IronJimbo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 2 hours ago, VenomXXR said: $34.2 million is lower than I had hoped. Looks like TFA will only beat Avatar by $25 million this weekend 4th week will be close (Avatr has small chance of winning) 5,6,7,8th all too Avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) 2 hours ago, RogueLeader said: You still think that 1 billion is still feasible? Seems substantially less likely. A 40% drop next weekend would be too much for the film to get to 1 billion. How would the math even work? In my model simply changing next week to a 41% drop affects the trajectory of the following weeks. Doing this sets the model to 963 mil on Feb 7 and still making solid money. (1 mil weekdays, 6 mil weekend total). If it is at 963 feb 7 and still making a decent take it would likely crawl past 1 billion. Probably end up like 1.025 bil or so. A 50% drop next weekend and we are looking a 915 mil on the same day, but only making 6-700k a day and 4-5 mil on weekend. In this case it would crawl to 950mil. Edited January 2, 2016 by tokila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 4 hours ago, No Prisoners said: 90 million is a great number, but if it's an indication of demand burning off faster than hoped, 1B begins to fade. It's a magic number. Regardless, DHD has been consistently under so let's not break our eggs before they're layed. Yeqa, but keep in mind, no one thought a billion was even possible...not even with the 247 OW. It was us, the forum members, myself included, who started saying it was going to happen. An opening weekend record holder has never had more than a 3.5X. SW is going to destroy this number too (865 mill). It could hit a billion but lets say it stalls out at 950....that's a 3.86X off a record opening weekend....another record that probably won't be touched for another decade or two. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said: Yeqa, but keep in mind, no one thought a billion was even possible...not even with the 247 OW. It was us, the forum members, myself included, who started saying it was going to happen. An opening weekend record holder has never had more than a 3.5X. SW is going to destroy this number too (865 mill). It could hit a billion but lets say it stalls out at 950....that's a 3.86X off a record opening weekend....another record that probably won't be touched for another decade or two. Avatar 2, 300mOW, 1.2b DOM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: 4th week will be close (Avatr has small chance of winning) 5,6,7,8th all too Avatar But that only makes sense. When you are ahead of Avatar at the same point in their run by 300 million, it's obvious that avatar is going to have higher coming weekends because it has that 300 million to make up. SW will probably fall by 38-45% next weekend. So Avatar will probably have the higher weekend. But that film is irrelevant now. Their paths are no longer in synch. TFA is going down a path that Avatar can't follow and its breaking Avatar's heart. Right now Jake is telling Rey that she turned the people against him and she is replying that you did that to yourself. It looks like we will have to wait until Tuesday before we play this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GwjfUFyY6M 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: Avatar 2, 300mOW, 1.2b DOM Closer to half of each, maybe even a third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Baumer Fett said: It looks like we will have to wait until Tuesday before we play this: you are a bad bad man ( I like that ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) dp Edited January 2, 2016 by terrestrial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 8 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: Closer to half of each, maybe even a third. to be fair: Avatar started under it's potential based on the bad weather than. But the buzz about the number it reached still might have helped to shor to get rolling (as in BO records the next weeks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 12 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: Closer to half of each, maybe even a third. 100-150m OW, 400-600m DOM... This is your prediction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 re-tweet? Friday 2ND UPDATE, 11:42PM: Early Friday PM industry figures show Disney’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens making as much as $35M today, raising its cume through 15 days to $687M. What does this mean? It means that Force Awakens flew past the No. 2 and No. 3 all-time domestic grossing titles Titanic ($658.7M) and Jurassic World ($652.27M) in the same day. By end of Sunday, Force Awakens’ total is projected to stand between $744.8M-$746M, just $14.5M-$15.7M short of Avatar‘s all-time domestic record of $760.5M. Should these figures hold up, this would put Force Awakens in a position to own the all-time crown by end of Monday.... http://deadline.com/2016/01/weekend-box-office-star-wars-force-awakens-hateful-eight-new-years-2016-1201674917/?