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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Gewara etc)

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PR2 PS around 5.36 right now which is an increase of about 28% from yesterday. Another decent increase today. It is still running behind BP, which was at 6.82m at 6 days out, but if it continues showing such good increases it could overtake BP in presales by the end 

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Pacific Rim 5 days out

 

OD PS - 6.83 (+27.4%)

 

Good jump again. Still increasing more per day than BP

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On 3/17/2018 at 10:14 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Pacific Rim 5 days out

 

OD PS - 6.83 (+27.4%)

 

Good jump again. Still increasing more per day than BP

 

Pacific Rim 4 days out

 

OD PS - 8.81 (+29%)

 

Should start accelerating tomorrow. 

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13 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Pacific Rim 4 days out

 

OD PS - 8.81 (+29%)

 

Should start accelerating tomorrow. 

yup. If its up over 35% tomorrow it should go 45, 50 75% on T-Th and get into the 40s. Whether it does 3 or 5x's PS is a mystery at this point.

$60-100m OW. Now I sound like DHD.  :P

lets assume the norms- 40m PS at 4x and Fri multi at 3x.  480m/$75m OW- more or less- always the case

 

How's you're drinking problem?

I don't drink any more

Oh You quit?

No, I don't drink any less either

 

 

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On 3/18/2018 at 10:26 PM, ZeeSoh said:

 

Pacific Rim 4 days out

 

OD PS - 8.81 (+29%)

 

Should start accelerating tomorrow. 

 

Pacific Rim 3 days out

 

OD PS - 12.37 (+40.4%)

 

Same rise that BP had. Now BP had nearly 40% rise for the next 2 days as well. PR2 should have better rise than that. 

It’s still running behind BP by about 1.5 million but should overtake it tomorrow or the day after and end up with higher presales

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14 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

It’s still running behind BP by about 1.5 million but should overtake it tomorrow or the day after and end up with higher presales

I am reading this right if it feel like it is possible it will not grew much if at all from the first 112m take in 2013 ? (need about 120m just to do the same), except if it get good legs ?

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I am reading this right if it feel like it is possible it will not grew much if at all from the first 112m take in 2013 ? (need about 120m just to do the same), except if it get good legs ?

All depends on ratings and WOM. Using typical multipliers BP should have opened to 80-85m on opening week but it didnt due to low ratings. This is heading to the same or slightly higher final PS as BP so if the ratings are good it could have an opening as high as 85 million. From there even weak legs gets it to 130 at least. But if the ratings are as bad as BP then yeah it will probably end up about the same as the first one. 

 

I doubt the ratings will be as low as BP so it should do relatively well IMO

Edited by ZeeSoh
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Do someone know if PR 2 is considered a local production and treated differently in term of marketing and retention rate for the distributor ?

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PR2 will bump 50% to 18m+.  At least 50% tomorrow and 75% on Thur takes close to 50m in PS. 

A 600m/$95m+ weekend possible with the standard 12x PS for the weekend. 

BP did a little less than 9x, the lowest in a year, TR did 16x, the highest ever.

 

Upping the floor but still keeping a broad range. $70-100m  

Nothing is listed for the following Friday yet. It could have a decent 2nd weekend with a good rating and do 2x OW

For now it looks like 1B/$156m has a shot

 

 

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I'm quite surprised if it will only do 150M. Really thought it would jump up from the first one especially as it's been 5 years. Hope it does more but if its presales are behind Black Panther that speaks for itself.

 

Also if it only does 150M in China that conclusively kills this franchise.

 

On the other hand, this Scott Mendelsohn piece makes a good point that it could spark more sequels from failed first movies - https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/03/15/box-office-pacific-rim-uprising-is-a-test-case-for-questionable-sequels/#1a7d769251f1

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Treetanic said:

Also if it only does 150M in China that conclusively kills this franchise.

 

It is a bit of a deception yes, 5 year's.... Biggest Chinese movie were doing around 200m max in 2013 and now some seem to be able to do 400/500m quite often even reached over 800m, if Hollywood franchise would have followed that growth it would have been the game changer some predicted.... 

 

But if it is considered a Wanda Chinese production and getting around 43% retention rate from that 150M it is quite a jump in some ways from the previous entry I could imagine.

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also chinese productions seem to have better screen holds and dont drop as sharply. I assumed it was considered a CHinese production but not sure.

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23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Pacific Rim 3 days out

 

OD PS - 12.37 (+40.4%)

 

Same rise that BP had. Now BP had nearly 40% rise for the next 2 days as well. PR2 should have better rise than that. 

It’s still running behind BP by about 1.5 million but should overtake it tomorrow or the day after and end up with higher presales

 

Pacific Rim 2 days out

 

OD PS - 17.3 (+40%)

 

Similar rise as that of BP. BP had another 40% rise and then about 60-65%. PR2 should do slightly better than that

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22 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Pacific Rim 2 days out

 

OD PS - 17.3 (+40%)

 

Similar rise as that of BP. BP had another 40% rise and then about 60-65%. PR2 should do slightly better than that

 

Pacific Rim 1 days out

 

OD PS - 25 (+44.5%)

 

Very similar rise to BP but still behind a bit. I think it will rise about 70-80% tomorrow and get to about 45 something PS. Typical multi then gets it to about $85m USD OW. But it all depends on ratings at this point. But it should have at least 70m OW. 

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Rampage (7 days before release)

 

OD PS - 0.59m Yuan (21k shows listed)

 

That is incredibly weak presale for Rampage. I dont know when presales started but it has about 10k shows less listed than Black Panther. But even then the  number is bad. 

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8 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Rampage (7 days before release)

 

OD PS - 0.59m Yuan (21k shows listed)

 

That is incredibly weak presale for Rampage. I dont know when presales started but it has about 10k shows less listed than Black Panther. But even then the  number is bad. 

Its been a few days. They just ramped up shows in the last 24 hours however.  Annihilation continues to have double the PS with 1/2 the shows and is on track for 10m+ in PS for a potential $20m+ weekend. Give Rampage another 2 days to gauge the trend, given that the theaters have allotted more shows maybe PS will take off 

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21 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Rampage (7 days before release)

 

OD PS - 0.59m Yuan (21k shows listed)

 

That is incredibly weak presale for Rampage. I dont know when presales started but it has about 10k shows less listed than Black Panther. But even then the  number is bad. 

6 days out and PS is upto 1m Yuan. Only added about 4k screens today. 69% rise today which is good but when the PS is this small it isnt hard to increase this much. 

 

Annihilation at 1.5m PS with less than half of the screens of Rampage. 

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I really thought Rampage was a China friendly flick ?!?

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Don’t worry, Annihilation won’t beat Rampage. 

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