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[chasmmi]

1 hour ago, DamienRoc said:

I wonder which film is going to screw up the most people this summer. Warcraft? Ghostbusters? ID4-2?

 

If I was a gambling man, I'd go for Suicide Squad going all Guardians of the Galaxy and make 320M or so to hit top 2/3.

 

Or Finding Dory turning out to be a Cars 2 type sequel and making 'only' high 200s.

 

[WrathOfHan]

3 hours ago, DamienRoc said:

I wonder which film is going to screw up the most people this summer. Warcraft? Ghostbusters? ID4-2?

Alice

[Plain Old Tele]

@chasmmi, I believe you have THE SHALLOWS listed twice for the last preseason question (which group of films will have the lowest gross).

[narniadis]

@The Panda whoops, I misread that portion of the rules thanks for correcting my bad correction

[The Panda]

On March 17, 2016 at 4:26 AM, DamienRoc said:

I wonder which film is going to screw up the most people this summer. Warcraft? Ghostbusters? ID4-2?

 

Im betting sub-150m for Alice so maybe that.  BFG might if it breaks out.  Ghostbusters and Warcraft are both wildcards and could do anything. ID4-2 could easily pull a mini-JW or a T5.  We could all be epicly wrong about Finding Dory.  Neighbors 2 could pull a 22 Jump Street or a Ted 2.  Sausage Party could be a big breakout (so could Pete's Dragon).

 

Anything could happen.

[That One Girl]

2 hours ago, The Panda said:

 

Im betting sub-150m for Alice so maybe that.  BFG might if it breaks out.  Ghostbusters and Warcraft are both wildcards and could do anything. ID4-2 could easily pull a mini-JW or a T5.  We could all be epicly wrong about Finding Dory.  Neighbors 2 could pull a 22 Jump Street or a Ted 2.  Sausage Party could be a big breakout (so could Pete's Dragon).

 

Anything could happen.

 

Neighbors 2 has higher potential for a 22 Jump Street.  Neighbors is arguably more well-liked than Ted and it took Ted 2 3 years, while it took Neighbors 2 only 2.

[chasmmi]

15 hours ago, Telemachos said:

@chasmmi, I believe you have THE SHALLOWS listed twice for the last preseason question (which group of films will have the lowest gross).

 

I noticed that, but then decided that I was okay with it staying the case

[Plain Old Tele]

@chasmmi -- heads up, SAME KIND OF DIFFERENT AS ME has been pushed to next year.

 

http://deadline.com/2016/03/release-dates-for-everybody-wants-some-same-kind-of-different-as-me-shifted-1201722956/

[Avatree]

I can't see a deadline anywhere in your post @chasmmi, what is it? ty  

[The Panda]

This summer is fairly hard.

 

I could see either Civil War or Finding Dory getting the top spot (depending on how well Dory opens and is received and visa versa)

 

All 20 of these movies have a good chance at breaking 100m+ (meaning the "What movies will break 100m" I usually use to make my list wont work)

1.Civil War

2.Angry Birds

3.Neighbors

4.Alice

5.Apocalypse

6.TMNT 2

7.Warcraft

8.Conjuring 2

9.Central Intelligence

10.Dory

11.Independence Day

12.BFG

13.Tarzan

14.The BFG

15.Pets

16.Ghostbusters

17.Ice Age

18.Star Trek

19.Bourne

20.Suicide Squad

(And a few others have an off-chance at it like Sausage Party and Pete's Dragon)

 

The summer is so packed so I think that could make things more unpredictable, under less competition many of these movies I'd predict to make 200m+, but they'll all eat into each other.  That is going to make things fairly unpredictable.  For example, I wouldn't be shocked if say Warcraft, BFG, Ghostbusters or Alice do sub-100m, nor would I be shocked if they did more than 200m.  

 

It will be a fun summer.

[Infernus]

Yeah this summer is wild. Never seen so many potential 200m grossers in the same season. There are 9 movies that have really high chances of crossing 200m and 3 with a very decent chance of doing so. For comparison the most 200m$ grossers ever in a year is 13.

 

Civil War

Alice

Apocalypse

Dory

Independence Day

Pets

Star Trek

Bourne

Suicide Squad

 

TMNT 2

The BFG

Warcraft

 

Kind of worrying, but very interesting, how they'll affect each other. I guess the latecomers might suffer somewhat.

Edited March 19, 2016 by Infernus

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, Infernus said:

Yeah this summer is wild. Never seen so many potential 200m grossers in the same season. There are 9 movies that have really high chances of crossing 200m and 3 with a very decent chance of doing so. For comparison the most 200m$ grossers ever in a year is 13.

 

Civil War

Alice

Apocalypse

Dory

Independence Day

Pets

Star Trek

Bourne

Suicide Squad

 

TMNT 2

The BFG

Warcraft

 

Kind of worrying, but very interesting, how they'll affect each other. I guess the latecomers might suffer somewhat.

I'd put Alice in the other category tbh, I'm expecting a big drop.

[Avatree]

The guarantees for 200M are Civil War, X-Men and Finding Dory, nothing else. The rest are all maybes.

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, Kung Fu Panda Tree said:

The guarantees for 200M are Civil War, X-Men and Finding Dory, nothing else. The rest are all maybes.

CW, Dory, Apocalypse, Pets, and SS are all locked IMO with ID and Jason Bourne as good chances. Star Trek needs better trailers for 200 and Alice likely won't make it.

[Infernus]

5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'd put Alice in the other category tbh, I'm expecting a big drop.

That big?

 

4 hours ago, Kung Fu Panda Tree said:

The guarantees for 200M are Civil War, X-Men and Finding Dory, nothing else. The rest are all maybes.

 

Not even Suicide Squad? But anyway, I agree mostly. But a lot of these have quite better chances of actually doing it than of not doing it. 

Edited March 20, 2016 by Infernus

[chasmmi]

14 hours ago, Telemachos said:

@chasmmi -- heads up, SAME KIND OF DIFFERENT AS ME has been pushed to next year.

 

http://deadline.com/2016/03/release-dates-for-everybody-wants-some-same-kind-of-different-as-me-shifted-1201722956/

 

Stupid Hollywood

 

Thanks, I will change it

[chasmmi]

12 hours ago, Kung Fu Panda Tree said:

I can't see a deadline anywhere in your post @chasmmi, what is it? ty  

 

It's Thursday April 28th at 11:59pm 

[chasmmi]

On ‎16‎/‎03‎/‎2016 at 7:06 AM, The Panda said:

(Just so I can say I was FIRST, I will be doing lots of editing to this rough draft)

 

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Do you want me to move this post to the prediction thread? Or will you redo it yourself later?

[The Panda]

7 hours ago, chasmmi said:

 

Do you want me to move this post to the prediction thread? Or will you redo it yourself later?

 

I guess just move it, I don't have anything I want to change right now.  Thanks!

Edited March 20, 2016 by The Panda

[Ethan Hunt]

On 3/17/2016 at 5:26 AM, DamienRoc said:

I wonder which film is going to screw up the most people this summer. Warcraft? Ghostbusters? ID4-2?

My moneys in people under predicting NYSM2