Tuesday : TFA $7,967,428 #ED was Asleep at the Wheel(He's sicky-poo)

[TServo2049]

They will all decrease. Nowhere to go but down.

 

And I already said EpVIII would decrease months before TFA released. Both previous trilogies followed the same pattern:

 

1st episode is the peak

2nd episode drops

3rd episode increases from 2nd but still below 1st

Edited January 6, 2016 by TServo2049

[Elessar]

17 minutes ago, bladels said:

Oh, you mean 3D, right?

3D is the worst thing that has ever happened to cinema. 3D reduces picture quality slightly or drastically (depends on kind of 3D) and increases ticket price, not to mention some crappy 3D causes headache, nausea and 3D glass is a way to spread bacteria.

Since Avatar opened, I have to fight for 2D ticket if I want to see a movie on its OW.

 

Dude, you don't know what you are talking about.

[MovieMan89]

VII's cliffhanger is a huge advantage for VIII, at least for OW. I wouldn't be surprised if Disney demanded a cliffhanger all along considering the nature of second films in SW trilogies to drop hard. ANH was totally self contained, and even TPM had a pretty contained ending (plus the bad will was definitely present by the time AOTC debuted). So the cliffhanger was a brilliant way to do all they can to prevent such a harsh drop this time. I could see OW going as high as 225. From there, who knows at this point. If TFA grosses around 1b DOM and VIII is well liked I think the range is 700-800 for it (also given a Holiday release again). Ending on such a major cliffhanger is going to soften the drop at least a little.  

[lilmac]

9 hours ago, LinksterAC said:

Good hold.  Makes a 45+ weekend seem very likely. 

 

Of course. $48-$50m

[JohnnyGossamer]

I'm shocked at anyone who believes Episode VIII will come remotely close to Episode VII DOM. Unless there's unprecedented inflation, that's not happening. Now, with IX being the final installment of new trilogy, I guess anything's possible. As in, it will come close but fail to match it.

[bladels]

2 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Apparently.

Of course!

[lilmac]

6 hours ago, tokila said:

well, I guess you never know for sure, I mean when SW broke the record in 77 I am sure people thought that would stand for a very very long time. But the late 70s brought very high inflation in 5-6 year ET took it out.

 

So lets assume stable inflation. Avatar broke Titanic by 160 million, 900 million would be a slightly less number, however if not for Star Wars Avatar's record would have stood for probably at least 5-6 years. The Avengers which wa the culmination of a half a decade of highly popular movies came 140 million short. JW which was a nostalgic beast off one of the most popular movies ever still came 110 million short. I cant think of any announced movie over next few years that could have beaten Avatar (you never know I guess). So I think that TFA beat Avatar well before "inflation caught up with it" like Avatar did to Titanic. 

 

If you think about it, it was 2012 before a non-Cameron film finally made over 600 mil. Another thing that makes me think that movies are not ready to regularly even target 600m (unless they are a very special case like TA and JW) is because we still only have one film in the 500 range. Once 500 becomes a multiple times a year deal we will see 1 or 2 times a year a 600mil. We only have 11 films in the 400 mil range that did not take multiple releases to get there. So 400 is still a super hard barrier, let alone 500. 600 still takes a perfect storm type deal (Cameron and SW operate by a different set of rules)

 

To me 900 million should hold for over 10 years. 

1 billion could last for 15. 

 

All this assuming we maintain the low inflation we have seen the past decade+. (not the 10% per year crap of the late 70s). 

 

Onlything I wont rule out is James Cameron. Even though I think he will see some sequel decline, I never doubt the man to turn expectations on their heads. If Avatar 2 does not do it. Nothing will for at least 10 years. And that is just simply for 900 million. Or ET 2 (dejavu)

 

 

Let's look out over the next 10 years. At what we know. The upcoming Star Wars movies, Marvel movies, Avatar sequels, Justice League Films...there is nothing announced which will come close. Not even Episode VIII IMO. It will have to be an unannounced film and/or something that just takes us by surprise.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I'm shocked at anyone who believes Episode VIII will come remotely close to Episode VII DOM. Unless there's unprecedented inflation, that's not happening. Now, with IX being the final installment of new trilogy, I guess anything's possible. As in, it will come close but fail to match it.

