Jump to content

druv10

SH Predictions 2016

Recommended Posts

With more SH movies being released on a yearly basis, I thought it would be interesting to track and see if a movie overperformed, underperformed or on par with average predictions. 

 

My early predictions for 2016

 

BvS 1.3B

CA:CW 1.6B

XA 1.5B

SS 800M

DS 800M

Link to comment
Share on other sites





3 minutes ago, peludo said:

I am expecting something like that, 800-900. Let's remember that TDKR did 350m and MoS did not reacI 400m. I would be fine with  that range.

TDKR got screwed with really bad release date. BvS has a perfect release date with little competition. As long as WOM is good, It should get close 1B.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



2 minutes ago, druv10 said:

TDKR got screwed with really bad release date. BvS has a perfect release date with little competition. As long as WOM is good, It should get close 1B.

 

 

 

Don't get me wrong. I want it to do big figures, but considering that previous Hollywood films have not made what many thought (MI5, Spectre, Minions, KFP3), I prefer to be cautious. IMHO, to make at least 800 million it would already be fine, maybe not great, but enough for me. 1 billion would already be great.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



1 minute ago, TigerPaw said:

BvS has quite a good release date, I am thinking 1billion Yuan, and hopefully higher than Captain America Civil War. =)

Gambit confirmed to be axed? 

I do not see it. Civil War should make at very least 1.2-1.3 billion and that figure does not seem likely for BvS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

BvS has quite a good release date, I am thinking 1billion Yuan, and hopefully higher than Captain America Civil War. =)

Gambit confirmed to be axed? 

Unlikely BvS beats CW but you never know in BO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



1 hour ago, peludo said:

I do not see it. Civil War should make at very least 1.2-1.3 billion and that figure does not seem likely for BvS.

Haha, guys, be optimistic! If Civil War's release date is bad, BvS can beat it just based on merits of release dates.

Even though the Marvel(Disney) Brand is indeed much stronger, not just in terms of brand awareness, but getting good release dates and securing screens..

Will be an uphill battle for DC and Warner Brothers, but who knows. If BvS explodes during the Qingming holidays, crossing 1 billion total is managable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



BvS 1.3B (its Batman vs Superman with Wonder Woman! Its superheroes like Ant Man that need built up brand recognition, not these!)

CA:CW 1.5B (basically the same as what AOU made, due to market expansion. Not more due to the apparent bad taste left by AOU) 

XA 1.5B (looking to be quite effects heavy, 2012-like in essence due to the apocalypse nature. Plus DOFP had pretty good WOM if I recall correctly)

SS 700-750M (don't really believe in its appeal here)

DS 850M (Cumberbatch is a big thing here plus the magic parts/effects should be pretty cool)

Edited by Infernus
Link to comment
Share on other sites



3 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

Haha, guys, be optimistic! If Civil War's release date is bad, BvS can beat it just based on merits of release dates.

Even though the Marvel(Disney) Brand is indeed much stronger, not just in terms of brand awareness, but getting good release dates and securing screens..

Will be an uphill battle for DC and Warner Brothers, but who knows. If BvS explodes during the Qingming holidays, crossing 1 billion total is managable.

I do not see it. The same year MoS did 395m, Iron Man 3 was making over 700m. Even unknown brands like Guardians of the Galaxy or Ant-man made about 600m. And Avengers already did 1.4 billion last year. Marvel is big in China, quite big. I wish BvS could win, but I think it is quite improbable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites







On Wednesday, March 02, 2016 at 3:55 PM, peludo said:

Batman v Superman: 900m

Civil Wa4 billion

X-Men: 1.2 billion

Suicide Squad: 700m

Doctor Strange: 800m

Thanks. Looks like consensus is CW number 1 followed by XA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



10 hours ago, druv10 said:

Thanks. Looks like consensus is CW number 1 followed by XA.

Well, if you look at the Chinese all time list for SH films, you have this:

 

1. Ultron

2. Iron Man 3

3. Winter Soldier

4. DOFP

 

The trend seems easy to follow :P

Edited by peludo
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



21 hours ago, peludo said:

Well, if you look at the Chinese all time list for SH films, you have this:

 

1. Ultron

2. Iron Man 3

3. Winter Soldier

4. DOFP

 

The trend seems easy to follow :P

True but most people have XA fairly close to CW including Olive and Firedeep. Looking at that list CW should easily win.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



6 hours ago, druv10 said:

True but most people have XA fairly close to CW including Olive and Firedeep. Looking at that list CW should easily win.

I just base my predictions in the past figures. I do not have enough elements to know better the Chinese market. Both Olive and firedeep probably know better than anybody here how Chinese tastes work.

 

Said this, I base my prediction of CW well over X-Men in the Avengers 2.5 concept. In 2014, both Winter Soldier and DOFP were quite close in gross. But the fact that more MCU heroes appear in CA3 can make it closer to Ultron than to CA2. But it is just a personal feeling.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.