Christmas Eve Awakens: SW 27.5-28.5m (Rth) So this is how Avatar dies, with thunderous applause

[Spidey Freak]

Favorite thread title so far!

[Lordmandeep]

someone delete the spoilers

[marveldcfox]

Posted 7 minutes ago · 

Finally watched the movie. Holy shit..didn't expect to love it so much. So glad I didn't follow this movie since its inception. Could very well be my favourite star wars film. Loved everything. The characters, the story, the drama, the action, the big moments...oh man. Last time I felt like this was when Avatar came out, but I think I liked this more.

 

10/10

 

Will watch it again for sure. I missed the first 10 minutes because of stupid friend, but whatever..gives me more reasons to watch it again.

 

 

Merry Christmas.

[Finnick]

4 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

 

If you want to spoil yourself, go to the spoiler thread:

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20755-spoilers-the-force-awakens-spoiler-thread-spoilers-allowed-you-have-been-warned-do-not-enter-if-you-dont-want-to-be-spoiled/

Thanks,

[The Stingray]

8 hours ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

8 hours ago, Rth said:

27.5-28.5

[terrestrial]

@marveldcfox

I think your post is in the wrong thread. Huh?

Why can I not deactivate the bold thingie?

[GiantCALBears]

Nice to see mojo get the official estimate out early for once, my 26-28 predict wasn't far off! Can't wait for some numbers later today, going to be HUUUUUUUGE.

[Lordmandeep]

Remember it can increase by 80% and still break 50 million.

 

That would give it a 150 million weekend. 

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, LinksterAC said:

 

On gut instinct, I think I'm right there with you.  

 

The one thing I can't reconcile is why it hasn't shown any signs of burning off demand during the week.  Indicators like its Sunday to Wednesday drop are essentially equal to Avatar's.  It's Sunday to Christmas Eve Thursday drop is even stronger than Avatar's, and Avatar was more of an adult-skewing film than SW7.  

 

That Christmas Eve hold suggests an explosion of business today.  It's actually the best indicator to me so far that the this movie has sustained demand from the past weekend.  The Wednesday increase is also another sign that this movie is perhaps doing business at some theoretical market limit for each one of these days.  

 

I think $160M is a reasonable number for this weekend, but with this movie, we can't really predict anything until credible evidence starts rolling in later today. 

160 is reasonable and amazing. But Boxoffice.com and BOM are saying 167 and 178. I have a feeling there will be dissapointment in this forum and I'm saying there shouldn't be. 160 is far exceeding original expectation and would be in line not with avatar but what it's done this week, seat capacity and based on burn off that would prevent a higher number. Monday will below 40m, still gigantic, but won't increase like avatar did. That is a prediction of the burn. 

Just saw the big short. They said people kept buying houses at ridiculous prices because the masses believe what is happening now will continue to happen.  I was a trader. I go would go with flow and make good money. Big money can be made in predicting the change in trend before it happens with a marker. They crushed it in the big short. Millions were devastated because they didn't see it coming.  We will be passing 50m ticket sold this weekend that's my marker for demand an numbers to "slow down" a bit

Edited December 25, 2015 by No Prisoners

[Plain Old Tele]

I thought it wouldn't need to be said, but just for clarification for some of our newer posters:

 

DO NOT POST OR ASK SPOILER QUESTIONS IN THIS THREAD! We have a whole spoiler-filled thread for exactly this sort of thing, but if you post un-tagged spoilers elsewhere, you will be given warning points and/or banned.

[POTUS 2020]

55

59

51

36

36

34

30

[GiantCALBears]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Remember it can increase by 80% and still break 50 million.

 

That would give it a 150 million weekend. 

$50m today or it's a mega flop :(.