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5687bbc204d30102685b452b&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFanaticGuy34 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) Well, the one way for Avatar 2 to make $600M-700M+ is that if it's as good as the first one, (if not better than the first one).....then we could say that $600M is doable.....but if it's not good at all, it won't happen. Then again...we might be in for a surprise when that film comes out. Still...i think with great WOM (if it gets it) then even $700M DOM is doable. Edited January 2, 2016 by MrFanaticGuy34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, terrestrial said: re-tweet? Friday 2ND UPDATE, 11:42PM: Early Friday PM industry figures show Disney’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens making as much as $35M today, raising its cume through 15 days to $687M. What does this mean? It means that Force Awakens flew past the No. 2 and No. 3 all-time domestic grossing titles Titanic ($658.7M) and Jurassic World ($652.27M) in the same day. By end of Sunday, Force Awakens’ total is projected to stand between $744.8M-$746M, just $14.5M-$15.7M short of Avatar‘s all-time domestic record of $760.5M. Should these figures hold up, this would put Force Awakens in a position to own the all-time crown by end of Monday.... Unreal!!!! Two in the same day? Absolutely incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 1 minute ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said: Well, the one way for Avatar 2 to make $600M-700M+ is that if it's as good as the first one, (if not better than the first one).....then we could say that $600M is doable.....but if it's not good, it won't happen. Then again...we might be in for a surprise when that film comes out. You realise to my ears you've just told me that it will make over 600m+ The film will be better than the first, Cameron sequels or films never disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cochofles Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The one thing about which we can all agree is that Avatar 2 will be a gigantic worldwide hit. How gigantic? No idea, but it will be another insanely successful Cameron joint, no doubt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: 100-150m OW, 400-600m DOM... Even those numbers are a possibility based on some other movie series' performance. Especially as it seems to be 'in' to diss on Avatar 1 and 3D ticket prices... partially going down (if the cinema isn't a luxus version or....) But the opposite is also possible, especially if the advertising is great, the trailers show something fresh, it clicks with the audience... and in the end give the audience the feel like it will be a movie worth watching in the cinema, especially reaching people usually not going to the cinemas much, at all, not since years,... and can counteract the decreasing admissins per time-frame and.... I really do not understand why discussing this so ... enthusiastic before we have seen anything about the new movie(s), no one has even a starting point to calculate the impact the trailers will have... Till then the only possibility is to guess out of other movie series runs, assuming similar changes in quality, re-watch-temptingness (is that even a word?) and so on I say if all is done exceptional, the story is interesting for all genders and age groups, great visuals better enjoyed on the big screen, advertising is clicking... release date is set in a not killing each other way,... every movie has a chance, even the ones without the fandoms (but those way less than the others, condition: exceptional) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Just now, Cochofles said: The one thing about which we can all agree is that Avatar 2 will be a gigantic worldwide hit. How gigantic? No idea, but it will be another insanely successful Cameron joint, no doubt. Yeah, even that guy who said it could make as little as a 400m DOM, thats still 1739m WW with Avatar's 72% OS. Making it the 3rd highest grossing film of all time (assuming TFA stops making money today). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, terrestrial said: I say if all is done exceptional, the story is interesting for all genders and age groups, great visuals better enjoyed on the big screen, advertising is clicking... release date is set in a not killing each other way,... every movie has a chance, even the ones without the fandoms (but those way less than the others, condition: exceptional) I don't understand how people can bet against this. In what world will James Cameron fail and shit the bed, I can't see how it will happen. Oh and Star Wars wouldn't dare open on Avatar weekend, they care about money too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 TFA box office is really sinking today. Sinking Titanic. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) 4 minutes ago, tokila said: TFA box office is really sinking today. Sinking Titanic. It's almost like you've been waiting 19 years to say that :> Edited January 2, 2016 by IronJimbo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
