What is a "breakout" movie and how often do they happen?

[BourneFan #1]

Lucy came out of nowhere. Box Office Mojo said in late April that it would be unreasonable to expect anything close to $100m. It made $463m worldwide on a $40m budget.

[EmpireCity]

23 minutes ago, BourneFan #1 said:

Lucy came out of nowhere. Box Office Mojo said in late April that it would be unreasonable to expect anything close to $100m. It made $463m worldwide on a $40m budget.

 

Agreed.  

[Kalo]

It depends on the expectations, but I think if a movie was already expected to make $200m+ it's not exactly a break-out hit if it goes above that, considering it was already expected to be a "hit" more like exceeding BO expectations, Like TFA or JW. 

 

I would qualify a break-out hit as a movie that had modest to even poor box office expectations that ended up completely exceeding them.   

 

Deadpool about $180m, was pretty much the highest expectations before releasing. completely going to crush them, and when it was first announced people weren't even sure it would top $100m, qualifies it as a breakout hit to me.

 

Daddy's Home making $150m+ that came out of nowhere, a complete breakout

 

Some others:

Straight Outta Compton

Kingsman: The Secret Service

American Sniper 

Guardians of the Galaxy

Gravity

Gone Girl

Neighbors

Ride Along

Lucy

World War Z

The Fault in our Stars

We're the Millers

The Conjuring

Identity Thief

Lone Survivor

Now You See Me

More midrange but still pretty big breakouts:

The Purge 

Warm Bodies

Heaven is for Real

42

The Maze Runner

The Equalizer

War Room

Let's Be Cops

The Other Woman

God's Not Dead

Son of God

The Visit

The Gift

John Wick

[John Marston]

14 minutes ago, Kalo said:

It depends on the expectations, but I think if a movie was already expected to make $200m+ it's not exactly a break-out hit if it goes above that, considering it was already expected to be a "hit" more like exceeding BO expectations, Like TFA or JW. 

 

I would qualify a break-out hit as a movie that had modest to even poor box office expectations that ended up completely exceeding them.   

 

Deadpool about $180m, was pretty much the highest expectations before releasing. completely going to crush them, and when it was first announced people weren't even sure it would top $100m, qualifies it as a breakout hit to me.

 

Daddy's Home making $150m+ that came out of nowhere, a complete breakout

 

Some others:

Straight Outta Compton

Kingsman: The Secret Service

American Sniper 

Guardians of the Galaxy

Gravity

Gone Girl

Neighbors

Ride Along

Lucy

World War Z

The Fault in our Stars

We're the Millers

The Conjuring

Identity Thief

Lone Survivor

Now You See Me

More midrange but still pretty big breakouts:

The Purge 

Warm Bodies

Heaven is for Real

42

The Maze Runner

The Equalizer

War Room

Let's Be Cops

The Other Woman

God's Not Dead

Son of God

The Visit

The Gift

John Wick

 

 

lo, none of these can be called break outs in any shape or form

 

[filmlover]

Given the fact the book was huuggggeee, I really don't think The Fault In Our Stars qualifies as a breakout in any way.

[department store basement]

John Wick certainly wasn't a breakout during its theatrical release. Same with Let's Be Cops.

[Kalo]

38 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

lol, none of these can be called break outs in any shape or form

 

Seriously? okay maybe the equalizer and maze runner are stretching it. but God's not dead was even on IMDB's list of most impressive box office runs of 2014. it made over $60m on a two million dollar budget that's 30x it's budget, for a film that was completely under the radar until it's release with an independent studio behind too. if that's not a breakout hit I don't know what is. same can be said for War Room and even to an extant Son of God. I listed the gift because it was the first release ever for the studio, first time director, and also was pretty under the radar until release and turned into a very profitable film. you seem to be confusing break-out, by meaning it has to make blockbuster numbers in order to be considered that.

Edited February 20, 2016 by Kalo

[Kalo]

22 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Given the fact the book was huuggggeee, I really don't think The Fault In Our Stars qualifies as a breakout in any way.

 

even if it made 25x it's budget and was a small romance story about cancer? a genre that almost never breaks out (especially over $100m) and a huge book does not mean the film will be, I believe the Mortal Instruments, Beautiful Creatures and the Host were pretty big book sellers as well. 

Edited February 20, 2016 by Kalo

[filmlover]

Just now, Kalo said:

 

even if it made 25x it's budget and was a small romance story about cancer? a genre that almost never breaks out (especially over $100m)

It was a rare occurrence for that genre because the novel was so big, and among a particular audience. Usually if a movie is based on a very popular bestseller, the movie is expected to follow suit (even if success doesn't cross mediums all the time). Heaven is for Real even follows under that umbrella because the book was a #1 seller on the New York Times list of all things.

[Kalo]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It was a rare occurrence for that genre because the novel was so big, and among a particular audience. Usually if a movie is based on a very popular bestseller, the movie is expected to follow suit (even if success doesn't cross mediums all the time). Heaven is for Real even follows under that umbrella because the book was a #1 seller on the New York Times list of all things.

 

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/box-office-fault-in-our-stars-aligning-to-be-summer-breakout-hit-1201210255/

 

 

Edited February 20, 2016 by Kalo

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Kalo said:

 

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/box-office-fault-in-our-stars-aligning-to-be-summer-breakout-hit-1201210255/

 

 

By the time the movie opened, everyone knew it was going to be a hit (and it did in line with what most were expecting). I think this thread's definition of "breakout" is regarding movies that really shoot past even the highest expectations like Deadpool has done.

[Kalo]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

By the time the movie opened, everyone knew it was going to be a hit (and it did in line with what most were expecting). I think this thread's definition of "breakout" is regarding movies that really shoot past even the highest expectations like Deadpool has done.

 

pretty much everyone knew Deadpool was going to break-out before it opened to, just not so high. look Fault In Our Stars may not be the biggest breakout hit ever, but to say it was not a break-out in any way is absurd. 

[filmlover]

Even as of late last Thursday, I'm pretty sure not even the most ballsy of predictors were expecting an opening for Deadpool that would wildly surpass what Fifty Shades of Grey debuted to last year

 

I'd say The Fault In Our Stars is more of a breakout hit along the lines of something like The Vow: a movie that was clearly going to be an aberration for its genre from the beginning (BOM predicted $120M for it in their summer forecast that was posted more than a month before it opened and they more or less were on target). They got the result they were hoping for given the rather narrow audience it attracted (the opening weekend audience was 82% female and 79% under 25).

[goldenstate5]

13 hours ago, filmlover said:

Even more impressive when you consider that it was originally supposed to be a limited release only until the insane test screening reactions caused WB to change their plans and give it a prime summer spot.

 

Yeah, I vividly recall this being noted at the time (late 2008/early 2009) as intended by WB to hopefully be a "Little Miss Sunshine"-level indie flick until it had insane advanced screenings and just barreling with hype straight til opening.

 

The attempt of forcing it into being a mega-franchise thru 2 dismal sequels is one of those perfect examples of ruining a brand by twisting it into something it's not while making a crapload of money at the same time.