[RamblinRed]

22 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Last time we will see this chart in that way, as now the est. Opening week for SW 7 is $391.05m:

 

Old record:

OPENING WEEKS
(Friday – Thursday Opening Weeks)
 

• $70+ M

Note: Sort by Rank or any other column to view all wide releases.
 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Opening*	% of Total	Theaters	Average	Total Gross^	Date**
1	Jurassic World	Uni.	$296,211,625	45.4%	4,274	$69,305	$652,270,625	6/12/15
2	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$270,019,373	43.3%	4,349	$62,088	$623,357,910	5/4/12
3	The Dark Knight	WB	$238,615,211	44.7%	4,366	$54,653	$533,345,358	7/18/08
4	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$235,655,468	51.3%	4,276	$55,111	$459,005,868	5/1/15

This is an interesting chart. if you look at the top 3 which are recent huge blockbusters with strong WOM, they avg 44.5% of their total run in their first week.

If you apply that to TFA you get approx 880M for its total run with a range of 861-903.

[LinksterAC]

8 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

160 is reasonable and amazing. But Boxoffice.com and BOM are saying 167 and 178. I have a feeling there will be dissapointment in this forum and I'm saying there shouldn't be. 160 is far exceeding original expectation and would be in line not with avatar but what it's done this week, seat capacity and based on burn off that would prevent a higher number. Monday will below 40m, still gigantic, but won't increase like avatar did. That is a prediction of the burn. 

Just saw the big short. They said people kept buying houses at ridiculous prices because the masses believe what is happening now will continue to happen.  I was a trader. I go would go with flow and make good money. Big money can be made in predicting the change in trend before it happens with a marker. They crushed it in the big short. Millions were devastated because they didn't see it coming.  We will be passing 50m ticket sold this weekend that's my marker for demand an numbers to "slow down" a bit

 

Best to predict with your head, not with your heart, I agree.  

 

Unfortunately, this weekend is one of the rare weekends when my head is telling me a movie will significantly outperform what my gut will allow me believe.  

 

Even $150M is already so much higher than any other second weekend, it's hard to believe it will get to that number.  

 

But if you look solely at the patterns of its performance so far, $170M - $185M stands up to scrutiny. 

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

This is an interesting chart. if you look at the top 3 which are recent huge blockbusters with strong WOM, they avg 44.5% of their total run in their first week.

If you apply that to TFA you get approx 880M for its total run with a range of 861-903.

 

Yes. But the difference is the season in the year, usually other rules apply during the 'Holiday Season' (5th BO season). I think it's too early to know anything, as no typical rules might apply

[Dark 33Legend of the Sith]

I am of a little different thought than some here. I think today is going to be the Gargantuan # that people will be knocked over by. I think it can hit 60 today.  I think Christmas is a day many people planned a long time ago to see. This is going to be their family Christmas event. I think people are going to come out like crazy today.

 

Then I think Saturday's increase will be a bit more muted and get back to normal Sunday.

 

Maybe

Fri.  61

Sat. 65

Sun. 53

 

179 for the weekend.

 

Could be wrong, by my gut says big Christmas day.

Edited December 25, 2015 by Dark 33Legend of the Sith

[smerfy01]

So sad it didn't hit $30 million and get all those delicious records. Oh well, live by the sword die by the sword.

It'll do $55 million today >:)

 

Edit: Does everyone here realize that this actually has a shot at the Friday single day record? Like...the sans-previews record? A week after it comes out? Wtf.

Edited December 25, 2015 by smerfy01

[Ash Skywalker]

It's TRUE, all of it. The wait, the excitement, the matinee show, the whistles, the awe, the emotion, the fucking 3-D. 
WONDERFUL. I'm blown away. 

[GiantCALBears]

MJ2 did 2/3 of the business that MJ1 did over the past week (10m v 15m). Pesky TFA!

[smerfy01]

3 minutes ago, Ash Skywalker said:

It's TRUE, all of it. The wait, the excitement, the matinee show, the whistles, the awe, the emotion, the fucking 3-D. 
WONDERFUL. I'm blown away. 

How'd the theater look when you were there? Full? Empty? Filled with spoopy ghosts?