ZeeSoh Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 21 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Venom (4 days out) Midnight - 2.02m OD - 13.1m (+27.18%) (69864 shows) Sat - 5.8m Sun - 2.5m Venom (3 days out) Midnight - 2.53m OD - 17.84m (+36.18%) (82969 shows) Sat - 8.25m Sun - 3.32m Big Jump in show count today. It has now almost the same amount of show times as JW2 did 3 days out. PS is still not slowing down and if ratings are even decent then minimum this should do opening would be in the 70's like with MI6. On the other hand if it continues increasing PS like AM2 did from this point and then have typical multi over the weekend then the OW can easily go above 100m. Although I think it will be very frontloaded and wont have typical multi over the weekend so 100m+ is a stretch but 70's or even the 80's at this point seems likely. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 (edited) On 11/5/2018 at 9:42 PM, ZeeSoh said: Venom (3 days out) Midnight - 2.53m OD - 17.84m (+36.18%) (82969 shows) Sat - 8.25m Sun - 3.32m Venom (2 days out) Midnight - 3.32m OD - 24.75m (+38.73%) (102,955 shows) Sat - 12.2m Sun - 4.91m Another good jump for Venom today. That show count is incredible. It has now exceeded that of Jurassic World 2 and only 30k behind Infinity War. It's PS 2 days out has now exceeded Thor Ragnarok's final PS! and very close to the final PS of Justice League and Guardians of the Galaxy 2. OD PS of other movies 2 days out Thor Ragnarok - 7.34m Justice League - 8.43m GoTG2 - 9.3m SMH - 13.75m AM2 - 15.42m BP - 19.2m MI6 - 19.65m CA:CW - 25.4m JW2 - 27.58m Edited November 6, 2018 by ZeeSoh 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 14 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Venom (2 days out) Midnight - 3.32m OD - 24.75m (+38.73%) (102,955 shows) Sat - 12.2m Sun - 4.91m Another good jump for Venom today. That show count is incredible. It has now exceeded that of Jurassic World 2 and only 30k behind Infinity War. It's PS 2 days out has now exceeded Thor Ragnarok's final PS! and very close to the final PS of Justice League and Guardians of the Galaxy 2. OD PS of other movies 2 days out Thor Ragnarok - 7.34m Justice League - 8.43m GoTG2 - 9.3m SMH - 13.75m AM2 - 15.42m BP - 19.2m MI6 - 19.65m CA:CW - 25.4m JW2 - 27.58m Fantastic number no doubt. Still feels like a huge OW and 1,6-1,8 multiplier but enough to insure 700 mill WW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 hours ago, fmpro said: Fantastic number no doubt. Still feels like a huge OW and 1,6-1,8 multiplier but enough to insure 700 mill WW Yeah I think legs will be short on this one. I think there is a rush factor here with the huge presales and with a likely huge show count on OW, most of the demand will be burned off in OW itself. Plus I think Fantastic Beasts 2 is coming a week later which will take most of the screens away. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 (edited) On 11/6/2018 at 10:30 PM, ZeeSoh said: Venom (2 days out) Midnight - 3.32m OD - 24.75m (+38.73%) (102,955 shows) Sat - 12.2m Sun - 4.91m Venom (1 days out) Midnight - 4.90m OD - 34.09m (+37.73%) (126,049 shows) Sat - 17.71m Sun - 6.63m Final PS maybe in the range of 55-60. 60 is where Jurassic World 2 ended up with. Venom is also looking at a show count similar to what JW2 had. But Venom is likely to be more frontloaded on the OW than JW2 so its unlikely it will match JW2's OW. Still thinking mid to high 70's right now like MI6. In other news Fantastic Beasts 2 has started its presales. Fantastic Beasts 2 (8 days out) OD - 586 Yuan (75 shows) Edited November 11, 2018 by ZeeSoh 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 (edited) 13 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Venom (1 days out) Midnight - 4.90m OD - 34.09m (+37.73%) (126,049 shows) Sat - 17.71m Sun - 6.63m Final PS maybe in the range of 55-60. 60 is where Jurassic World 2 ended up with. Venom is also looking at a show count similar to what JW2 had. But Venom is likely to be more frontloaded on the OW than JW2 so its unlikely it will match JW2's OW. Still thinking mid to high 70's right now like MI6. Despite it's front-loaded genre, won't lack of sequelitis help Venom match JW2's legs in the OW? Edited November 8, 2018 by a2k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 (edited) 50% increase with 3 hours to go Venom midnights will win thursday easy. Looks like 13-14 mill. Weekend will be big no doubt Edited November 8, 2018 by fmpro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 (edited) 8 hours ago, a2k said: Despite it's front-loaded genre, won't lack of sequelitis help Venom match JW2's legs in the OW? Perhaps. But if Venom matches JW2’s OW multi it will end up with nearly a 100m