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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Gewara etc)

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On 11/9/2018 at 9:42 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Fantastic Beasts 2 (6 days out)

Midnight - 925k

OD - 1.66m (+192%) (21474 shows)

Sat - 738k

Sun - 412k

Fantastic Beasts 2 (5 days out)

Midnight - 1.18m

OD - 2.75m (+65.66%) (26767 shows)

Sat - 1.27m

Sun - 748k

 

Good jump today for FB2. Its OD presales are higher than some similar movies however it continues to lag behind in Sat/Sun presales as well as show counts for now. 

 

OD presales 6 days out for some other movies

Justice League - 2.34m

Thor Ragnarok - 2.15m

Fantastic Beasts 1 - 1.9m

 

Edited by ZeeSoh
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On 11/10/2018 at 9:51 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Fantastic Beasts 2 (5 days out)

Midnight - 1.18m

OD - 2.75m (+65.66%) (26767 shows)

Sat - 1.27m

Sun - 748k

 

Fantastic Beasts 2 (4 days out)

Midnight - 1.48m

OD - 4.08m (+48.36%) (31260 shows)

Sat - 1.89m

Sun - 1.01m

 

Good jump again for FB2 again. I had made a mistake in earlier posts regarding how I count the days therefore the comparisons I made were a bit incorrect. Below are accurate OD comparisons 4 days out

 

FB1 - 3.9m

JL - 3.51m

Thor 3 - 2.94m

 

So far FB2's daily jumps have been a little higher than FB1. If it continues like that then it might end up with 28m in presales compared to 22m of FB1. 28m in final presale would also be higher than Thor 3 and Justice League and slightly below Guardians of the Galaxy 2.

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23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Fantastic Beasts 2 (4 days out)

Midnight - 1.48m

OD - 4.08m (+48.36%) (31260 shows)

Sat - 1.89m

Sun - 1.01m

 

Fantastic Beasts 2 (3 days out)

Midnight - 1.82m

OD - 6.47m (+58.57%) (41533 shows)

Sat - 2.95m

Sun - 1.40m

 

Good jump again today. Still heading to high 20’s or around 30 PS. Super early guess for OW at this point would be around 50m (+/-2m)

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On 11/11/2018 at 6:08 PM, ZeeSoh said:

 

Fantastic Beasts 2 (4 days out)

Midnight - 1.48m

OD - 4.08m (+48.36%) (31260 shows)

Sat - 1.89m

Sun - 1.01m

 

Good jump again for FB2 again. I had made a mistake in earlier posts regarding how I count the days therefore the comparisons I made were a bit incorrect. Below are accurate OD comparisons 4 days out

 

FB1 - 3.9m

JL - 3.51m

Thor 3 - 2.94m

 

So far FB2's daily jumps have been a little higher than FB1. If it continues like that then it might end up with 28m in presales compared to 22m of FB1. 28m in final presale would also be higher than Thor 3 and Justice League and slightly below Guardians of the Galaxy 2.

FB1 ended with 20.95m in presales.

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On 11/23/2016 at 11:05 PM, POTUS said:

That's 11.6m yuan for midnight and OD combined that Olive was referring to.

 

OD PS at 12.5m now, that will increase by 75 -100% by Friday morning. Then do 2.5 -3x PS, more if it has great WoM.

60-80m/$9-12m OD  is the expected range. 100m/$15m possible if it catches on.

               CA3.                    XMA                   FB                  

1am  MN      OD               OD                MN     OD         

Th      0.8     2.4                2.3             

Fr      1.2     3.6 +50%      3.2 +39%     0.2     1.1

SA     1.8     6.2 +72%      4.2 +31%     0.4     1.9 +73%

Su     2.1     8.1 +31%      4.9 +16%     0.5     2.8 +47%

Mo    2.8.   11.9 +47%      6.2 +27%    0.6     3.9 +39%

Tu     3.5    16.3 +37%      9.0 +45%    0.7     5.4 +38%

We    4.8    25.4 +56%    11.1 +23%    0.9     7.9 +46%

Th     6.4    37.9 +50%    17.8 +60%    1.1   12.5 +52%

OD   18.1   65.8 +75%    31.6 +78%    2.6   21.7 +74%

                                                    

CA3 OD Fri 5/6

OD Total  181m           x PS          2.75x  
OW Total 625m           Total       1245m

OD  Multi 6.88              OW Multi  1.99x

2.75 PS multi is in line with the norm for tentpoles

 

XMA OD Fri 6/3

OD Total   110m           x PS          3.48x
OW Total  384m           Total         803m

OD  Multi   7.3x            OW Multi   2.09x

3.48 PS multi is high due to weak PS, VG WOM and strong walk ups

 

43 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

FB1 ended with 20.95m in presales.

