Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[ZeeSoh]

11 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Shoudnt JW2 be in theory less presale-heavy than Infinity War? I dont think Jurassic Park has a fanbase like Marvel in China, where nearly all of them rush out on OW - and in IW's case, the fear of spoilers was surely a big reason why many people secured their seats so early.

Yes it will be less PS heavy. JW2 will have much better PS to OD and internal OW multiplier than IW. And as long as ratings are good then its legs will be better than IW too. And if I am not wrong JW2 will have the advantage of a long weekend holiday on its OW too. 

Edited May 28, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Yes it will be less PS heavy. JW2 will have much better PS to OD and internal OW multiplier than IW. And as long as ratings are good then its legs will be better than IW too. And if I am not wrong JW2 will have the advantage of a long weekend holiday on its OW too. 

Saturday to Monday is holiday. Friday could be muted and Sat could bump big for an opener. We could see 4x+ Fri instead of the usual 3.3

Edited May 28, 2018 by POTUS

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Saturday to Monday is holiday. Friday could be muted and Sat could bump big for an opener. We could see 4x+ Fri instead of the usual 3.3

Is Friday like normal, or will it act like a Thursday?

[a2k]

$150+ 4-day, good rating, $300 total would be sweet for FK.

 

$290 China (JW $229), $400 Dom (JW $652), $510 (JW $790) OS-China for $1200 ww is what I hope it manages if not more.

[Thrylos 7]

27 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

$150+ 4-day, good rating, $300 total would be sweet for FK.

 

$290 China (JW $229), $400 Dom (JW $652), $510 (JW $790) OS-China for $1200 ww is what I hope it manages if not more.

Your domestic and os numbers are very conservative. No way it drops that much from the first.

[POTUS 2020]

42 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Is Friday like normal, or will it act like a Thursday?

Friday will be normal as evening will be strong, unlike a Thursday, with the next day off for everyone. However, since this should be more GA, families will wait to see it on Sat to Mon. They love movies on holidays.

 

WC managed to bump 20% and that was PS and OD heavy. Probably wouldn't have bumped on a normal Friday to Saturday( it opened wed, holiday started on thursday).  It made 954m in four days on a 251m OD

 

this is more guideline than a projection to see if it tracks over or under based on how PS are going

 

	JW2							IW
PS 1am	MN	%gain	OD	gain	% gain	Shows		MN	%gain	OD	gain	%gain	Shows
Fri	0.09		0.39			4.8
Sa	0.14	55.6%	1.01	0.62	159.0%	10.6				0.4			6.5
Su	0.16	14.3%	1.18	0.17	16.8%	15.3				1.3	0.9	202.3%	11.0
Mo	0.26	62.5%	1.32	0.14	11.9%	18.0				2.0	0.7	53.8%	16.0
Tu	0.31	19.2%	1.57	0.25	18.9%	22.0				3.3	1.3	62.5%	22.0
We			1.88	0.31	20.0%					4.6	1.4	41.5%	27.9
Th			2.26	0.38	20.0%			5.6		8.5	3.9	84.8%	44.4
Fr			2.71	0.45	20.0%			7.8	14.0%	14.6	6.1	71.8%	54.6
Sa			3.26	0.54	20.0%			9.0	14.7%	18.5	3.9	26.5%	59.2
Su			3.91	0.65	20.0%			10.1	13.2%	22.3	3.8	20.7%	63.0
Mo			4.79	0.88	22.5%			11.0	8.5%	25.6	3.3	14.6%	66.0
Tu			5.86	1.08	22.5%			11.9	8.2%	29.0	3.4	13.5%	69.7
We			7.2	1.3	22.5%			12.8	7.6%	33.7	4.7	16.2%	72.8
Th			8.8	1.6	22.5%			15.0	17.2%	43.1	9.4	27.9%	79.7
Fr			10.8	2.0	22.5%			16.6	10.7%	50.4	7.3	16.9%	86.9
Sa			13.2	2.4	22.5%			17.9	7.8%	58.2	7.8	15.5%	93.1
Su			16.2	3.0	22.5%			19.3	7.8%	65.8	7.6	13.1%	97.0
Mo			20.2	4.0	25.0%			20.9	8.3%	75.3	9.5	14.4%	100.5
Tu			26.3	6.1	30.0%			22.8	9.1%	88.9	13.6	18.1%	112.8
We			34.2	7.9	30.0%			25.8	13.2%	107.4	18.5	20.8%	133.6
Th			47.8	13.7	40.0%			30.6	18.6%	129.0	21.6	20.1%	154.6
Fr(OD)			76.5	28.7	60.0%	170.0		59.5	94.4%	182.0	53.0	41.1%	178.0
OD BO	28.0		229.6		200.0%	175		59.5		387.0		112.6%	182.0
Multi					3.00							2.12
	PS m	OD	OD m	OW	OW m	Total	OD $	OW $	Total $	XR
JW2	3.00	230	3.80	872	2.00	1745	36	136	273	6.40
IW	2.12	387	3.28	1271	1.80	2285	61	201	360	6.35

