Weekend Actuals: The Force Awakens - 90.2M !!!

[Rthmessiah]

Top Engagements 1/1-3/1

all TFA except Arclight
1-AMC Metreon  SanFran
2-CPLX Scotiabank Chinook Calgary
3-AMC Empire 25 NYC
4-AMC Lincoln Square NYC
5-Regal Irvine Spectrum
6-Pac Arclight Hollywood  (Revenent)
7-Regal Hacienda Crossing Dublin CA
8-AMC Tyson Corner, Mclean
9-CPLX Scotiabank Vancouver
10-Regal Mira Mesa, San Diego
11-CS Warren 14, Moore OK
12-Regal Houston Stadium
13-CPLX Riverport Richmond BC
14-CPLX Scotiabank Toronto
15-CPLX Queensway ON

Edited January 4, 2016 by Rth

[Plain Old Tele]

20 minutes ago, Punishment said:

 

TTT Legs = $976m

ROTK Legs = $1.002b

FOTR Legs = $1.08b

 

Hmm, I actually have slightly different amounts, but I'm only tracking multipliers from 1/5 for each.

 

TTT Legs = 986m

ROTK Legs = 976m

FOTR Legs = 1191m

(TH1 Legs = 886m)

[terrestrial]

5 minutes ago, DarthOpeningGross said:

... it looks the Star Wars name alone might be good for an instant $500M gross in that December time frame, unless the reviews are abysmal.

I don't see Finding Dory going north of $400M (as great as Pixar films are, they is a still a certain segment of the audience that will see them as "kids' films"), nor do I see
Batman v. Superman being massive.  What other 2016 movies stands a chance?

every one of those, if made and advertised exceptional

I do not think the reviews have to be that bad, it can happen too with middle ground reviews, it depends a lot on how the audience will feel about the trailers... 

I think there will be a strong interest to observe the making, get a feel on how they approach it, how they 'leak' what kind of production details... and what the feeling will be abaut first impressions of the cast in their roles... plus a few story basics.

If it clicks, and the rest lives up to it... but if not even early on, the mood can change directions too, depends a lot on how strong the impressions about the new movie already are.

 

Too many variables to know already, especially to set minimum ammounts that high IMHO

 

[Chewy]

Think it ends up having worse legs than all three LotRs, it's burnt off an insane amount of demand and legs are generally stubbier these days anyway

 

The billion dream was fun while it lasted

[GiantCALBears]

Very cool that @Rth got his own color & title.  

[spizzer]

6 minutes ago, tokila said:

yes I know.

 

That is why I said it should. And it just shows how flawed going by tickets sold is. Does not accurately show one movies relative success to another.

 

Crappy iOS videogame sells 50 million at 99 cents a pop. AAA video game sells 10 million at 60 dollars a pop. Clearly one is better than the other, but it would like arguing the one did better because it sold more.

 

I agree somewhat with your stance, but your example isn't a perfect comparison.  Firstly, the difference in the # of IMAX screens and the popularity of IMAX in the mainstream is much different today than it was 5-10 years ago.  SM3 and TDK opened the door for IMAX as a format for mainstream films, with TDK's utilization of the actual IMAX format setting the precedent for future films to do so.  Furthermore, there's a vast difference in screen count; SM3 opened to 4.8M on 84 screens, TDK opened to 6.3M on 94 screens.  TFA did ~30M on 391 screens (the majority of which are digital, as opposed to SM3/TDK playing mostly in museum and novelty specialized locations with largely native 15/70 screens).  Without even accounting for inflation, those would adjust to record level openings today with 391 screens instead of 84/94.  

 

FWIW, similar inherent problem with your iOS vs. AAA console game example - its not just the price of the game, its the fact that the last couple of iPhone/iPad generations total well into the 100Ms for hardware sales, vs. the current generation of consoles, from late 2012 - 2015 haven't even combined for 70M units WW yet.  Actually I think this video game comparison is much harder to make than the film one.  There's a problem of install base in both cases (IMAX screens then vs. now; Apple hardware vs. console sales), but I think that difference is FAR more pronounced in the gaming example than in this example.  The key point is that IMO this problem clearly trumps the problem of price that you've brought up.  What's going to hold someone back from watching a film in IMAX more, the fact that IMAX tickets cost a few extra bucks or the fact that there are no IMAX screens in their vicinity?  I'd wager its the latter.  

