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BOT User Tracking 3/25 - 27 BvS, Big Fat Greek

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Sigh. Just as I've gotten things back together, my basement floods. Spent the last week dealing with that. Hopefully *this* will be the week I get my act back together. Should be a good week for it.


Please provide your 3/25-27 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

Batman vs Superman

Big Fat Greek Wedding


Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.


Ps - I'll get last week's predicts and results up tomorrow, plus its time to update the data I've posted in case anyone is curious.

Edited by Wrath
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On 3/21/2016 at 4:04 PM, MCKillswitch123 said:

BVS - 178.5M

MBFGW2 - 12.5M


Wishing you a quick recovery of the basement, btw.


Thanks! Basement is almost all better.


Unfortunately, my time of out of the blue improbable distractions is continuing, as Mrs Wrath's 33 year old cousin just had a stroke. She's a doctor in Chicago and hopefully still will be after this is over. We're pretty close and we're considering flying out to visit her. I still remember her in junior high and giving her advice on colleges. Its really bizarre.


PS - I'm going with:


BvS 175

Greek 13.5

Edited by Wrath
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I'm not caught up, but it would have been *criminal* to not post predicts for this week. Wildly low Ratios on both so I hope we're right.


As usual, I went through the various predicts (24 for BvS, 23 for Greek) and here's what we ended up with:



Mean: 173.2M

Median: 175M

StnDev: 15.53M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 8.96%

High: 225M

Low: 140M


BO.com 172M

Deadline 161M   

MovieWeb 159M

ShowBuzzDaily 166M

Variety 150M



Greek Wedding

Mean: 13.5M

Median: 13.5M

StnDev: 2.00M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 14.80%

High: 18M

Low: 10M


BO.com 18.5M


MovieWeb 17.5M

ShowBuzzDaily 17M

Variety 10M

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Annnnnnd I'm now caught up. Just in time for me to leave town for a couple weeks. Sigh.


Batman vs Superman

Prediction: 173.2M +/- 15.53M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 166M (off by 7.2M, so 0.46 stndev)

In theory this was a pretty good predict, but everyone nailed it except Variety who low-balled a bit and really weren't that far off. So we beat them, and BO.com narrowly beat us for 3rd place. We did alright but nothing special.  Best predict was 166.5M by CJohn.


Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

Prediction: 13.5M +/- 2.00M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 17.9M (off by 4.4M, so 2.20 stndev)

Pretty terrible. We went low and it modestly overperformed (at least, imo). We only beat Variety who seriously thought it would tank. The other three were pretty much dead-on. Our best predict was 18M by excel1.

Edited by Wrath
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