Christmas Eve Awakens: SW 27.5-28.5m (Rth) So this is how Avatar dies, with thunderous applause

[Klingo]

Just now, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

Just now, Rth said:

27.5-28.5

[terrestrial]

57 minutes ago, Dark Jedi Master 007 said:

This gives it the #2 Highest Non-Opening Thursday Gross Ever behind Transformers: ROTF, which was in its 2nd day when it nabbed the record. TFA is in its 7th and it almost took the record on the one day we all knew it was going to drop. This film's just on another level. 

 

Yep. To give a feel for the previous details....

 

TOP SINGLE DAY NON-OPENING GROSSES BY DAY OF THE WEEK

• Thursday

Note: This chart only shows $8 million+ days regardless of sorting.

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Single Day Gross	Theaters	Average	Date / Days in Release		Gross to Date*	Final Gross*
1	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	P/DW	$29,094,472	4,234	$6,872	6/25/09	2	$91.1	$402.1
2	Despicable Me 2	Uni.	$24,546,980	3,956	$6,205	7/04/13	2	$59.6	$368.1
3	The Twilight Saga: Eclipse	Sum.	$24,211,138	4,416	$5,483	7/01/10	2	$92.7	$300.5
4	Spider-Man 2	Sony	$23,812,920	4,152	$5,735	7/01/04	2	$64.3	$373.6
5	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	WB	$22,011,215	4,275	$5,149	7/16/09	2	$80.2	$302.0
6	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	P/DW	$21,540,018	4,011	$5,370	6/30/11	2	$64.8	$352.4
7	Transformers	P/DW	$19,177,089	4,011	$4,781	7/05/07	3	$84.9	$319.2
8	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	WB	$18,374,405	4,181	$4,395	7/12/07	2	$62.6	$292.0
9	Jurassic World	Uni.	$17,822,580	4,274	$4,170	6/18/15	7	$296.2	$652.3
10	Independence Day	Fox	$17,343,388	2,880	$6,022	7/04/96	2	$45.9	$306.2

[terrestrial]

DP vie forum down

 

TOP SINGLE DAY NON-OPENING GROSSES BY DAY OF THE WEEK

• Friday

Note: This chart only shows $16 million+ days regardless of sorting.

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Single Day Gross	Theaters	Average	Date / Days in Release		Gross to Date*	Final Gross*
1	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	P/DW	$36,740,666	4,234	$8,678	6/26/09	3	$127.9	$402.1
2	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	Fox	$33,529,613	3,661	$9,159	5/20/05	2	$83.5	$380.3
3	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	P/DW	$32,988,883	4,088	$8,070	7/01/11	3	$97.8	$352.4
4	Spider-Man 2	Sony	$32,452,342	4,152	$7,816	7/02/04	3	$96.7	$373.6
5	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	LGF	$31,570,448	4,163	$7,584	11/29/13	8	$253.7	$424.7
6	The Matrix Reloaded	WB	$31,330,393	3,603	$8,696	5/16/03	2	$73.8	$281.6
7	Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull	Par.	$30,571,275	4,260	$7,176	5/23/08	2	$55.6	$317.1
8	Despicable Me 2	Uni.	$30,477,125	3,997	$7,625	7/05/13	3	$90.0	$368.1
9	American Sniper	WB	$30,338,488	3,555	$8,534	1/16/15	23	$33.8	$350.1
10	The Hangover Part II	WB	$29,982,180	3,615	$8,294	5/27/11	2	$61.6	$254.5
11	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$29,223,517	4,349	$6,720	5/11/12	8	$299.2	$623.4
12	Jurassic World	Uni.	$29,114,435	4,291	$6,785	6/19/15	8	$325.3	$652.3
13	Shrek 2	DW	$28,340,295	4,163	$6,808	5/21/04	3	$49.3	$441.2
14	The Twilight Saga: Eclipse	Sum.	$28,153,316	4,468	$6,301	7/02/10	3	$120.9	$300.5
15	Frozen	BV	$26,840,236	3,742	$7,173	11/29/13	8	$53.4	$400.7
16	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	WB	$26,820,572	4,325	$6,201	7/17/09	3	$107.0	$302.0
17	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	WB	$25,841,985	4,285	$6,031	7/13/07	3	$88.4	$292.0
18	Avatar	Fox	$25,274,008	3,461	$7,303	1/01/10	15	$308.9	$749.8
19	Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones	Fox	$24,404,757	3,161	$7,721	5/17/02	2	$54.5	$302.2
20	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1	LGF	$24,199,442	4,151	$5,830	11/28/14	8	$192.9	$337.1
21	The Dark Knight	WB	$23,232,292	4,366	$5,321	7/25/08	8	$261.8	$533.3
22	Avatar	Fox	$23,095,046	3,456	$6,683	12/25/09	8	$160.2	$749.8

Edited December 25, 2015 by terrestrial

[JonathanLB]

In my area, almost every theater on Fandango has at least 1 sellout already for Christmas day. The two local IMAX theaters have 5 sellouts for 8 total show times. It's going to be a big day! The walk-up business should be pretty incredible as well. 

