Tuesday : TFA $7,967,428 #ED was Asleep at the Wheel(He's sicky-poo)

[Last Man Standing]

19 minutes ago, The Stingray said:

We've already been through this with Age of Ultron.

 

WRT the AoU and TPM comparisons, I think the case here is different. Not only are people more invested in the characters and want to watch them grow(people watching TPM cared about Vader, but most didn't get attached to his depiction in the movie), but it basically ended in a cliffhanger, and the narrative continues naturally from what it set up, unlike TPM and The Avengers which didn't end in a way that made you feel you had to watch where they develop the plot in the sequels. It will still drop ofc, but I see something more like 800 with a winter release date.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

I'm think 600s in possible for VIII, albeit on the lower end. If I had to guess now, low to mid 700s would be the best bet. I have no idea on the spinoffs however. As for the spinoffs, I think many are over-predicting Rogue One, but I guess we really don't know the power of Star Wars outside of the main saga. I think 300m DOM would be a great total personally.

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I'm a huge Star Wars fan, but I didn't realize people could be so blinded by their bias for a franchise to predict insane things. I wish that Episode VIII could get to $1.3B domestic, sure, it would be great. It's just not AT ALL realistic. Nor is Avatar 2 hitting anywhere near Avatar. It's just a different time. 

 

It's important not to forget that the average person saw TFA because it was the first new SW in a while, with the new cast, etc. They aren't ALL going to see VIII in the same way. Same with Avatar 2. The first was a revolutionary film for cinema technology. Now, 3D is commonplace and it seems I'm one of the few who enjoys it. Most people don't.

 

Curiosity drives a lot of non-fans. Like with Harry Potter. The first one remained the biggest in admissions. It only got out-grossed by HP8 after 3D and 10 years of inflation. SW7 had tremendous curiosity. Tough to see it get matched by 8 and 9.

Edited January 6, 2016 by a2knet

[TriggerMike]

Still feel that Episode 8 can get 800M domestic

[WrathOfHan]

Like I've been saying, 8 will mirror TFA's first three weeks but drop hard once Cars and Kingsman are out.

[Razoric]

19 minutes ago, TriggerMike said:

Still feel that Episode 8 can get 800M domestic

 

Yeah I think it's possible but I'm guessing Episode 8 is going to be far more front loaded than this one is.  Episode 7 almost seems like a cultural phenomenon that everyone wants to get in on.  I don't see that happening again with 8.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Like I've been saying, 8 will mirror TFA's first three weeks but drop hard once Cars and Kingsman are out.

I think that will be hard to do. Weekdays were incredible for TFA, and it had pretty minimal drops on the weekends. Most of that was due to the holidays. I think it can certainly open bigger than TFA if it keeps the Memorial Day release date, but I don't see it closely following TFA's gross for 3 weeks.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Jayhawk the Hutt said:

I think that will be hard to do. Weekdays were incredible for TFA, and it had pretty minimal drops on the weekends. Most of that was due to the holidays. I think it can certainly open bigger than TFA if it keeps the Memorial Day release date, but I don't see it closely following TFA's gross for 3 weeks.

If Star Wars can destroy the onslaught of Christmas movies, it can destroy World War Z and Barbie.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

If Star Wars can destroy the onslaught of Christmas movies, it can destroy World War Z and Barbie.

Certainly. I'm not talking about the competition though. I just don't expect the weekday holds to be near as strong TFA's 1st week, and it is extremely likely VIII will not be as strong as TFA's 2nd week. But who knows at this point.

[LinksterAC]

31 minutes ago, TriggerMike said:

Still feel that Episode 8 can get 800M domestic

 

Maybe it can, but the best historical comparisons suggest otherwise.  AOTC earned about 72% of TPM's first run, but also benefited from an extra year or so of ticket price inflation.  Maybe the inflation loss is offset by the better reception that TFA has received?

 

Unless TFA is building a new fan base (which may be possible with the Katniss appeal of a female lead), I think VIII land in the 700 - 750 range.

 

 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

I guess there is the advantage of summer '17 looking a bit on the pathetic side at the moment. You've got GOTG2, DM3, and Apes 3 and not much else for real heavy hitters (maybe Wonder Woman and the new Spidey). December '17 is pretty weak atm as well though. So either spot is good competition wise. Still say they need to go with a December release now. 

Edited January 6, 2016 by MovieMan89

[Deep Wang]

 

2 hours ago, dignam said:

And i think people are delusional when they think avatar 2 will fail. Are you really willing to underestimate cameron? If we learned one thing in the past, never ever underestimate cameron. People predicted a total ww around 300-400mio$ for avatar. And this was not a an execption, their were a lot of prediction like that.

 

So in your opinion, not making as much as Avatar is failing?  Because that's all most of us are talking about.  

 

People keep saying not to underestimate him, but the fact of the matter is, he can't always put out bangers.  If he had made something in between Titanic and Avatar that was only a modest hit,  would you still feel this way? 

[WrathOfHan]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I guess there is the advantage of summer '17 looking a bit on the pathetic side at the moment. You've got GOTG2, DM3, and Apes 3 and not much else for real heavy hitters (maybe Wonder Woman and the new Spidey). December '17 is pretty weak atm as well though. So either spot is good competition wise. Still say they need to go with a December release now. 

DUNKIRK though.

[AndyLL]

Moderation:

Enough.

 

This is not the Avatar thread and this is not the VIII thread.

 

This is the 'Daily' numbers thread

[AndyLL]

And since we are (only) talking about current numbers here...

 

This 1st Box Office Theory Derby Tournament is starting this week... January 8th.

 

You do not have to do anything special.... just make your Derby picks as normal.

 

More Information:  

 

Derby Tournaments Master Thread

Derby Predictions

[Ozymandias]

today is the big day folks, SW7 becoming #1 as we speak

 

[TriggerMike]

46 minutes ago, Razoric said:

 

Yeah I think it's possible but I'm guessing Episode 8 is going to be far more front loaded than this one is.  Episode 7 almost seems like a cultural phenomenon that everyone wants to get in on.  I don't see that happening again with 8.

No matter where Disney releases Episode 8 I feel it can get a 250M Opening Weekend. I feel it can have a little over a 3x multiplier and get 800M. Personally.

[WrathOfHan]

9 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

And since we are (only) talking about current numbers here...

 

This 1st Box Office Theory Derby Tournament is starting this week... January 8th.

 

You do not have to do anything special.... just make your Derby picks as normal.

 

More Information:  

 

Derby Tournaments Master Thread

Derby Predictions

I thought this was the Daily thread  

[#ED]

8M should be just enough to keep this above 6M tomorrow.

 

Also, looks like China pre-sales are below T5. Our forum believes it's gonna open to about 25-35M OW which is less than recent blockbusters. Hopefully it's a walk up movie in China but it looks like it will end up on the lower end of our China predictions.

[RichWS]

11 hours ago, Baumer said:

Because it missed Avatar's mark today, I will go for the 7th time tomorrow and see it in IMAX.  I will pay the $18.00 for it.  At last we will reveal ourselves to Avatar.  At last we will have our revenge.

 

I hope you say all of this to the person tearing your ticket.