8M TFA Rth Monday number!!! SW7 has surpassed TA1 & F7 for 4th alltime WW!!!

[Wonder Midget]

I know the purpose of this forum is to extrapolate and examine every nuance of the numbers, but what matters for most people is, that at the end of the day, TFA will be the biggest domestic hit of all time, and STAR WARS will once again be at the top of the heap. 

[peludo]

7 minutes ago, langer said:

 

But are we expecting a similar Oscar boost like ROTK had?  TFA won't have 10+ noms and multiple wins.  I'm just saying that at some point in Feb, TFA will "drop" from its 3.2X-3.5X ratio of ROTK on daily gross comparisons. 

If TFA follows the same pattern than ROTK from now until ROTK got the nominations (Tuesday 27th, 2003) we have this (let's remember that 3rd weekend of TFA has been $90m and ROTK was $28m, so 3.2 factor):

 

4-7 January: 24.64m ==> Already obsolete since TFA could reach 28-30 along this week taking into account Monday figure.

4th weekend: 45.4m

11-14 January: 13.66m

5th weekend (MLK 4-day): 39.8m

19-21 January: 6.37m

6th weekend: 21.71m

 

Adding up those amounts to the current $742m we obtain $893.58m. So it would need another $107m from its 6th weekend, so a 5.9 multiplier from its 6th weekend to reach the billion.

 

Multipliers since 6th weekend: Jurassic World (4.72), The Avengers (4.72), The Dark Knight (5.4), The Dark Knight Rises (4.71).

 

Ok, it would need better legs than "usual" megablockbusters but with some help from awards session or some Disney boost in order to reach the milestone, I think it is reachable. And all of this asuming it follows the ROTK pre-nominations pattern. For the moment, TFA has beaten that pattern on first Monday. Maybe by the end of 6th weekend it is already well over $900m and "just" needs JW, TA or TDKR legs.

[IronJimbo]

For those having problems with excel you can try the Subtitute function, SUBSTITUTE( text , character to change , what character to change too)

 

In cell A1 I have "$2,787,965,087.99" as TEXT and want to change it too "$2.787.965.087,99".

 

First we can change the full stop to a placeholder character (a-z, #, ?, ', : ) anything will do.

String1 = SUBSTITUTE(A1 , "." , "?")

$2,787,965,087?99

 

Now we change commas to fullstops,

String2= SUBSTITUTE( String1 , "," , ".")

$2.787.965.087?99

 

finally replace the placeholder ('?' in this case) with a fullstop.

String 3=SUBSTITUTE(String 2, "?" , "," )

$2.787.965.087,99

 

You can slam it all together into one formula.

=SUBSTITUTE(SUBSTITUTE(SUBSTITUTE(A1,".","?"),",","."),"?",",")

 

 

 

[upprdeck]

31 minutes ago, Darth Rallax said:

Let's say this does get some Oscar noms, at that point, how many people have not seen this yet?  Would it really help it that much?  I guess it would be one more interesting thing to find out.

Of the people I know who want to see the movie, its about 50/50 who have. I know many who dont want to deal with crowds.. Several cant deal with 3d and made multiple attempts to see it in 2d but it was sold out since so few shows are in 2d.  Many are waiting until the weekend to try and go again.

[MovieMan89]

Decent hold, but 9m or something would have been nice to give it still a chance to beat Avatar's 4th weekend. That is looking pretty unlikely now. 

[terrestrial]

3 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Well maybe it's your misunderstanding of English here, but there have been a number of other posts that have been a bit harsh. Are you from east germany?

Nope, west ('deepest' = non-city... Bavaria)

I was the last few days / ~ lasr week rather annoyed, someone here managed to get me a bit heated (as in: the most someone managed in 15y of using the Internet in private use), he is the first I put on ignore here, now I am back to pure enjoyment of BO datas. Maybe that bleeded out to other posts?

If yes, that wasn't my intention, quite the opposite, I aim to be of use / helpful.

 

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Decent hold, but 9m or something would have been nice to give it still a chance to beat Avatar's 4th weekend. That is looking pretty unlikely now. 

