way it's been done for three years now. I've gotten used to it.

[terrestrial]

I'm only thinking about:

 

$760,507,626

 

The rest is gravy. I really like Avatar too for varying reasons, it's only a record breaking curiousity thing for now.

 

In the end OW's... never really interested me, to me it is all about final ww, final dom, HV, merchandise, budget, how much the crew/cast gor screwed over via accounting tricks, hat changes in advertising got made and the impact on BO, why certain countries disliked a movie (e.g. bad advertising for said country, bad translation, bias, disrespect of local traditions / POVs,...) and other little business details. But it's really fun to follow the dailies too.

 

 

 

 

 

[JohnnyBravO]

God damn. SW is fucking shit up at the BO and at my theater. Everyday is feeling like a weekend. Exciting time, it's been awhile since I've been this amped about numbersssss!  Yas beach yas. 

[KP1025]

2 minutes ago, townzy89 said:

What i am most upset about is if it made a touch mor on Saturaday it would have all time Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday Grosses.

 

While it's wrong, I was kind of hoping Disney would fudge it. It was so close. Same with not rounding up to $248 million when it was only tens of thousands of dollars away.

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyBravO said:

God damn. SW is fucking shit up at the BO and at my theater. Everyday is feeling like a weekend. Exciting time, it's been awhile since I've been this amped about numbersssss!  Yas beach yas. 

[ecstasy]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyBravO said:

God damn. SW is fucking shit up at the BO and at my theater. Everyday is feeling like a weekend. Exciting time, it's been awhile since I've been this amped about numbersssss!  Yas beach yas. 

[Deedlit]

Just now, setna said:

Very interesting work to compare movies with now, TFA run ; enjoy it!

 

 

All-Time Domestic Box Office Adjusted for Inflation Based on Initial Release Only (self.boxoffice)

enviado hace 5 meses* por JakkuScavenger

I decided to play around a bit and try to give an estimate of what the all-time adjusted for inflation domestic box office chart might look like, if only original releases were counted. As box office mojo doesn't really keep information on movies released multiple times before 1982, for these movies I've done a bit of research and have explained how I've reached the numbers below the chart. I've only listed the top 20, because I found the process of finding box office runs of older movies very hard and frustrating. If there's interest, I might extend it to top 50 in the future.

 

#	Movie	Adjusted	Actuals
1	Titanic	$1,042,168,600	600,788,188
2	The Sound of Music	$1,037,145,000	$132,000,000 2
3	E.T.	$1,009,631,300	359,197,037
4	Doctor Zhivago	$1,007,979,900	111,721,910 1
5	The Ten Commandments	893,200,000	$55,000,000 2
6	The Exorcist	$838,053,500	$193,000,000
7	Jaws	$796,156,000	$201,000,000 3
8	Ben-Hur	$795,760,000	$74,000,000 1
9	Star Wars	$784,826,500	$215,537,332 4
10	Avatar	$778,741,600	$749,766,139
11	The Sting	$723,840,000	$156,000,000 1
12	Jurassic Park	$699,991,400	$357,067,947
13	The Graduate	$694,381,000	$104,642,560
14	The Phantom Menace	$688,785,500	$431,088,295
15	Gone with the Wind	$676,666,667	$20,000,000 5
16	Return of the Jedi	$657,585,100	$252,583,617
17	The Empire Strikes Back	$640,361,400	$209,398,025
18	The Godfather	$638,609,000	$133,698,921
19	Forest Gump	$637,790,400	$329,694,499
20	Raiders of the Lost Ark	$627,181,700	$212,222,025

1 - I couldn't find evidence that these movies have had a wide re-release.
2 - Estimated by me based on rentals from the original release and subsequent releases.
3 - In January, 1978 it was reported that Star Wars had outgrossed Jaws at the domestic box office. Star Wars had grossed $195 million by December, 1977 and $207 million by February, 1978. $201 million seems kind of in the middle of those two. Could be higher, could be lower.
4 - Last reported gross for Star Wars, before July, 1978 re-release. It's quite possible that the movie earned more than that before its first re-release, but there is no way to know for sure.
5 - As reported by IMDb.

Edit: I found a mistake in calculating The Sound of Music which has now been corrected.

 

 

IMDB seems to have more detailed information on some of these movies:

 

Sound of Music (1965) 126,505,564

The Ten Commandments (1956) 68,234,000

Jaws (1975) 191,741,308

The Empire Strikes Back (1980) 181,353,855

 

Note that the 209M figure for The Empire Strikes Back includes a 1981 rerelease.

 

I didn't see any data for early releases for the Exorcist, but Wikipedia indicates that there were several:

 

The film earned $66.3 million in distributors' domestic (US/CAN) rentals during its theatrical release in 1974, becoming the second most popular film of that year (trailing The Sting).^[58] After several reissues, the film eventually grossed $232,671,011 in North America...

 

66.3M in rentals is also listed in IMDB, as is 89M which is presumably the rental figure after a pre-1980 rerelease.  So the gross for the first release is surely much less than 193M.

 

Many early blockbuster movies stayed in theaters for years, for example The Sound of Music stayed in theaters from March 1965 to November 1969, over 4.5 years!  So adjusting the film based on it's year of release will overestimate these earlier films.

 

I'm curious why The Sound of Music and Dr. Zhivago wound up with such close adjusted figures, despite The Sound of Music having considerably higher box office, and Dr. Zhivago being released nine months after The Sound of Music.

 

Finally, what kind of inflation are you adjusting for? (ticket price, CPI, something else?)

 

[baumer]

17 minutes ago, stripe said:

I am trying to keep calm and not think about 1 billion DOM and you are not helping, Baumer.

