Wrath Posted February 16, 2016 Posted February 16, 2016 (edited) Actuals aren't in for last weekend yet, so who knows? Maybe Deadpool will end up having been massively over-estimated and in come in at like $68M or something. But assuming that's not the case, that was one of the most exciting weekends in almost 2 months! Ok, that's underselling the excitement since Deadpool had the bad luck to open just a couple months after TFA. One could make an argument that Deadpool's OW was actually more exciting than TFA's since it was so incredibly unexpected but I think you have stick with the massive awesomeness TFA. Anyway, it was a cool weekend, unless you're Ben Stiller, then it kind of sucked. Hopefully he caught Deadpool and it took his mind off Zoolander 2 for a couple hours. Please provide your 2/19-21 Opening Weekend predicts for, Race Risen The Witch Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it. Edited February 16, 2016 by Wrath Quote
DAJK Posted February 16, 2016 Posted February 16, 2016 Race - $11.4M Risen - $13.5M The Witch - $8M Quote
Wrath Posted February 16, 2016 Author Posted February 16, 2016 Also, for extra spiciness, this week I'm going to start tweeting our predicts (Mean + StnDev) from the name BOTFPredictor and yes, I've talked to the powers that be and they've given it their approval (to be completely honest, they gave their approval a while ago, I've just been slow). The account has zero followers atm, but we'll work on that. 1 Quote
TheMovieman Posted February 16, 2016 Posted February 16, 2016 (edited) Risen - $14.5M Race - $11.2M The Witch - $5.2M Edited February 16, 2016 by TheMovieman Quote
Blankments Posted February 17, 2016 Posted February 17, 2016 Race - 20.164M Risen - 14.326M The Witch - 6.381M Quote
Eric Dylan Posted February 17, 2016 Posted February 17, 2016 Risen: $17M Race: $12M The Witch: $6M Quote
BourneFan #1 Posted February 17, 2016 Posted February 17, 2016 Risen: $13.4m Race: $12.2m The Witch: $8.6m Quote
DAJK Posted February 17, 2016 Posted February 17, 2016 Race seems to be quite limited around Canada. Looking online I can only find it in the giant mega-plexes, the majority of smaller theatres are playing Risen instead. Quote
Wrath Posted February 17, 2016 Author Posted February 17, 2016 Race 8.9M Risen 12.2M The Witch 10.7M Quote
BadAtGender Posted February 18, 2016 Posted February 18, 2016 Race - 16m Risen - 14m The Witch - 8m Quote
Wrath Posted February 18, 2016 Author Posted February 18, 2016 (edited) Well, I certainly hope that everyone understood that when I wrote that we were "optimistic" about Deadpool, I was clearly misspelling "massively underpredicting". I don't think that'll be the case this week, but last week certainly shows that you never know. I will say the odds of a break-out success seem more limited this week, though The Witch is getting some good buzz. The other predictors are nicely back in order this week, and in fact 5 other folks thoughtfully put out predicts in a timely manner. ShowBuzzDaily seems pretty reliable as long as we're looking for 3-day predicts, and MovieWeb seems to come and go, but is present this week. Overall, we're a little optimistic on Race, very optimistic on Risen, and right in the middle of the pack on The Witch. In a pleasant surprise, ratios are huge on Race and The Witch so even if we're wrong, we can at least say that we weren't entirely confident in our guesses. As usual, I went through the various predicts (12 for everything) and here's what we ended up with: Race Mean: 12.1M Median: 11.55M StnDev: 4.72M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 39.16% High: 20M Low: 5M BO.com 8.3M Deadline 10M MovieWeb 10M ShowBuzzDaily 9M Variety 9M Risen Mean: 16.5M Median: 14.4M StnDev: 4.62M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 27.92% High: 25.5M Low: 12M BO.com 8.5M Deadline 10M MovieWeb 11.5M ShowBuzzDaily 9.5M Variety 10M The Witch Mean: 6.5M Median: 6.7M StnDev: 2.42M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 37.45% High: 10.7M Low: 1.7M BO.com 7M Deadline 5.5M MovieWeb 7.5M ShowBuzzDaily 6.5M Variety 10M Edited February 18, 2016 by Wrath 1 Quote
Wrath Posted February 18, 2016 Author Posted February 18, 2016 Also, I tweeted it from BOTFPredictor, not that anyone saw it. One day. Quote
Wrath Posted February 23, 2016 Author Posted February 23, 2016 (edited) One of our least noteworthy weeks of predicting. We didn't do well, but we didn't do terrible, either in aggregate or on any particular movie. It was the early September of movie predicts. Race Prediction: 12.1M +/- 4.72M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 7.4M (off by 4.7M, so 0.99 stndev) Not great but not awful. We were the most optimistic and the movie came in a little low. Best predict was mahnamahna at 8. Risen Prediction: 16.5M +/- 4.62M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 11.8M (off by 4.7M, so 1.03 stndev) Not great but not awful. We were *really* optimistic so while it beat everyone else's expectations, it still came in well below ours. Best predict was CoolEric258 with our low predict at 12M. The Witch Prediction: 6.5M +/- 2.42M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 8.8M (off by 2.3M, so 0.96 stndev) Not great but not awful. Seems a little repetitive, but when we miss all three new openers by between 0.96 and 1.03 stndev, the comments are all going to sound pretty similar, although the circumstances for all 3 were quite different. This time we were pretty much in the middle of the pack, maybe slightly low, and the movie came in slightly above expectations. BourneFan#1 had the best predict at 8.6M. Edited February 23, 2016 by Wrath Quote
