Wednesday The Force Awakens Estimates - 28M (Rth) | 27.2 - 27.9 (DHD)

[FlashMaster659]

1 minute ago, RamblinRed said:

35% feels steep. Hope you end up being wrong on that one Baumer. I've got it at 26% drop. Looking at 12/31 for the last 10 years, usually the biggest films decrease some (though some of the smaller ones increase). But anything over about 20% is a pretty big drop. 

I'm dropping more due to CFB playoffs. But if it drops over 30% I would consider that pretty severe.

 

Hoping Forbes 28.1M number for Wed is correct. That would be very strong.

 

I would love for it to pass JW today, but it feels like it is going to come up just short and Disney has certainly showed no signs of fudging anything (which is probably partially due to Movies being just one part of a much larger empire).

Yep. It's correct.  

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, RamblinRed said:

35% feels steep. Hope you end up being wrong on that one Baumer. I've got it at 26% drop. Looking at 12/31 for the last 10 years, usually the biggest films decrease some (though some of the smaller ones increase). But anything over about 20% is a pretty big drop. 

I'm dropping more due to CFB playoffs. But if it drops over 30% I would consider that pretty severe.

 

Hoping Forbes 28.1M number for Wed is correct. That would be very strong.

 

I would love for it to pass JW today, but it feels like it is going to come up just short and Disney has certainly showed no signs of fudging anything (which is probably partially due to Movies being just one part of a much larger empire).

 

Historical data is only helpful to a point. College football playoff just started last year and it was on New Year's Day instead of New Year's Eve. Ratings for it last year were incredible and I would expect the same again this year. It will hurt this afternoon and evening's gross. The good thing is hopefully the increase on New Year's Day will be a lot better.

[GiantCALBears]

13 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

I think the college football playoff will have a bigger effect than theaters shutting down. The first game starts at 4 PM Eastern/1 PM Pacific. Pretty much going to kill the matinee shows out west and in the central/mountain time zones. 

As a result, bump is going to look really impressive on New Years. Who cares about a meaningless Rose & Sugar bowls?

[Impact]

4 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice

POINT BREAK earned an estimated $1.425M on Wednesday. 6-day domestic total is $14.355M. #PointBreak

Yay! Oh wait,

Film was going to bomb to begin with! (They changed the premise big time apparently, and really, a surfing movie in the middle of the Winter?)

[GiantCALBears]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Historical data is only helpful to a point. College football playoff just started last year and it was on New Year's Day instead of New Year's Eve. Ratings for it last year were incredible and I would expect the same again this year. It will hurt this afternoon and evening's gross. The good thing is hopefully the increase on New Year's Day will be a lot better.

I actually think ratings are going to be down sizably from last year but that's because people are heading to parties ESP during the 2nd game. 

[Impact]

Asked this in the weekend predict thread-but what film will be the first film to be number one at the box office over Star Wars for the weekend?

[#ED]

About 64-64M WW Wednesday.

[baumer]

Im also predicting a 100% bump tomorrow and a 100  mill weekend

[FlashMaster659]

Just now, Impact said:

Asked this in the weekend predict thread-but what film will be the first film to be number one at the box office over Star Wars for the weekend?

Either Ride Along 2 or KFP3.

[terrestrial]

WB:
Point Break (2015)            $1,425,000    -13%    2,910    --          $490    $14,355,000    
Creed                                  $870,000    -3%    1,518     -915    $573    $98,757,000       
In the Heart of the Sea         $215,000     -1%       685    -2418    $314    $22,979,000    

 

Focus:
The Danish Girl                    $331,000      2%     440          359    $752      $4,201,735    
Suffragette                              $3,000      0%      23           -52    $130      $4,655,143   

 

Open Road:
Spotlight                              $263,502       7%    480         -345    $549    $25,652,472

 

 

TYPO at BO.com (I only copied)

Edited December 31, 2015 by terrestrial

[Fancyarcher]

1 minute ago, Impact said:

Yay! Oh wait,

Film was going to bomb to begin with! (They changed the premise big time apparently, and really, a surfing movie in the middle of the Winter?)

 

Point Break was the remake practically nobody was asking for.

[Impact]

Just now, Daniel Dylan Davis said:

 

Point Break was the remake practically nobody was asking for.

They should of just gave it a different title-the villains are not even ex presidents anymore!

[Daxtreme]

Quote

36.7 intl

 

Yesterday was 37.7

2.7% drop

 

Great numbers

 

Last week, WED was 38.4, so 4.4% drop week-to-week

[Fancyarcher]

3 minutes ago, Impact said:

They should of just gave it a different title-the villains are not even ex presidents anymore!

 

I've heard it's basically a remake in title only, and that F&F is a far better remake. Heh!

Edited December 31, 2015 by Daniel Dylan Davis

[DCpete]

4 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

WB:
Point Break (2015)            $1,425,000    -13%    2,910    --          $490    $14,355,000    
Creed                                   $87,000    -90%    1,518     -915      $57    $98,757,000       
In the Heart of the Sea         $215,000     -1%       685    -2418    $314    $22,979,000    

 

Focus:
The Danish Girl                    $331,000      2%     440          359    $752      $4,201,735    
Suffragette                              $3,000      0%      23           -52    $130      $4,655,143   

 

Open Road:
Spotlight                              $263,502       7%    480         -345    $549    $25,652,472

Can you confirm that Creed number? Seems like an enormous oversight (or Drop!)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Based on a $28 million Wednesday, I'd be surprised if today came in less than $20 million. No matter what the final number is today, it is shaping up for a $100 million weekend. Depending on the final number, Avatar could go down Monday and will for sure by Tuesday. We should be at $850 million by the January 10th!

[Dementeleus]

@GiantCALBears and @redfirebird2008 are right. College football is gonna be huge today, I forgot about that. It's the semi-finals with high-profile teams from the east coast, South, and Midwest. 

[redfirebird2008]

11 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

I actually think ratings are going to be down sizably from last year but that's because people are heading to parties ESP during the 2nd game. 

 

Yeah that's possible. Last year you had two powerhouse teams against each other in primetime (Alabama vs. Ohio State) on New Year's Day. Definitely will be plenty of people partying tonight of course. I think where the playoff will hurt box office is mainly with that first game in the afternoon/early evening before people head to their parties. Instead of going to the movies before a party they will be watching football.

[terrestrial]

3 minutes ago, DCpete said:

Can you confirm that Creed number? Seems like an enormous oversight (or Drop!)

I had copied it, they already adjusted to the correct numbers, as did I in the post you quoted.

 

Thank you, I might have missed that!

 

STX:
Secret in Their Eyes               $7,919      -8%       72      -151      $110      $20,063,834    

 

[Caladbolg]

43 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

13 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

35% feels steep. Hope you end up being wrong on that one Baumer.

 

It does seem steep but a possibility. Since New Years Eve normally sees 20% or more drops, add in the College Football Playoff it could impact movies. CFP starts at 4pm (Eastern) and another game starts at 8pm ET, so unless a ton people go this morning then yeah.  If it does drop that hard hopefully it makes it back up with a bigger than "normal"  Friday bump.