 

Let's think about 850M, let's think about 850M, let's think about 850M, let's think about 850M, let's think about 850M...

 

1 billion DOM here we go!

 

 

 

For me, my number is 865 million.  That gives it a 3.5X coming off a record setting opening weekend,.

 

If it passes that I'll be stoked.  

 

Spoiler

But let's not kid ourselves, it's going past that.

 

[setna]

11 minutes ago, Deedlit said:

 

IMDB seems to have more detailed information on some of these movies:

 

Sound of Music (1965) 126,505,564

The Ten Commandments (1956) 68,234,000

Jaws (1975) 191,741,308

The Empire Strikes Back (1980) 181,353,855

 

Note that the 209M figure for The Empire Strikes Back includes a 1981 rerelease.

 

I didn't see any data for early releases for the Exorcist, but Wikipedia indicates that there were several:

 

The film earned $66.3 million in distributors' domestic (US/CAN) rentals during its theatrical release in 1974, becoming the second most popular film of that year (trailing The Sting).^[58] After several reissues, the film eventually grossed $232,671,011 in North America...

 

66.3M in rentals is also listed in IMDB, as is 89M which is presumably the rental figure after a pre-1980 rerelease.  So the gross for the first release is surely much less than 193M.

 

Many early blockbuster movies stayed in theaters for years, for example The Sound of Music stayed in theaters from March 1965 to November 1969, over 4.5 years!  So adjusting the film based on it's year of release will overestimate these earlier films.

 

I'm curious why The Sound of Music and Dr. Zhivago wound up with such close adjusted figures, despite The Sound of Music having considerably higher box office, and Dr. Zhivago being released nine months after The Sound of Music.

 

Finally, what kind of inflation are you adjusting for? (ticket price, CPI, something else?)

 

I didní do this article, i found it in the net.

But thanks for your corrections, are very interesting.

I´ll go on searching for more data about inflations adjusting and posting them.

Anyway, it seems that Titanic was the most amazing run ever without any re-shows.

[eddyxx]

8 hours ago, RichWS said:

I'm playing too. I might be tired of it but I don't expect one man to defeat an entire running joke empire.

 

Looks like your efforts are....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Puts on Sunglasses)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#Crumbling

 

Edited December 23, 2015 by eddyxx

[GirafficPark]

Bugger, I was going to go again at 13.30 today, its sold out! How often does a 13.30 showing sell out here in the UK in a small city with 3 cinemas? Never.

[John Harris]

1 hour ago, setna said:

Very interesting work to compare movies with now, TFA run ; enjoy it!

 

 

All-Time Domestic Box Office Adjusted for Inflation Based on Initial Release Only (self.boxoffice)

enviado hace 5 meses* por JakkuScavenger

I decided to play around a bit and try to give an estimate of what the all-time adjusted for inflation domestic box office chart might look like, if only original releases were counted. As box office mojo doesn't really keep information on movies released multiple times before 1982, for these movies I've done a bit of research and have explained how I've reached the numbers below the chart. I've only listed the top 20, because I found the process of finding box office runs of older movies very hard and frustrating. If there's interest, I might extend it to top 50 in the future.

 

#	Movie	Adjusted	Actuals
1	Titanic	$1,042,168,600	600,788,188
2	The Sound of Music	$1,037,145,000	$132,000,000 2
3	E.T.	$1,009,631,300	359,197,037
4	Doctor Zhivago	$1,007,979,900	111,721,910 1
5	The Ten Commandments	893,200,000	$55,000,000 2
6	The Exorcist	$838,053,500	$193,000,000
7	Jaws	$796,156,000	$201,000,000 3
8	Ben-Hur	$795,760,000	$74,000,000 1
9	Star Wars	$784,826,500	$215,537,332 4
10	Avatar	$778,741,600	$749,766,139
11	The Sting	$723,840,000	$156,000,000 1
12	Jurassic Park	$699,991,400	$357,067,947
13	The Graduate	$694,381,000	$104,642,560
14	The Phantom Menace	$688,785,500	$431,088,295
15	Gone with the Wind	$676,666,667	$20,000,000 5
16	Return of the Jedi	$657,585,100	$252,583,617
17	The Empire Strikes Back	$640,361,400	$209,398,025
18	The Godfather	$638,609,000	$133,698,921
19	Forest Gump	$637,790,400	$329,694,499
20	Raiders of the Lost Ark	$627,181,700	$212,222,025

1 - I couldn't find evidence that these movies have had a wide re-release.
2 - Estimated by me based on rentals from the original release and subsequent releases.
3 - In January, 1978 it was reported that Star Wars had outgrossed Jaws at the domestic box office. Star Wars had grossed $195 million by December, 1977 and $207 million by February, 1978. $201 million seems kind of in the middle of those two. Could be higher, could be lower.
4 - Last reported gross for Star Wars, before July, 1978 re-release. It's quite possible that the movie earned more than that before its first re-release, but there is no way to know for sure.
5 - As reported by IMDb.

Edit: I found a mistake in calculating The Sound of Music which has now been corrected.

 

 

I think The Avengers should be on your list. Adjusted, it's over $640 mil and hasn't had any re-releases...?

[CJohn]

I am expecting a 15-20% drop today.

[Nasok]

2 minutes ago, CJ Ren said:

I am expecting a 15-20% drop today.

I think flat 

[Lordmandeep]

The front loading begins 

[tokila]

37 minutes ago, CJ Ren said:

I am expecting a 15-20% drop today.

The 23rd typically preforms pretty well.  I think TFA can maybe manage a 9% drop to around 34mil. 

Edited December 23, 2015 by tokila