 

There was never a chance it would have dropped under 60%.

[MovieMan89]

15 minutes ago, peludo said:

If TFA follows the same pattern than ROTK from now until ROTK got the nominations (Tuesday 27th, 2003) we have this (let's remember that 3rd weekend of TFA has been $90m and ROTK was $28m, so 3.2 factor):

 

4-7 January: 24.64m ==> Already obsolete since TFA could reach 28-30 along this week taking into account Monday figure.

4th weekend: 45.4m

11-14 January: 13.66m

5th weekend (MLK 4-day): 39.8m

19-21 January: 6.37m

6th weekend: 21.71m

 

Adding up those amounts to the current $742m we obtain $893.58m. So it would need another $107m from its 6th weekend, so a 5.9 multiplier from its 6th weekend to reach the billion.

 

Multipliers since 6th weekend: Jurassic World (4.72), The Avengers (4.72), The Dark Knight (5.4), The Dark Knight Rises (4.71).

 

Ok, it would need better legs than "usual" megablockbusters but with some help from awards session or some Disney boost in order to reach the milestone, I think it is reachable. And all of this asuming it follows the ROTK pre-nominations pattern. For the moment, TFA has beaten that pattern on first Monday. Maybe by the end of 6th weekend it is already well over $900m and "just" needs JW, TA or TDKR legs.

I think if it played like that through the 6th weekend then it would be on track to stop around 970 or so. Fortunately, I think all of those drops will be slightly better which could make all the difference. If it does get that close hopefully Disney finds some event way of re-releasing it that could get another 20-30m. My suggestion would be re-release in IMAX for a limited engagement on May 4th (SW day) and 5th and advertise the Rogue One trailer as being exclusive to the screenings. Give it its own marketing campaign and make it seem like a big deal and the last chance to see the movie on big screens. If they played their cards right I could see there being sellouts all over on the 4th. 

Edited January 5, 2016 by MovieMan89

[baumer]

If they added footage to it, released it in about 3 months from now, I think it could add another 20 million.

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

 

There was never a chance it would have dropped under 60%.

It dropped 63% so I'm not sure how you can say 58% would have been impossible? There was definitely a chance, however small. 

[terrestrial]

16 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I highly doubt the film made $30m overseas yesterday.....

"even better overseas" just because it has a higher total overseas than domestically, too - every blockbuster has a higher overseas total, and 99% have a better ratio than TFA does at the moment. If anything it's doing much worse overseas in general compared to its domestic success. A 49/51 ratio for a 2015 blockbuster is obviously nothing to brag about, even without China.

1, he wrote: as of today = not yesterday. Here it is already afternoon, soon evening, Asia, Australia... late in the night, or already tomorrow for you = he might have access to actual OS numbers

2. = not every blockbuster, the most of those are part 2 , 3 or... I think you underestimate maybe the local movies,... it gets more and more difficult to get new to them material ontroduced, if so many local movies are there to pick too. Example top 15 SK = only 2 non-Asian movies on that list

plus excajnge rates vary,.... in local currency the movie breaks far more records as you seem to think

3. It depends a lot also on the material, there are also US blockbusters that still make ~ 75% in the US too

 

11 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

How is it a superhero movie?

Hidden Content

? It's part of the setting, it's not a super power in the Star Wars universe any more than being able to do a backflip is in ours. That guy seems intent on misinterperting the movie.

 

I do not think he means it is a super hero movie, but her being like a super hero, and as such a potential character for action toys. He writes since quite some time about missing merchandise for female super hero characters, as it seems to me it is a rather near to his heart theme.

Maybe he uses the term like we (at least here we do that) sometime use a companies name for a certain product, even if the product has other producing companies too?

 

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya

MON drop after NewYears wknd much bigger for #StarWarsTheForceAwakens than Avatar. -63% to about $8M. $750M cume.