21.7 but I rounded it off to 22. I know Olive had it at 20.95 but I think that was the number at midnight. The number above is several hours after midnight as presales keeps increasing well into the night. This is also why when I report the final PS number I dont report it at midnight (like I do for other days). I wait till a few hours after

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23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Fantastic Beasts 2 (3 days out)

Midnight - 1.82m

OD - 6.47m (+58.57%) (41533 shows)

Sat - 2.95m

Sun - 1.40m

 

Fantastic Beasts 2 (2 days out)

Midnight - 2.15m

OD - 9.71m (+50.07%) (58419 shows)

Sat - 4.56m

Sun - 2.03m

 

Some OD presales comparisons 2 days out

Justice League - 8.34

Thor Ragnarok - 7.34

Fantastic Beasts 1 - 7.9

 

It's leading all these 3 movies but that does not necessarily mean much. Thor 3 for example was behind at this point but ended up with the highest OW amongst these movies. So reception matters a lot. 

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2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Fantastic Beasts 2 (2 days out)

Midnight - 2.15m

OD - 9.71m (+50.07%) (58419 shows)

Sat - 4.56m

Sun - 2.03m

 

Some OD presales comparisons 2 days out

Justice League - 8.34

Thor Ragnarok - 7.34

Fantastic Beasts 1 - 7.9

 

It's leading all these 3 movies but that does not necessarily mean much. Thor 3 for example was behind at this point but ended up with the highest OW amongst these movies. So reception matters a lot. 

Although +17k is a good jump for showcount, still feel like it's lagging behind

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5 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Although +17k is a good jump for showcount, still feel like it's lagging behind

It's actually caught up with the other 3 movies that I was comparing it with (it was lagging till yesterday in show counts). But compared to some recent movies it is lagging behind. For example both MI6 and Ant Man 2 were around 79k whereas Venom was at 103k. I suspect the unexpected success of Venom is affecting how many screens FB2 is getting and will get

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Fb1's PSM was 3.45 to bring in a 75,m OD.  Its possible the PSm drops for a sequel and/or bad reviews

FB2 PS 20% over FB2 but that could be negated by a lower PSm.  $40-50m OW incoming, matching or beating FB for OW.   FB had a 2.1 OWm. The total could fall short if its not received well and competition from Vm

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23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Fantastic Beasts 2 (2 days out)

Midnight - 2.15m

OD - 9.71m (+50.07%) (58419 shows)

Sat - 4.56m

Sun - 2.03m

 

Fantastic Beasts 2 (1 days out)

Midnight - 2.70m

OD - 15.22m (+56.75%) (84894 shows)

Sat - 7.62m

Sun - 3.05m

 

Heading I think to a 26-29m Yuan final PS. From there if it has typical OW multi then it will get to 46-48m USD opening weekend. It remains to be seen how much Venom will affect this but there will surely be an effect. If not for Venom this could have easily crossed 50m I think. Venom is already creeping up in terms of show count. Its already at 60k and that number will definitely increase. IF ratings for FB2 are not that great then perhaps we could see Venom having more shows on Sat/Sun than FB2

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On 11/14/2018 at 9:38 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Fantastic Beasts 2 (1 days out)

Midnight - 2.70m

OD - 15.22m (+56.75%) (84894 shows)

Sat - 7.62m

Sun - 3.05m

 

Fantastic Beasts 2 (Final)

OD - 29.23m (+92%) (121,037 shows)

Sat - 14.22m

Sun - 5.46m

 

As I expected yesterday, final PS is at 29m. Typical multi from here would lead to an opening around 50-51m. Maoyan also expects around 50m opening. However with Venom overperforming I am not sure if that will happen. I think Venom could possibly overtake FB2 on Saturday and Sunday as show times for both are quite close and Venom could overtake FB2 in show times. 

 

Some other comparisons for final OD PS in yuan are below

Ant Man 2 - 46.6m (141,372 shows)

The Mummy - 31.19m

GotG 2 - 28.45m

Justice League - 26m (111,428 shows)

Thor Ragnarok - 24.2m

 

Right now I am gonna stick to what I said yesterday and say guess an OW in the 46-48m range. I'll update it when ratings and mid day Friday numbers come through

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