 

I think it makes more a lot more sense to compare admissions and apply context like reasonably knowledgeable people, rather than double count expensive tickets.  Actually I think that latter scenario is completely illogical.

[druv10]

9 minutes ago, Rth said:

Top Engagements 1/1-3/1
1-AMC Metreon  SanFran
2-CPLX Scotiabank Chinook Calgary
3-AMC Empire 25 NYC
4-AMC Lincoln Square NYC
5-Regal Irvine Spectrum
6-Pac Arclight Hollywood
7-Regal Hacienda Crossing Dublin CA
8-AMC Tyson Corner, Mclean
9-CPLX Scotiabank Vancouver
10-Regal Mira Mesa, San Diego
11-CS Warren 14, Moore OK
12-Regal Houston Stadium
13-CPLX Riverport Richmond BC
14-CPLX Scotiabank Toronto
15-CPLX Queensway ON

Awesome. Good job Tele and WB. Hot pink looks good on Rth.

[terrestrial]

10 minutes ago, incognitoo said:

Not wanting to belittle one of Eastwood's finest, but I think I'll roll with @Daxtreme 's opinion here. ;o)

Did you mean that it doesn't belong on the 4th weekend chart?

Bcs I do not think it belongs there, I added a remark about that, I thought is would be clear....? To me it isn't a 4th weekend, see my comment if you can count it as that, due to the starting out as a small release

[terrestrial]

15 minutes ago, Rth said:

Top Engagements 1/1-3/1

 

Thank you, and cool color...

 

6 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Very cool that @Rth got his own color & title.  

 

Agree, it matches fantastically to the avater, love it

[incognitoo]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

 

have a lot of fun here (bin auch aus Deutschland)

Did you realise there is also an International area here within the forum?

Only in case you are interested  and didn't know: there is even a German / Austrian thread there

 

 

 

Vielen Dank auch *artigen Diener mach'*.

 

Yep, I am aware of the international and germaustrian threads. At the moment I'll roll with the Star Wars craze a bit (and will throw in an Avatar 2 comment once or twice in a while) but afterwards... well who knows. I know this forum (well, its origin that is) since the Titanc BO run but was never one to participate, since I am normally more comfortable with what this community calls lurking. Like a ghost, always hiding in the shadows. Ahem...sorry for that.

 

Titanic, Avatar and now The Force Awakens are one in a lifetime experiences (cinematic wise as BO-run wise) that are best to be experienced with (or through) other people who completely go bananas about these movies/runs/BO figures - and that's why I am here. Well, ok, honestly, if it weren't for a specific Newbie constantly aggravating others with his JimboJambo, I would not have registered, because then there would have been no need to reach for the emergency button (aka ignore function).

 

Where this will finally lead, is the great mystery beyond. I guess I'll find out eventually. :oD

[AndyLL]

8 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Very cool that @Rth got his own color & title.  

 

You can call it the @Noctisdetector.... 

[incognitoo]

42 minutes ago, tokila said:

yes I know.

 

That is why I said it should. And it just shows how flawed going by tickets sold is. Does not accurately show one movies relative success to another.

 

Crappy iOS videogame sells 50 million at 99 cents a pop. AAA video game sells 10 million at 60 dollars a pop. Clearly one is better than the other, but it would like arguing the one did better because it sold more.

 

Oh, I don't know... I've seen a good amount of crappy AAA videogames in the last few years. Were selling like hot-cakes though. But that's definately OT, so I'll keep my trap shut.

[grey ghost]

14 minutes ago, druv10 Maul said:

Awesome. Good job Tele and WB. Hot pink looks good on Rth.

 

It's purple. 

[tokila]

2 minutes ago, spizzer said:

 

I agree somewhat with your stance, but your example isn't a perfect comparison.  Firstly, the difference in the # of IMAX screens and the popularity of IMAX in the m

 

I think it makes more a lot more sense to compare admissions and apply context like reasonably knowledgeable people, rather than double count expensive tickets.  Actually I think that latter scenario is completely illogical.