OW and that seems unfathomable to me. Why would Venom behave so differently than other SH movies that all generally open in the 50-70’s range? (except the avengers movies) Edited November 8, 2018 by ZeeSoh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Midnights looks more like 14-15 mill now if its strong until the end 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 36 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said: Perhaps. But if Venom matches JW2’s OW multi it will end up with nearly a 100m OW and that seems unfathomable to me. Why would Venom behave so differently than other SH movies that all generally open in the 50-70’s range? (except the avengers movies) cause u said "venom's unlikely to match jw2's ow" i thought there was a slight chance but it's unlikely. i just checked that jw2's ow was a huge $111 and so yeah, it's impossible for venom to come close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 (edited) Fantastic Beasts 2 (7 days out) Midnight - 229k OD - 569k (+1,015,025%) (12419 shows) Sat - 173k Sun - 125k I'll post the final update for Venom in a few hours when the presales stop growing. Edited November 11, 2018 by ZeeSoh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 10:43 PM, ZeeSoh said: Venom (1 days out) Midnight - 4.90m OD - 34.09m (+37.73%) (126,049 shows) Sat - 17.71m Sun - 6.63m Venom (Final) OD - 60.06m (+76.18%) (155,860 shows) Sat - 27.66m Sun - 9.66m Venom ends up with a great total of 60 million which is exactly where JW2 ended up with. It is slightly behind Civil War which ended with 65.8 but ahead of pretty much every other SH movie such as SMH (36m), Black Panther (45.5m) and Ant Man (46.6m). Even its Saturday is ahead of JW2. It's Saturday PS right now is even higher than final OD presales of Thor 3 and Justice League! It's show count is also ahead of pretty much every Hollywood movie in recent time except for Infinity War. It's even ahead of Jurassic World 2 (although slightly). All of this points to a very high opening week. If it follows JW2's OW multi (which itself had a very typical OW multi) then it will have an OW in the 110 million USD range! I am doubtful that Venom will reach such high numbers and I suspect it will be frontloaded despite not being a sequel. Still gonna increase my range from 70's to a range in low to mid 80's. Let's see how the ratings come and how OD behaves. 2 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 JW2 had an 8% currency advantage. If it could match the PSm and the Fm of JW2 it'll just clear $100m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 15,4 mill MN We are in for a fun weekend. Cant wait for that Friday number Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Another pile of crap making big numbers in China... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, efialtes76 said: Another pile of crap making big numbers in China... Big numbers everywhere... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
movieboner Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 c'mon venom show me the money. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 19 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Fantastic Beasts 2 (8 days out) Midnight - 229k OD - 569k (+1,015,025%) (12419 shows) Sat - 173k Sun - 125k I'll post the final update for Venom in a few hours when the presales stop growing. Any comps with the first FB or other recent movies? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 1 hour ago, James said: Any comps with the first FB or other recent movies? FB1 didnt start PS until today in the cycle (at least I have data starting from today). So I will do a comparison with FB1 and some other movies today 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 (edited) On 11/8/2018 at 10:03 PM, ZeeSoh said: Fantastic Beasts 2 (7 days out) Midnight - 229k OD - 569k (+1,015,025%) (12419 shows) Sat - 173k Sun - 125k Fantastic Beasts 2 (6 days out) Midnight - 925k OD - 1.66m (+192%) (21474 shows) Sat - 738k Sun - 412k Too early to draw any conclusions at this point, its only been running for about 2 days now. But below are some OD presales for some recent movies that I have data for. Thor Ragnarok - 1.55m Justice League - 1.5m Fantastic Beasts 1 - 1.1m For now these are the 3 movies that will be most relevant as they were all released around this same date plus they all started their PS runs around similar times as well. Right now midnight number looks quite strong (I heard there are special screenings on Thursday so perhaps that is what is driving the number higher) whereas the other numbers (Sat/Sun/Shows) are around the same as others albeit slightly lower. Edited November 11, 2018 by ZeeSoh 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
