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BOT User Tracking 3/11-13 10 Cloverfield Lane, Brothers Grimsby, Perfect Match, Young Messiah

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Zootopia was pretty great. Don't think anything this weekend will match that, but you never know when a breakout will arrive. Plus, this is the first time in months we've seeing something other than 3 new movies.


Please provide your 3/11-13 Opening Weekend predicts for, 


10 Cloverfield Lane

Brothers Grimsby

Perfect Match

Young Messiah


Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

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Well, I managed to get caught up this week, but I didn't quite manage to get back on pace. That should be dealt with next week. So, still no pithy banter or observations.


As usual, I went through the various predicts (15 for 10 Cloverfield, 14 for everything else) and here's what we ended up with:


10 Cloverfield

Mean: 28.3M

Median: 28M

StnDev: 4.21M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 14.87%

High: 35M

Low: 21M


BO.com 24M

Deadline 27.5M   

MovieWeb 26M

ShowBuzzDaily 26M

Variety 20M



Brothers Grimsby

Mean: 10.6M

Median: 11M

StnDev: 2.55M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 24.2%

High: 14M

Low: 6M


BO.com 5.5M

Deadline 7.5M   

MovieWeb 8M

ShowBuzzDaily 7.5M

Variety 8M


Perfect Match

Mean: 4.4M

Median: 3.5M

StnDev: 2.64M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 59.86%

High: 8.7M

Low: 1.8M


BO.com 4.5M

Deadline 5.5M   

MovieWeb 1.2M

ShowBuzzDaily 4.5M

Variety 5M


Young Messiah

Mean: 6.8M

Median: 6.55M

StnDev: 2.95M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 43.45%

High: 12M

Low: 2M


BO.com 6.7M

Deadline 7.5M   

MovieWeb 7.5M

ShowBuzzDaily 8M

Variety 7M

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Its catch-up time!


10 Cloverfield Lane

Prediction: 28.3M +/- 4.21M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 24.7M (off by 3.6M, so 0.86 stndev)

Not great but not awful. That again?!?! Well, that's what we got again. We were the most optimistic and the movie came in a little low. Best predict was 24.7M by me.


Brothers Grimsby

Prediction: 10.6M +/- 2.55M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 3.2M (off by 7.4M, so 2.88 stndev)

Just disastrous. All the predictors were high, but we were wildly optimistic and it came in below even the worst-case expectations. Our best predict was 6M by DamienRoc.


Perfect Match

Prediction: 4.4M +/- 2.64M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 4.3M (off by 0.1M, so 0.04 stndev)

Boom. Fantastic predict. Predicts overall were very solid, but we still managed to be the closest of the bunch. Best predict was Ethan Hunt at 4M.


Young Messiah

Prediction: 6.8M +/- 2.95M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 3.3M (off by 3.5M, so 1.18 stndev)

Not a great predict, but not awful, and almost everyone else was even worse as Young Messiah was the second film of the week to come in at half or less of most predictions. Only BO.com narrowly beat us. Our best predict was a tie between DAJK and CJohn at 2M.

Edited by Wrath
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