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BOT User Tracking 2/19-21 Race, Risen, The Witch

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Actuals aren't in for last weekend yet, so who knows? Maybe Deadpool will end up having been massively over-estimated and in come in at like $68M or something.


But assuming that's not the case, that was one of the most exciting weekends in almost 2 months! Ok, that's underselling the excitement since Deadpool had the bad luck to open just a couple months after TFA. One could make an argument that Deadpool's OW was actually more exciting than TFA's since it was so incredibly unexpected but I think you have stick with the massive awesomeness TFA. Anyway, it was a cool weekend, unless you're Ben Stiller, then it kind of sucked. Hopefully he caught Deadpool and it took his mind off Zoolander 2 for a couple hours.


Please provide your 2/19-21 Opening Weekend predicts for, 




The Witch


Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

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Also, for extra spiciness, this week I'm going to start tweeting our predicts (Mean + StnDev) from the name  BOTFPredictor and yes, I've talked to the powers that be and they've given it their approval (to be completely honest, they gave their approval a while ago, I've just been slow). The account has zero followers atm, but we'll work on that.

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Well, I certainly hope that everyone understood that when I wrote that we were "optimistic" about Deadpool, I was clearly misspelling "massively underpredicting". I don't think that'll be the case this week, but last week certainly shows that you never know. I will say the odds of a break-out success seem more limited this week, though The Witch is getting some good buzz.


The other predictors are nicely back in order this week, and in fact 5 other folks thoughtfully put out predicts in a timely manner. ShowBuzzDaily seems pretty reliable as long as we're looking for 3-day predicts, and MovieWeb seems to come and go, but is present this week. Overall, we're a little optimistic on Race, very optimistic on Risen, and right in the middle of the pack on The Witch. In a pleasant surprise, ratios are huge on Race and The Witch so even if we're wrong, we can at least say that we weren't entirely confident in our guesses.


As usual, I went through the various predicts (12 for everything) and here's what we ended up with:



Mean: 12.1M

Median: 11.55M

StnDev: 4.72M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 39.16%

High: 20M

Low: 5M


BO.com 8.3M

Deadline 10M   

MovieWeb 10M

ShowBuzzDaily 9M

Variety 9M




Mean: 16.5M

Median: 14.4M

StnDev: 4.62M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 27.92%

High: 25.5M

Low: 12M


BO.com 8.5M

Deadline 10M   

MovieWeb 11.5M

ShowBuzzDaily 9.5M

Variety 10M


The Witch

Mean: 6.5M

Median: 6.7M

StnDev: 2.42M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 37.45%

High: 10.7M

Low: 1.7M


BO.com 7M

Deadline 5.5M   

MovieWeb 7.5M

ShowBuzzDaily 6.5M

Variety 10M

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One of our least noteworthy weeks of predicting. We didn't do well, but we didn't do terrible, either in aggregate or on any particular movie. It was the early September of movie predicts.



Prediction: 12.1M +/- 4.72M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 7.4M (off by 4.7M, so 0.99 stndev)

Not great but not awful. We were the most optimistic and the movie came in a little low.  Best predict was mahnamahna at 8.



Prediction: 16.5M +/- 4.62M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 11.8M (off by 4.7M, so 1.03 stndev)

Not great but not awful. We were *really* optimistic so while it beat everyone else's expectations, it still came in well below ours. Best predict was CoolEric258 with our low predict at 12M.


The Witch

Prediction: 6.5M +/- 2.42M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 8.8M (off by 2.3M, so 0.96 stndev)

Not great but not awful. Seems a little repetitive, but when we miss all three new openers by between 0.96 and 1.03 stndev, the comments are all going to sound pretty similar, although the circumstances for all 3 were quite different. This time we were pretty much in the middle of the pack, maybe slightly low, and the movie came in slightly above expectations. BourneFan#1 had the best predict at 8.6M.

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