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BOT User Tracking 1/20-31 50 Shades of Black, Finest Hours, Kung Fu Panda 3

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Don't let them in, don't let them see,

What my derby numbers have done to me,

Conceal, don't feel how bad my guesses go,

Actuals are almost in, so soon they'll know...


Let it go, let it go,

Can't hold a straight face anymore,

Let it go, let it go,

Under 50% for Ride Along 2 made me cry.


Here I stand,

In the middle of the forums,

Let the numbers come in,

Being wrong never bothered me anyway!


Alright, dug out of the snow and the box office is perking back up. KFP3. Hmm. Having been trapped in the house with 2 kids, it feels like I should have been subjected to a lot more marketing than this. On the other hand, maybe I'm just missing it.


Please provide your 1/29 - 31 Opening Weekend, 


50 Shades of Black

Finest Hours



Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

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Bah. I wrote my little song, but then forgot to come back Wednesday morning and put in my own predicts like I usually do. Oh well. 


ScreenRant.com has again failed to put out predicts in a timely fashion. Looks like last week they put them out Thursday afternoon/evening some time which doesn't do us much good. If they keep this up another week, I'm finally going to be done with them. The "Misc" spot is going to ShowBuzzDaily this week.


Our predicts are pretty optimistic on 50 Shades and especially Finest Hours (always a little worrying when our lowest predict is higher than BO.com's predict), but just about in the middle on KFP3. Interestingly, our KFP3 predict has a ratio of 9.38%, making it the movie of which we are the most confident in our prediction, ever (prior winner was HT2 which we actually missed by a lot, but we were the closest of the predictors). So, we'll see how it turns out.


As usual, I went through the various predicts (15 for everything, just like last week despite me missing) and here's what we ended up with:


50 Shades of Black

Mean: 12.9M

Median: 12.4M

StnDev: 3.85M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 29.92%

High: 21M

Low: 7M


BO.com 8.5M

Deadline 10.5M


Variety 9.5M

Misc 9.5M


Finest Hours

Mean: 14.6M

Median: 14M

StnDev: 3.36M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 22.99%

High: 21M

Low: 9.7M


BO.com 9.2M

Deadline 10.5M


Variety 10M

Misc 10M


Kung Fu Panda 3

Mean: 49.0M

Median: 49.0M

StnDev: 4.6M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 9.38%

High: 57M

Low: 43M


BO.com 51M

Deadline 40M


Variety 40M

Misc 49.5M

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Darn it. Jane Got a Gun ended up being wide after all. I'd read all along that it was expecting 300-400, and was pretty surprised to see it jump to 1210 theaters as of this morning. Ah well, with the benefit of hindsight I guess I should have included it.

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Tough weekend. We weren't especially close on all 3, although everyone was pretty far off on 50 Shades and KFP3. Predicting the future is a tough business.


50 Shades of Black

Prediction: 12.9M +/- 3.85M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 5.9M (off by 7.0M, so 1.81 stndev)

That's one bad predict. Everyone else missed by a lot, too (the lowest predict was 8.5M), but we were the highest and worst predict. Best predict was our lowest predict: Ethan Hunt at 7.0M.


Finest Hours

Prediction: 14.6M +/- 3.36M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 10.3M (off by 4.3M, so 1.28 stndev)

Not as bad as 50 Shades, but most of the other predictors did a pretty good job on this one. Best predict was MaxMoser3 at 10.8M.


Kung Fu Panda 3

Prediction: 49.0M +/- 4.6M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 41.3M (off by 7.7M, so 1.68 stndev)

By the numbers we did poorly, and Deadline and Variety were quite close, but everyone else was off by more than us so not a bad effort all things considered. Best predict was stripe at 43M.

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