[lilmac]

7 hours ago, tokila said:

My concern is we have not seen if this is the leveling off point. We had a pretty bad Sunday hold followed by a very mediocre Monday. I think 1 billion is dead. An 8 mill hold puts us on course for a 38-40 mil weekend or a 55-58% drop. 

 

Also note, this is the Day that TFA and Avatar are equal. From here on out Avatar will be beating TFA each and everyday until the end of the run. 

 

TFA needs to level off like tomorrow to keep 1 bil a possibility. We see another 15%-20% drop tomorrow 1 bil is done and we need to start calculating if it can even reach 950mil (in a good scenario). 

 

I think we'll see a $950m first run which puts it in the top 10 all time. 

 

Can it beat Exorcist? We shall see.

[GOATPeterJackson]

A re-release with or just adding a first look at Rogue One after the credits could be very successful.

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, Wonder Midget said:

I know the purpose of this forum is to extrapolate and examine every nuance of the numbers, but what matters for most people is, that at the end of the day, TFA will be the biggest domestic hit of all time, and STAR WARS will once again be at the top of the heap. 

 

I've got a reply for you in here, posted 5 mins ago.

 

 

[baumer]

All this adjusted talk is silly.  The eras are completely different.  Exorcist, Jaws, even Titanic didn't have to deal with piracy and other forms of revenue stunting.  It's nice to compare  but it's also completely irrelevant.

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

If they added footage to it, released it in about 3 months from now, I think it could add another 20 million.

May 4th is just too perfect to not do something with. SW day has been big in the past, but after TFA it is going to be absolutely massive this year.I think going a heavily marketed limited engagement route that coordinates with SW day is the best way to get people back. They create a frenzied demand to see it one last time on the big screen and to celebrate SW day and again, I can see tons of sellouts for that day. TLK 3D made 21m in its first two days and was also marketed as a limited engagement originally. Add the exclusive first trailer for Rogue One and don't put it on the internet for a week or so and it could really lock another 20m in two days. If it was still a bit shy then they just extend it to the weekend and fudge some of Civil War's OW into TFA's gross. 

 

An extended edition with new footage would be nice, but I don't see that happening. 

[lilmac]

26 minutes ago, peludo said:

If TFA follows the same pattern than ROTK from now until ROTK got the nominations (Tuesday 27th, 2003) we have this (let's remember that 3rd weekend of TFA has been $90m and ROTK was $28m, so 3.2 factor):

 

4-7 January: 24.64m ==> Already obsolete since TFA could reach 28-30 along this week taking into account Monday figure.

4th weekend: 45.4m

11-14 January: 13.66m

5th weekend (MLK 4-day): 39.8m

19-21 January: 6.37m

6th weekend: 21.71m

 

Adding up those amounts to the current $742m we obtain $893.58m. So it would need another $107m from its 6th weekend, so a 5.9 multiplier from its 6th weekend to reach the billion.

 

Multipliers since 6th weekend: Jurassic World (4.72), The Avengers (4.72), The Dark Knight (5.4), The Dark Knight Rises (4.71).

 

Ok, it would need better legs than "usual" megablockbusters but with some help from awards session or some Disney boost in order to reach the milestone, I think it is reachable. And all of this asuming it follows the ROTK pre-nominations pattern. For the moment, TFA has beaten that pattern on first Monday. Maybe by the end of 6th weekend it is already well over $900m and "just" needs JW, TA or TDKR legs.

 

I think fans will try to get it there if Disney is blatant in their marketing and generates awareness.  "Feel the Force! Be Part of the Movement. Path to $1 Billion. Go See it Again!"

[The Futurist]

Now The Force Awakens' box office run will only bring disappointment, betrayal, boredom & sadness.

 

Force Awakens Opening Week End, those were the days ...

[terrestrial]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya

Despite #StarWarsTheForceAwakens grossing twice as much as #Avatar in 1st 17 days, both are now even at $8M on MON, day 18.

[ecstasy]

2 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Now The Force Awakens' box office run will only bring disappointment, betrayal, boredom & sadness.

 

Force Awakens Opening Week End, those were the days ...

LOL You been pushing this agenda for a minute. Nobody biting?