 

 

Edited May 28, 2018 by POTUS

[Andreas]

17 hours ago, A2k Raptor said:

$150+ 4-day, good rating, $300 total would be sweet for FK.

 

$290 China (JW $229), $400 Dom (JW $652), $510 (JW $790) OS-China for $1200 ww is what I hope it manages if not more.

I think it will definitely make more. With a possible/likely $300M+ China run, $1.5B ww seems pretty reasonable.

[a2k]

2 hours ago, Andreas said:

I think it will definitely make more. With a possible/likely $300M+ China run, $1.5B ww seems pretty reasonable.

i think $1.5b is difficult even with $300 in china. previous did $790 os-china. for 1.5b with $300 in china one can imagine it needs $700 os-c + $500 d + $300 c. 

right now looks like it will be much closer to $400 dom than $500 and os-china reaching the heights of previous one seems tough. read that uk presales were well weaker compared to previous one and many markets could be similar.

 

would be very happy with $425 dom + $600 os-c + $275 c = $1300

[ZeeSoh]

On 4/24/2018 at 10:10 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Infinity War (16 days out)

 

OD PS - 4.59 (+41.2%) (27868 screens)

 

23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Jurassic World 2 (17 days out)

 

Midnight - 306k Yuan

OD - 1.56m (+18.2%) (21736 screens)

Sat - 1.11m

Sun - 680k

 

Jurassic World 2 (16 days out)

 

Midnight - 461k Yuan

OD - 1.92m (+23%) (25532 screens)

Sat - 1.34m

Sun - 843k

[GraceRandolph]

Anything over 1 billion is great for this movie. 

[fabiopazzo2]

So +160M is happening 😊

[ZeeSoh]

On 4/25/2018 at 9:35 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Infinity War (15 days out)

 

Midnight - 5.62m

OD - 8.52m (+85.6%) (44374 screens)

Sat - 4.27m

Sun - 2.35m

 

 

On 5/29/2018 at 9:32 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Jurassic World 2 (16 days out)

 

Midnight - 461k Yuan

OD - 1.92m (+23%) (25532 screens)

Sat - 1.34m

Sun - 843k

 

Jurassic World 2 (15 days out)

 

Midnight - 562k Yuan

OD - 2.38m (+24%) (33430 screens)

Sat - 1.57m

Sun - 982k

 

IW midnight numbers were massive at this point. Exactly 10 times higher than JW. Also the reason for the huge jump for IW on its similar day was that it added about 16k screens and theatre chains like Wanda, etc opened reservations on this day. 

 

JW2 added about 8k screens today

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

 

Jurassic World 2 (15 days out)

 

IW midnight numbers were massive at this point. Exactly 10 times higher than JW. Also the reason for the huge jump for IW on its similar day was that it added about 16k screens and theatre chains like Wanda, etc opened reservations on this day. 

 

 

JW's MN was 8.5m to AoU's  29.7m.  There wont be a MN rush

Over 20% is looking to be the run rate. That puts it at 152m OW with this model. That about falls in line with my pre-presales expectations based on JWs $230m total. Lets see if it holds the line