Even 800m still isn't really "coming close" to 1b+. VIII can definitely pull Avatar numbers with another December release and good reception. 

[The Panda]

If episode VIII opens in the summer, it could match or beat VII's opening weekend only to have much worse legs due to being a summer release.

 

It'll decrease DOM, but OW might not

[MovieMan89]

1b to 800m is the same as Catching Fire to Mockingjay 1. VIII can do that. 

[lilmac]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I'm shocked at anyone who believes Episode VIII will come remotely close to Episode VII DOM. Unless there's unprecedented inflation, that's not happening. Now, with IX being the final installment of new trilogy, I guess anything's possible. As in, it will come close but fail to match it.

 

I think TFA could be in some ways like Avatar in the sense that we don't believe the sequel will be helped by the first movie. TFA is being well-received by the masses and non-SW fans now but will the brand stick for Episode VIII?  It's important that Episode VIII be a good movie if it wants to get above $700m. TPM got there (in attendance) because the fog hadn't lifted and it was a new SW. By the time, AOTC came around....    Episode VIII will have more goodwill built in but that capital will evaporate if it isn't good.  

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

 

I've already given my reasons why VIII will open just as high as VII without sounding like a broken record and it's reasonable...

I think it could have a higher OW DOM/WW. That's it though.

[JohnnyGossamer]

28 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Even 800m still isn't really "coming close" to 1b+. VIII can definitely pull Avatar numbers with another December release and good reception. 

That's exactly my thinking. VII will finish its run just north/south of $1B DOM. I still believe VIII and IX will pull gargantuan numbers, I just don't expect either to finish within $150M - $200M or VII DOM.

Edited January 6, 2016 by JohnnyGossamer

[a2k]

The reception and the performance of the spin-offs will have some effect on the bo of SW 8 and 9.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

The reception and the performance of the spin-offs will have some effect on the bo of SW 8 and 9.

I don't honestly don't think they'll have much impact at all. They'll be marketed as almost a different entity. Everyone knows the true saga lies in hands of Rey and Co. now.

[The Stingray]

We've already been through this with Age of Ultron.

 

I can see VIII doing 650-700m.

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by The Stingray

[JohnnyGossamer]

15 minutes ago, The Stingray said:

We've already been through this with Age of Ultron.

 

I can see VIII doing 650-700m.

 

There would be some very, very bizarre backlash here if it came up that short of VII. It'll gross more than that. At least, I hope so... That box office run DOM would be labeled a bore by so, so many given the explosion of VII. Not unlike, but on a much larger scale of course, the runs of Potter 2, Potter 3, etc.

[a2k]

20 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I don't honestly don't think they'll have much impact at all. They'll be marketed as almost a different entity. Everyone knows the true saga lies in hands of Rey and Co. now.

 

The spin-offs provide an opportunity to visit the SW universe and enjoy those elements that are common with the main saga (some visuals, weapons, landscapes, music, etc). So they do effect the repeat business of the main movies I think. (But of course, the money the spin-offs make is much larger than the portion of repeat business of the main movies that gets effected. So they are a big plus in the end.)

Edited January 6, 2016 by a2knet

[JonathanLB]

I'm a huge Star Wars fan, but I didn't realize people could be so blinded by their bias for a franchise to predict insane things. I wish that Episode VIII could get to $1.3B domestic, sure, it would be great. It's just not AT ALL realistic. Nor is Avatar 2 hitting anywhere near Avatar. It's just a different time. 

 

It's important not to forget that the average person saw TFA because it was the first new SW in a while, with the new cast, etc. They aren't ALL going to see VIII in the same way. Same with Avatar 2. The first was a revolutionary film for cinema technology. Now, 3D is commonplace and it seems I'm one of the few who enjoys it. Most people don't.

[Lordmandeep]

I have a feeling part 8 will be around 700 million. 

 

Feel that like the old films more casual audiences will catch the films on home video or TV. 

 

 

Like even though Jedi grossed far less then ANH I think in terms of people who seen both films is not radically different over time.

 

I actually would argue that jedi was the most watchable of the films to more modern audiences.