What is a "breakout" movie and how often do they happen?

[grey ghost]

First of all, let's figure out what qualifies as a breakout movie.

 

Then we can count how many movies break out each year.

[filmlover]

American Sniper, Deadpool, The Hangover, 300. Movies that did vastly better than what was initially expected of them.

 

And then of course there's a freak of nature like My Big Fat Greek Wedding. We'll never see that performance duplicated ever again.

[The Futurist]

Breakout from different expectations depending on your perspective or who you ask.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[AniNate]

Good rule of thumb: Any movie whose final HSX value is more than a 10% increase from its value the day before wide release

[Mockingjay Raphael]

basically when a movie that everybody is expecting to bomb ends being a success?

[grey ghost]

I thought a break out is any movie that does waaaaay better than expected.

 

People expected Jurassic World to make 300 m. It made over double that amount.

 

Clearly a break out.

 

Would anyone consider TFA a break out?

 

It did around 50% better than expected.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I thought a break out is any movie that does waaaaay better than expected.

 

People expected Jurassic World to make 300 m. It made over double that amount.

 

Clearly a break out.

 

Would anyone consider TFA a break out?

 

It did around 50% better than expected.

Probably not IMO. Everyone knew it was gonna be big, the question was always "how big?"

[grey ghost]

Okay, I'll start with 2010 to see how many breakouts there are annually.

 

I'd say a movie that doubles what was expected qualifies.

 

Alice In Wonderland - 334 m 

Inception - 292 m

Despicable Me - 251 m

Karate Kid - 176 m

Troy Legacy - 172

True Grit - 171 m

 

Agree or disagree?

 

 

Edited February 19, 2016 by grey ghost

[DAJK]

Just now, grey ghost said:

Okay, I'll start with 2010 to see how many breakouts there are annually.

 

Karate Kid - 176 m

Alice In Wonderland - 334 m

 

Agree or disagree?

Agree

[grey ghost]

2011:

 

The Help - 169 m

Bridesmaids - 169 m

Horrible Bosses - 117 m

 

[grey ghost]

14 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Agree

 

I edited the 2010 list. Can you check it again, please. 

[AniNate]

Using my rule, these movies are "breakouts":

 

Star Wars VII

Jurassic World

Inside Out

The Martian

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation

Pitch Perfect 2

 

And these are "disappointments":

 

Avengers: Age of Ultron

Mockingjay Part 2

SPECTRE

The Good Dinosaur

Tomorrowland

Terminator Genisys

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Here are some few breakouts from 2012:

 

DOM-wise:

 

Ted = $218M

Hunger Games = $408M

Avengers = $623M

Skyfall = $304M

 

Not many expected those movies to do those kinds of numbers.

Edited February 19, 2016 by MrFanaticGuy34

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

2011:

 

The Help - 169 m

Bridesmaids - 169 m

Horrible Bosses - 117 m

 

Bridesmaids was long championed as a breakout hit thanks to all of the amazing reactions at screenings (it premiered at SXSW) that occurred over the months prior to its release. It would've been more shocking if it hadn't been huge.

 

The Help definitely was a surprise hit, though. It opened in the same spot where Julie & Julia and Eat Pray Love found success over the previous two years and wildly surpassed them both.

[75Live]

a breakout movie is a film about this game

 

 

 

 

[AniNate]

21 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Okay, I'll start with 2010 to see how many breakouts there are annually.

 

I'd say a movie that doubles what was expected qualifies.

 

Alice In Wonderland - 334 m 

Inception - 292 m

Despicable Me - 251 m

Karate Kid - 176 m

Troy Legacy - 172

True Grit - 171 m

 

Agree or disagree?

 

 

 

Everything except Tron Legacy, though I wouldn't say Inception doubled expectations. Tron was riding on the 3D hype of Avatar plus a much bigger budget than the original

[filmlover]

I do remember a number of nutty $400M+ predictions for Inception before it opened. The Dark Knight afterglow was strong with that one.

[DAJK]

9 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

I edited the 2010 list. Can you check it again, please. 

Not sure about Tron Legacy but the others I'd say could be considered break outs.

[AniNate]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I do remember a number of nutty $400M+ predictions for Inception before it opened. The Dark Knight afterglow was strong with that one.

 

I think Avatar was a factor too, lots of people going "OMG original sci-fi is back!!!"

[Mockingjay Raphael]

11 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

Using my rule, these movies are "breakouts":

 

Star Wars VII

Jurassic World

Inside Out

The Martian

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation

Pitch Perfect 2

 

And these are "disappointments":

 

Avengers: Age of Ultron

Mockingjay Part 2

SPECTRE

The Good Dinosaur

Tomorrowland

Terminator Genisys

 

the last 3 are not disappointments, they're flops