2016 100M Films - 30 down, 6 to go! (Passengers Played The Long Game)

[mahnamahna]

3 hours ago, Arlborn said:

I think Pets or Moana have a better shot. Suicide Squad definitely has a decent chance. Anything over $225 million DOM is a huge win, though

[zackzack]

No update?

Finding Dory in  $100M category

Captain America 3 in $400M category

[Blankments]

400M

1. Captain America: Civil War - June 18

300M

1. Deadpool - March 5
2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - April 13
3. Zootopia - April 15
4. The Jungle Book - May 14
5. Captain America: Civil War - May 16

200M

1. Deadpool - February 20
2. Zootopia – March 20
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 30
4. The Jungle Book - April 26
5. Captain America: Civil War - May 10

100M

1. Deadpool - February 14
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 - February 15
3. Zootopia – March 11
4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 26
5. The Jungle Book - April 17
6. Captain America: Civil War - May 7
7. X-Men: Apocalypse - June 3
8. The Angry Birds Movie - June 15
9. Captain America: Civil War - June 18

[Blankments]

19 hours ago, zackzack said:

No update?

Finding Dory in  $100M category

Captain America 3 in $400M category

I never update until actuals, I think I say this literally every 100M opener

[MovieMan89]

With a buttload of sequels that should have hit 100m this summer already missing the mark,  the record might not go down this year after all. Looking back through the thread almost all of us had Alice 2, TMNT 2, and ID:R as locks or near locks for 100, which I guess really goes to show movies are seldom "locked" for a certain amount. 

Edited June 20, 2016 by MovieMan89

[mahnamahna]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

With a buttload of sequels that should have hit 100m this summer already missing the mark,  the record might not go down this year after all. Looking back through the thread almost all of us had Alice 2, TMNT 2, and ID:R as locks or near locks for 100, which I guess really goes to show movies are seldom "locked" for a certain amount. 

 

The Conjuring 2 and Central Intelligence both need to pass the mark. Independence Day 2 crossing the mark would help out. 

 

12 for January-June 2016 would make it 24 for the remaining 6 months. 

 

The Secret Lives of Pets

Ghostbusters

Star Trek Beyond

Ice Age - Continental Drift 

Jason Bourne

Bad Moms

Suicide Squad

Pete's Dragon 

Sully

The Magnificent Seven 

Storks 

The Girl on the Train

The Birth of a Nation 

Doctor Strange

Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 

Moana 

La La Land 

Office Christmas Party 

Rogue One 

Passengers

Sing

Silence 

 

That would be 35... it also has 2-5 films becoming surprise hits. Hopefully, there's at least 30 $100 million+ grossers this year.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, mahnamahna said:

The Conjuring 2 and Central Intelligence both need to pass the mark. Independence Day 2 crossing the mark would help out. 

 

12 for January-June 2016 would make it 24 for the remaining 6 months. 

 

The Secret Lives of Pets

Ghostbusters

Star Trek Beyond

Ice Age - Continental Drift 

Jason Bourne

Bad Moms

Suicide Squad

Pete's Dragon 

Sully

The Magnificent Seven 

Storks 

The Girl on the Train

The Birth of a Nation 

Doctor Strange

Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 

Moana 

La La Land 

Office Christmas Party 

Rogue One 

Passengers

Sing

Silence 

 

That would be 35... it also has 2-5 films becoming surprise hits. Hopefully, there's at least 30 $100 million+ grossers this year.

All those in bold range from only slightly likely to massive long shots. 

[WrathOfHan]

The 9 we have

10. The Conjuring (the fudge will be real)

11. Independence Day (barely)

12. Secret Life of Pets

13. Ghostbusters

14. Star Trek

15. Ice Age

16. Jason Bourne

17. Suicide Squad

18. Sausage Party

19. Pete's Dragon

20. Magnificent Seven

21. Storks

22. Deepwater Horizon

23. The Accountant

24. Doctor Strange

25. Billy Lynn

26. Fantastic Beasts

27. Moana

28. Rogue One

29. La La Land

30. Passengers

31. Sing

32. Silence

33. Live By Night (providing WB does a NY/LA release) 

Edited June 20, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[MovieMan89]

Storks looks on the level of The Nut Job or worse. You guys really think it's cracking 100? Angry Birds barely did it and I'd say had a lot more going for it.  

[WrathOfHan]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

All those in bold range from only slightly likely to massive long shots. 

Ice Age needs to drop 37% from the last one to miss 100M. I know the franchise is losing a lot of steam domestically but I can't see it missing right now.

Bad Moms I agree with you.

Sully was one I had doing 100M for a while but now I'm going with BOS numbers.

Storks will cross 100M with ease, October has nothing for kids.

Birth of a Nation is going to have a very aggressive push by Fox. I don't think it hits 100M but it'll get close.

Billy Lynn isn't locked but the new technology helps plus it's an appealing subject for many.

La La Land will be a giant crowdpleaser. If Sisters could hit 87M this will hit 100M.

Office Christmas Party I agree with you.

Silence will cross it IMO because out of Scorsese's last 5 movies only Hugo missed.

[MovieMan89]

Ice Age is in for an epic tumble DOM. Ice Age 4 got away with not crashing hard because all it had to deal with that summer was Brave and Madagascar 3. Dory and Pets' combined domination of the market will be massive when IA5 releases, not to mention Angry Birds, Alice, BFG, and TMNT won't exactly have added up to chump change either. 100 is the ceiling for IA5 at this point, and that would only be if it gets WOM on the level of the first or third. 