	JW2							IW
PS 1am	MN	%gain	OD	gain	% gain	Shows		MN	%gain	OD	gain	%gain	Shows
Fri	0.09		0.39			4.8
Sa	0.14	55.6%	1.01	0.62	159.0%	10.6				0.4			6.5
Su	0.16	14.3%	1.18	0.17	16.8%	15.3				1.3	0.9	202.3%	11.0
Mo	0.26	62.5%	1.32	0.14	11.9%	18.0				2.0	0.7	53.8%	16.0
Tu	0.31	19.2%	1.57	0.25	18.9%	22.0				3.3	1.3	62.5%	22.0
We	0.46	48.4%	1.92	0.35	22.3%	25.6				4.6	1.4	41.5%	27.9
Th	0.56	22.6%	2.38	0.46	24.0%	33.4		5.6		8.5	3.9	84.8%	44.4
Fr			2.92	0.54	22.5%			7.8	14.0%	14.6	6.1	71.8%	54.6
Sa			3.57	0.66	22.5%			9.0	14.7%	18.5	3.9	26.5%	59.2
Su			4.38	0.80	22.5%			10.1	13.2%	22.3	3.8	20.7%	63.0
Mo			5.36	0.98	22.5%			11.0	8.5%	25.6	3.3	14.6%	66.0
Tu			6.57	1.21	22.5%			11.9	8.2%	29.0	3.4	13.5%	69.7
We			8.0	1.5	22.5%			12.8	7.6%	33.7	4.7	16.2%	72.8
Th			9.9	1.8	22.5%			15.0	17.2%	43.1	9.4	27.9%	79.7
Fr			12.1	2.2	22.5%			16.6	10.7%	50.4	7.3	16.9%	86.9
Sa			14.8	2.7	22.5%			17.9	7.8%	58.2	7.8	15.5%	93.1
Su			18.1	3.3	22.5%			19.3	7.8%	65.8	7.6	13.1%	97.0
Mo			22.6	4.5	25.0%			20.9	8.3%	75.3	9.5	14.4%	100.5
Tu			29.4	6.8	30.0%			22.8	9.1%	88.9	13.6	18.1%	112.8
We			38.3	8.8	30.0%			25.8	13.2%	107.4	18.5	20.8%	133.6
Th			53.6	15.3	40.0%			30.6	18.6%	129.0	21.6	20.1%	154.6
Fr(OD)			85.7	32.1	60.0%	170.0		59.5	94.4%	182.0	53.0	41.1%	178.0
OD BO	28.0		257.1		200.0%	175		59.5		387.0		112.6%	182.0
Multi					3.00							2.12
	PS m	OD	OD m	OW	OW m	Total	OD $	OW $	Total $	XR
JW2	3.00	257	3.80	977	1.80	1759	40	152	273	6.43
IW	2.12	387	3.28	1271	1.80	2285	61	201	360	6.35

 

 

[abra]

16 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

 

Jurassic World 2 (15 days out)

 

Midnight - 562k Yuan

OD - 2.38m (+24%) (33430 screens)

Sat - 1.57m

Sun - 982k

 

IW midnight numbers were massive at this point. Exactly 10 times higher than JW. Also the reason for the huge jump for IW on its similar day was that it added about 16k screens and theatre chains like Wanda, etc opened reservations on this day. 

 

JW2 added about 8k screens today

Jurassic World 2 (14 days + 7 hours )

 

Midnight - 686k Yuan

OD - 2.93m  (38360 screens)

Sat - 1.82m

Sun - 1.38m

[abra]

How does the JW promotional campaign look like compared to IW ?

[Stewart]

19 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

 

Jurassic World 2 (15 days out)

 

Midnight - 562k Yuan

OD - 2.38m (+24%) (33430 screens)

Sat - 1.57m

Sun - 982k

 

IW midnight numbers were massive at this point. Exactly 10 times higher than JW. Also the reason for the huge jump for IW on its similar day was that it added about 16k screens and theatre chains like Wanda, etc opened reservations on this day. 

 

JW2 added about 8k screens today

Mini explosion today, already up 35% to 3.2m for OD, Sun over 1.5m.

 

Very weird given that only 6k screens have been added

[pepsa]

1 minute ago, feasby007 said:

Mini explosion today, already up 35% to 3.2m for OD, Sun over 1.5m.

 

Very weird given that only 6k screens have been added

This might explode right?

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, pepsa said:

This might explode right?

I'm feeling it will, just waiting for that kick in the presales.

 

I'm seeing it next tuesday in U.K., so can report back. I generally know the big movies that China loves, although take it with a grain of salt.

[Brainbug]

 

 

[Not really]

Is it the good WOM from the Shanghai premiere taking effect? I haven't seen any reactions yet.