[spizzer]

Huge.  Not sure what to make of this; should we assume a slightly weaker Christmas Day increase because Thursday kept higher pace than expected or just assume the usual?

 

28.0M Thursday

58.8M Friday (+110%)

70.6M Saturday (+20%)

57.9M Sunday (-18%)

 

187.2M weekend.  The only thing I'd question is the Friday jump.

 

Avatar fell 19.9% on its 2nd Monday.  Coming off a 57.9M Sunday, this could fall 30% and still crack 40M on Monday.  Relatively standard pace throughout the week from that 30% drop would put it on pace for a 125-130M 3rd weekend and 850M by the Jan. 3 Sunday.

[tokila]

47 minutes ago, blackspider said:

Can't wait to see how big Friday goes. The best 2nd Friday currently is Catching Fire with 31.5m. Just another record TFA is gonna shit on.

 

TFA's 3rd Friday could beat that too. 

[peludo]

3 minutes ago, spizzer said:

Huge.  Not sure what to make of this; should we assume a slightly weaker Christmas Day increase because Thursday kept higher pace than expected or just assume the usual?

 

28.0M Thursday

58.8M Friday (+110%)

70.6M Saturday (+20%)

57.9M Sunday (-18%)

 

187.2M weekend.  The only thing I'd question is the Friday jump.

 

Avatar fell 19.9% on its 2nd Monday.  Coming off a 57.9M Sunday, this could fall 30% and still crack 40M on Monday.  Relatively standard pace throughout the week from that 30% drop would put it on pace for a 125-130M 3rd weekend and 850M by the Jan. 3 Sunday.

That would mean to beat the Saturday record held by JW...

[JonathanLB]

5 minutes ago, peludo said:

That would mean to beat the Saturday record held by JW...

 

Well we didn't do it the first time, why can't we come back around for it?! LOL, just joking I would crap myself. 

[spizzer]

15 minutes ago, peludo said:

That would mean to beat the Saturday record held by JW...

 

Pretty good chance at the Sunday record as well.  

[tokila]

Friday looks well under last weekend in Hawaii. I am only basing this on Fandango. There are no sellouts on the island (8-9 Cinemas). One theater does assigned seating so I looked at availablity. Morning to early afternoon showings are 40-50% sold. But evening is like maybe 10%. That said I think Hawaii is a weak market for Star Wars, I just dont think it has the history here it does other places. I should also add that they have a crap ton of showings though. If it was just one every hour there would be some sellouts at the assigned seating venue. 

 

Would really love it if someone who sees hard data can validate my belief that Hawaii is a weak market for TFA. 

Edited December 25, 2015 by tokila

[B J]

early friday tally

 

sold out: 10

showings: 49

 

yet another strong start, lets see how the day goes

[wileECoyote]

2 hours ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

2 hours ago, Rth said:

27.5-28.5

 

Nice.  Woke up for a little and got an early Box Office Christmas gift.  

 

Merry Christmas everyone 

[department store basement]

Just wondering, how do you guys track sellouts on Fandango? (I don't use it.)

[tokila]

4 minutes ago, department store basement said:

Just wondering, how do you guys track sellouts on Fandango? (I don't use it.)

I could totally be missing something, but if you click on a theater and dates it will show you showtimes, if they are grayed out that means it is soldout.

 

Someone please correct if wrong.

[Nasok]

@Rth is just drunk. It can't be lower than 30m

[BoxOfficeZ]

I already see two sellouts for christmas morning here. Ridiculous. 

[baumer]

The pace this is one is something we have obviously never seen before.  It has to slow down eventually.  I know Avatar jumped more than 100% on its second Friday but can SW really keep that kind of pace going after its record breaking first week?  I'm not being a pessimist but I'm going to say that it has to slow down ever so slightly this weekend.  Maybe it only jumps 90% today instead of 100%  Even if it jumps 90% today and then 15% tomorrow and then drops 15% Sunday you get 165 mill.  That's a staggering and we are now officially into looney tunes land, none of this is making any sense.  If it really does 150 or more this weekend, a billion is a foregone conclusion.  You can start looking at ANH adjusted.

[wildphantom]

We need to measure our expectations for this weekend. People will be disappointed if it doesn't hit $150 million - which is just crazy. 

I've genuinely no idea what's going to happen. I can see a bigger drop, but I can also see a stupidly good hold. 

[baumer]

You guys realize that if it does continue behaving like Avatar going forward for the rest of the year, it will be at about 860 mill by January 3rd.  That's just stupid.

[LinksterAC]

1 minute ago, wildphantom said:

We need to measure our expectations for this weekend. People will be disappointed if it doesn't hit $150 million - which is just crazy. 

I've genuinely no idea what's going to happen. I can see a bigger drop, but I can also see a stupidly good hold. 

 

I can't bring myself to predict anything over $150.  It just doesn't seem possible for such a big opener to be that leggy.  

 

But it's seven days in and this thing has been leggier than frigging Avatar, and history suggests that the post-Christmas week is a bigger performer than pre-Christmas.  

 

So like you I really have no idea what to predict. This run so far is unlike anything I've ever seen.

 

You must unlearn what you have learned.