BOT User Tracking 1/22-24 The 5th Wave, The Boy, Dirty Grandpa

[Wrath]

Actuals for last weekend will be up when we have actuals from last weekend. Heh. Probably early this afternoon.

 

Should be another interesting weekend. I think it'll take a while before we stop being spoiled by TFA. I'm going to guess that Deadpool addresses that.

 

Please provide your 1/22 - 24 Opening Weekend, 

 

5th Wave

Boy

Dirty Grandpa

 

Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

5W - $5m

TB - $9m

DG - $13m

[DAJK]

The Boy - $9.7M

5th Wave - $13.1M

Dirty Grandpa - $13.9M

[WrathOfHan]

The Fifth Wave: 13M

Dirty Grandpa: 12M

The Boy: 9M

[department store basement]

Dirty Grandpa - 16.2m

The 5th Wave - 9.8m

The Boy - 6.9m

[Ethan Hunt]

5th Wave- 17M

The Boy- 6M

Dirty Grandpa- 14M

[Blankments]

The 5th Wave - 19.362M

Dirty Grandpa - 11.443M

The Boy - 9.875M

[PanaMovie]

The Boy - 9.09M

The 5th Wave - 13.2M

Dirty Grandpa - 14.8M

[Wrath]

5th Wave 12.8

Boy 7.7

Dirty Grandpa 10.5

[TalismanRing]

5th Wave 11.5

Boy 10.2

Dirty Grandpa 11.3

[CJohn]

The 5th Wave - 20.3M

Dirty Grandpa - 20.5M

The Boy - 9.1M

[BadAtGender]

Dirty Grampa - 13m

The 5th Wave - 11m

The Boy - 8m

[Wrath]

Getting harder to find timely predictions by other sites as ScreenRant failed to post anything, and after a few weeks of consistent predicting, EntertainmentWeekly has failed to post anything for a few weeks in a row. As a result, I've decided to replace EntertainmentWeekly with "Misc" which is basically whoever else I can find who published predictions by Thursday morning. This week, its TheWrap who predicted 10M for all 3.

 

This week, all the predictors seem to have thrown their hands up and said "about 10 for everything" and we actually have the most variety between our predicts for the 3 of anyone. I suppose we're being modestly optimistic on 5th Wave and Dirty Grandpa, though we're just barely the highest predict for 5th Wave and not at all for Dirty Grandpa, and mildly pessimistic for The Boy, but everyone's predicts are in a pretty tight grouping this week. I will say that I'm surprised at how small our ratio (the stndev of our predictions divided by the mean of our predictions) is for Dirty Grandpa and especially The Boy. Usually confidence as a % of the average predict goes *down* as the mean goes down, and 22.79% is really low for a predict under 10M. But with all the other predictors guessing a pretty tight range as well, I suppose its not unreasonable.

 

As usual, I went through the various predicts (15 for everything) and here's what we ended up with:

 

5th Wave

Mean: 12.3M

Median: 12.8M

StnDev: 4.23M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 34.35%

High: 20.3M

Low: 5M

 

BO.com 10.7M

Deadline 10M

ScreenRant.com   

Variety 12M

Misc 10M

 

The Boy

Mean: 8.4M

Median: 9M

StnDev: 1.91M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 22.79%

High: 12M

Low: 4M

 

BO.com 11.8M

Deadline 10M

ScreenRant.com   

Variety 10M

Misc 10M

 

Dirty Grandpa

Mean: 13.6M

Median: 13M

StnDev: 2.93M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 21.47%

High: 20.5M

Low: 9M

 

BO.com 10.8M

Deadline 14M

ScreenRant.com   

Variety 11M

Misc 10M

Edited January 21, 2016 by Wrath

[Wrath]

Turns out, throwing your hands up and saying "10 for everything" would have been a very solid predicting strategy last weekend. Another week where our predicts weren't actually bad in a vacuum, but everyone else nailed it. We had the worst predicts on 5th Wave and The Boy, and second worst on Dirty Grandpa.

 

5th Wave

Prediction: 12.3M +/- 4.23M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 10.3M (off by 2.0M, so 0.48 stndev)

Not great but not bad. Ms Moretz has already appeared in movies grossing $706M in her career, but not much oomph here. Best predict was department store basement at 9.8M.

 

The Boy

Prediction: 8.4M +/- 1.91M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 10.8M (off by 2.4M, so 1.26 stndev)

Disappointingly off. Best predict was by TalismanRing, at 10.2M.

 

Dirty Grandpa

Prediction: 13.6M +/- 2.93M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 11.1M (off by 2.5M, so 0.87 stndev)

Meh, but not terrible. Best predict was, again, by TalismanRing at 10.3M. Wow. That's quite a couple of weeks by TalismanRing.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Wrath