Joel M Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 17 hours ago, yjs said: just realized that no Best Picture winner in the last 10 years had not been screened any time later than early October. Is this a sign that La La Land is in a good place? You can make that 11 years since Crash also got released before mid-October. It's a by product of the Oscar ceremony moving from late March to late February that happened in 2003. The first two winners since the date switch were both December movies (ROTK, Million Dollar Baby) but after that all the winners have opened or at least made the festival rounds by mid-October. Billy Lynn opens Oct. 14 at NYFF so it'll also have been seen by mid-October, barely but still. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yjs Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 1 hour ago, Joel M said: You can make that 11 years since Crash also got released before mid-October. It's a by product of the Oscar ceremony moving from late March to late February that happened in 2003. Billy Lynn opens Oct. 14 at NYFF so it'll also have been seen by mid-October, barely but still. good points! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 (edited) On 10/9/2016 at 8:28 AM, Joel M said: You can make that 11 years since Crash also got released before mid-October. It's a by product of the Oscar ceremony moving from late March to late February that happened in 2003. The first two winners since the date switch were both December movies (ROTK, Million Dollar Baby) but after that all the winners have opened or at least made the festival rounds by mid-October. Billy Lynn opens Oct. 14 at NYFF so it'll also have been seen by mid-October, barely but still. Don't know why you're saying Crash was an October release. It premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival in September 2004, but it didn't get an Oscar qualifying run until May 2005. Edited October 10, 2016 by cannastop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 10 minutes ago, cannastop said: Don't know why you're saying Crash was an October release. It premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival in September 2004, but it didn't get an Oscar qualifying run until May 2005. I know but I just said it was released before mid-October since that is used as a benchmark to support the stat that all recent BP winners have opened early and thus films released later in the year like Silence, Fences or Revenant and Big Short last year can't win anymore. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk is getting decidedly mixed reception via tweets so far. Maybe actual reviews will paint a different picture, but as it stands, it's really tempting to remove it from anything above the tech line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 (edited) 1. La La Land 2. Manchester By The Sea 3. Silence 4. Arrival 5. Fences 6. Jackie 7. Hell or High Water 8. Moonlight Dark horses: Nocturnal Animals, The Lobster, Love & Friendship, Sully, Loving, Lion Edited October 15, 2016 by Jake Gittes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 1 hour ago, Jake Gittes said: 1. La La Land 2. Manchester By The Sea 3. Silence 4. Arrival 5. Fences 6. Jackie 7. Hell or High Water 8. Moonlight Dark horses: Nocturnal Animals, The Lobster, Love & Friendship, Sully, Loving, Lion Sully isn't really a dark horse here, in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 8 minutes ago, cannastop said: Sully isn't really a dark horse here, in my opinion. You think it gets enough #1 votes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 17 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: You think it gets enough #1 votes? It's WB's main push this year (Live By Night looks like a tech push) and it's probably gonna make more than every other movie in the running with the only movies that seem to have potential make more being La La Land and Arrival. I have it in my lineup as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 (edited) 1. La la land 2. Silence 3. Live by Night 4. Fences 5. Jackie 6. Manchester by the Sea 7. Moonlight 8. Arrival 9. Hidden Figures 10. 20th century women alternates- loving, hell or high water Edited October 16, 2016 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 On 5/9/2016 at 2:35 PM, stripe said: After all the (unnecessary and unfair) campaign against lack of diversity I really doubt we are going to have an all white list of nominees. That puts on the radar five films, and I still think at least two of them will make the cut. Oneof these are already out because of its BO weak results and the controversy. Fences. The most classic Oscar contender. Moonlight. The critical darling. Loving. Still in the conversation. Queen of Katwe. Solid critic reactions. Tiff. But really poor BO. Hidden Figures. Besides these films, it looks like there are four strong movies that are already receiving strong WOM before opening. La La Land Arrival Manchester by the sea Jackie Still have to hear things about other possible frontrunner Silence Other possibilities Lion (never ever underestimate Weinstein) Passengers (more like a mainstream choice if it delivers) Nocturnal Animals (with some strong reviews) Rules Don't Apply Allied (doubtful at this moment) Sully (BO success, Eastwood, solid reviews) The Founder (will this open finally?) 20th Century Women (good early reviews) Live by Night A Monster Calls (if it is succesful in December) Out of the race Girl on a train Billy Lynn (too divisive) The birth of a Nation I have bolded the ones I am more confident about at this moment. Updated 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Moonlight is off to an even stronger start than Carol at the BO so I don't think there's much of a reason to worry about it getting pushed out in the end like that movie did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Arrival Fences Jackie La La Land Lion Manchester By-The-Sea Moonlight Silence Sully Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 3 hours ago, filmlover said: Moonlight is off to an even stronger start than Carol at the BO so I don't think there's much of a reason to worry about it getting pushed out in the end like that movie did. I checked the numbers, it seemed it did more on one day what room did entire weekend last year for limited release, I don't know much about limited release numbers, but is very high right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 5 minutes ago, NCsoft said: I checked the numbers, it seemed it did more on one day what room did entire weekend last year for limited release, I don't know much about limited release numbers, but is very high right? It's going for the biggest PTA for limited platform opener since The Revenant. The fact it's looking to join the elite $100K launch club despite having no major names in the cast is pretty astonishing on its own. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKillswitch123 Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 A Monster Calls Arrival Fences Jackie La La Land Live By Night Manchester By The Sea Moonlight Silence Sully My predicted nominees (in Italic the two extras should the Academy bump the number back to 10). DARK HORSES: Hell Or High Water [unlikely, but possible just in case one of the predicted nominees underwhelms alas The Danish Girl]; Hidden Figures [honestly I think it depends more on success than quality]; Lion [would've been a lock if Carol had been nominated this year]; Loving [the likeliest of dark horses, missing by just a beat]; Passengers [just for a mainstream bite, alas Mad Max and The Martian this year] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 I don't think A Monster Calls is coming close to being nominated tbh. Who's gonna see it, after all? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted October 26, 2016 Author Share Posted October 26, 2016 I thought A Monster Calls was a horror comedy when I saw it's title. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 I think Hacksaw Ridge is being underestimated here, especially after Billy Lynn received both mixed reviews to begin with, and lower scores than the WW2 drama. I guess time and box office will tell. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 28 minutes ago, slambros said: I think Hacksaw Ridge is being underestimated here, especially after Billy Lynn received both mixed reviews to begin with, and lower scores than the WW2 drama. I guess time and box office will tell. It really depends on how voters react to Mel Gibson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