 

Storks is September, not terribly long after this summer's kid onslaught. Especially since I see Pete's Dragon and Kubo both being mini August breakouts. I'd also put more stock in Peregrine being a Goosebumps level hit now that it  moved to September. Which means Storks won't be void of competition, doesn't have to hit 100 by defualt. 

 

The Oscar contenders all depend on if they deliver or not. This time last year we were all saying Joy was locked for 100. 

Edited June 20, 2016 by MovieMan89

[Eric Duncan]

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Storks looks on the level of The Nut Job or worse. You guys really think it's cracking 100? Angry Birds barely did it and I'd say had a lot more going for it.  

The difference I feel is release date. Angry Birds was surrounded by Jungle Book, Alice, TMNT, and Dory. For Storks, the last major kids movie will be Pete's Dragon, which likely won't be a huge moneymaker, and an entire month all to itself, outside of Miss Peregrine and Middle School, and neither seem like they'll cross $100M. Add in the studio's connection to Lego Movie, the next animated movie being in week 7, and the past success of other CG animated films in the same timeslot, and you've got something that seems destined for at least $100M.

[MovieMan89]

Unless marketing is misleading though, I can't see Storks getting remotely good WOM. Peregrine on the other hand definitely has the possibility for good WOM. Also I think Kubo has a solid chance to beat Coraline and become Laika's highest grosser. It looks far more CG than the typical stop motion film, which will inherently give it more appeal. 

[A District 3 Engineer]

1 hour ago, Jeff Goldblank said:

400M

1. Captain America: Civil War - June 18

300M

1. Deadpool - March 5
2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - April 13
3. Zootopia - April 15
4. The Jungle Book - May 14
5. Captain America: Civil War - May 16

200M

1. Deadpool - February 20
2. Zootopia – March 20
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 30
4. The Jungle Book - April 26
5. Captain America: Civil War - May 10

100M

1. Deadpool - February 14
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 - February 15
3. Zootopia – March 11
4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 26
5. The Jungle Book - April 17
6. Captain America: Civil War - May 7
7. X-Men: Apocalypse - June 3
8. The Angry Birds Movie - June 15
9. Captain America: Civil War Finding Dory - June 18

 

Fixed.

[WrathOfHan]

I doubt Kubo goes above or below Laika's typical range.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I doubt Kubo goes above or below Laika's typical range.

I think Boxtrolls and ParaNorman were rather unappealing sells for kids, so it's impressive they even did what they did. Kubo looks like a fun adventure with gorgeous and very modern looking animation. I think the gross ends up much more on Coraline's level, especially with strong reviews. But 100 would still be a huge long shot for it, not predicting that. 

[CJohn]

The next ones absolutely 100% surefire not miss movies doing it should be Pets, Bourne and Suicide Squad. I guess 1-2 movies from September-October will do it as well (Storks and Magnificent Seven). November will give us Doctor Strange, Moana and Fantastic Beasts as surefire totally doing it with absolutely 100% no doubts and December only has Rogue One. 

 

So we have 7 more for sure. Storks, Pete's Dragon, Magnificent Seven and Passengers seem to be the other contenders as well. 

[narniadis]

10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Unless marketing is misleading though, I can't see Storks getting remotely good WOM. Peregrine on the other hand definitely has the possibility for good WOM. Also I think Kubo has a solid chance to beat Coraline and become Laika's highest grosser. It looks far more CG than the typical stop motion film, which will inherently give it more appeal. 

 

Since when has good word of mouth stopped films from being hits when there is nothing else in the marketplace? For what it's worth my audience at Dory was in stitches over the storks trailer so obviously its doing something.

 

Also I wouldn't be as concerned about Ice Age - Alvin would be a good comparison for it IF #4 had plummeted from part 3 but the drop was respectable and in a normal range unlike Alvin 3 from 2 (and then 4 from 3.) Considering it's the last major animated film of the summer (and your premise is pinned on Pete breaking out as well as the Dory/Pets combo) I can see it doing 40/120 I mean even the other films (besides 2) managed good-great legs for their years.

 

Still can't believe that May only netted us 3 total 100m films.... and June is looking just as dire....

[Eric Duncan]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Unless marketing is misleading though, I can't see Storks getting remotely good WOM. Peregrine on the other hand definitely has the possibility for good WOM. Also I think Kubo has a solid chance to beat Coraline and become Laika's highest grosser. It looks far more CG than the typical stop motion film, which will inherently give it more appeal. 

Eh, I think Storks looks good. In Stoller I trust. Besides, I felt the Hotel Translyvania movies had much weaker marketing, and if they're able to make more than $150M, I think Storks can do the same thing if it was able to impress me. Of course, this is all my subjective opinions, and doesn't represent the GA, so let's see what happens.

 

I'm actually still unsure about Peregrine though. I see it somewhere in the $25M range, but I don't really know if it'll be too weird or freaky for the GA. Of course, let's see what happens.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

Since when has good word of mouth stopped films from being hits when there is nothing else in the marketplace? For what it's worth my audience at Dory was in stitches over the storks trailer so obviously its doing something.

 

Also I wouldn't be as concerned about Ice Age - Alvin would be a good comparison for it IF #4 had plummeted from part 3 but the drop was respectable and in a normal range unlike Alvin 3 from 2 (and then 4 from 3.) Considering it's the last major animated film of the summer (and your premise is pinned on Pete breaking out as well as the Dory/Pets combo) I can see it doing 40/120 I mean even the other films (besides 2) managed good-great legs for their years.

 

Still can't believe that May only netted us 3 total 100m films.... and June is looking just as dire....

May-July will see kid focused movies grossing upwards of $1b combined DOM. I fail to see where there is room for another 100+ grosser in that market until mid August at the earliest, unless we were talking about a WDAS, Pixar, or Illumination release.