The install base would be those who go to movies. The screens would be available retailers. With gaming now pretty much everything is available digital so essentially there is no constraint on availability. For movies some places dont have good access to a movie theater, the same areas also might be more limited with internet access.

 

I was just simply making a point using a fairly over the top example. Maybe it would have been better to say cheaper digital game on the PS4 sells 3 million at 9.99, and a full priced game sells 1.5 million on 5X the budget.

 

And with Spiderman example, again yes it did not have the advantage that TFA has in IMAX screens, but it had other advantage. Like at the time hi-speed internet was not wipespead, this lowered piracy and the option people had to stream digital, also people did not have affordable 60 inch LED tvs in their houses, so seeing it in normal 2D then was a massive gap between waiting to see it on DVD (or VHS for many people at that point still). I am not discrediting SM, I am just saying you can't take properly adjust the advantages each era has over each other. That is what you are doing when you discredit an IMAX ticket sale as a simple ticket sale.

[spazz91]

Just now, grey ghost said:

 

It's purple. 

 

I figured my computer screen was being defective.

[spazz91]

2 minutes ago, tokila said:

The install base would be those who go to movies. The screens would be available retailers. With gaming now pretty much everything is available digital so essentially there is no constraint on availability. For movies some places dont have good access to a movie theater, the same areas also might be more limited with internet access.

 

I was just simply making a point using a fairly over the top example. Maybe it would have been better to say cheaper digital game on the PS4 sells 3 million at 9.99, and a full priced game sells 1.5 million on 5X the budget.

 

And with Spiderman example, again yes it did not have the advantage that TFA has in IMAX screens, but it had other advantage. Like at the time hi-speed internet was not wipespead, this lowered piracy and the option people had to stream digital, also people did not have affordable 60 inch LED tvs in their houses, so seeing it in normal 2D then was a massive gap between waiting to see it on DVD (or VHS for many people at that point still). I am not discrediting SM, I am just saying you can't take properly adjust the advantages each era has over each other. That is what you are doing when you discredit an IMAX ticket sale as a simple ticket sale.

 

Some people just like to know the number of tickets sold. It's impossible to accommodate all environmental factors in the time period each movie is released in to get a perfect comparison, so we have various methods we can measure (e.g. total gross, est tickets, gross adj for inflation). None are perfect and each may tend to favor a different portion of history.

[tokila]

Just now, spazz91 said:

 

Some people just like to know the number of tickets sold. It's impossible to accommodate all environmental factors in the time period each movie is released in to get a perfect comparison, so we have various methods we can measure (e.g. total gross, est tickets, gross adj for inflation). None are perfect and each may tend to favor a different portion of history.

my rants are more directed at http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

 

than at people want to know total tickets sales.

[#ED]

31 minutes ago, Rth said:

Top Engagements 1/1-3/1

all TFA except Arclight
1-AMC Metreon  SanFran
2-CPLX Scotiabank Chinook Calgary
3-AMC Empire 25 NYC
4-AMC Lincoln Square NYC
5-Regal Irvine Spectrum
6-Pac Arclight Hollywood  (Revenent)
7-Regal Hacienda Crossing Dublin CA
8-AMC Tyson Corner, Mclean
9-CPLX Scotiabank Vancouver
10-Regal Mira Mesa, San Diego
11-CS Warren 14, Moore OK
12-Regal Houston Stadium
13-CPLX Riverport Richmond BC
14-CPLX Scotiabank Toronto
15-CPLX Queensway ON

 

That color. 

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

After two rather embarrassing weeks(I didn't even catch that H8teful 8 wasn't going wide last week), I should have done pretty well for myself in the Derby this week. TFA continues to follow a path very close to my original projection after OW. Actually, it surpassed my 17 day total by 22m.

 

 

 

[incognitoo]

23 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Did you mean that it doesn't belong on the 4th weekend chart?

Bcs I do not think it belongs there, I added a remark about that, I thought is would be clear....? To me it isn't a 4th weekend, see my comment if you can count it as that, due to the starting out as a small release

 

I see. I mistook your comment by putting something in that isn't there obviously. Sometimes it's better to read the lines only instead of trying to read between them. Mea culpa.