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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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8 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

In this moment with 20 days to go what is your prediction for the OW in China? 


I'm no Chinese BO expert but Ultron made $155 million in 2015. Looking at that and factoring in other variables like market expansion, I'm going $180 million. 

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13 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:


I'm no Chinese BO expert but Ultron made $155 million in 2015. Looking at that and factoring in other variables like market expansion, I'm going $180 million. 

Ultron opend on a tuesday and had a 6 day OW. Very hard to compare

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17 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Ultron opend on a tuesday and had a 6 day OW. Very hard to compare


Didn't know that :/

Well, we will see I guess. It's final run was $240 million. US blockbusters tend to do about half of there total during there 3 day opening right? If it does $300 million total then it could do $150 million OW?

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7 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:


Didn't know that :/

Well, we will see I guess. It's final run was $240 million. US blockbusters tend to do about half of there total during there 3 day opening right? If it does $300 million total then it could do $150 million OW?

Dunno.. Marvel is not Furious franchise in China. I think depends of the quality of the film 

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17 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:


Didn't know that :/

Well, we will see I guess. It's final run was $240 million. US blockbusters tend to do about half of there total during there 3 day opening right? If it does $300 million total then it could do $150 million OW?

Its all about releasedates and WOM. The releasedate is only okay. 

I could see 135-155 mill OW and everthing from 1,6-2,1 multiplier

 

So the range is 225(if WOM is horrible) to 325(9+ rating at maoyan) IMO

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1 hour ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

In this moment with 20 days to go what is your prediction for the OW in China? 

Very hard to tell this far out as to how it will play out. @POTUS is far more knowledgeable about the Chinese BO so I’ll just wait for his word. But an opening around 150 would be my guess at this point

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12 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Very hard to tell this far out as to how it will play out. @POTUS is far more knowledgeable about the Chinese BO so I’ll just wait for his word. But an opening around 150 would be my guess at this point

IW PS at 2.02m +50% Mon 1am.

150m is my guess right now. I can give a guestimate from PS in a few days.

We need to see if it runs at 15, 20, or 25% daily after it settles in

Even then the PS multi has been all over the place with a low of 2.3 for FF8 and as high as 7.  I'll go with 3.3 probably

Edited by POTUS
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3m at 9pm for a 50% increase so far. Great increase for today and I suspect it will rise well the next few days after the reviews hit and numbers start coming from other countries and dom opening weekend but especially if more screens are added steadily. 

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2 hours ago, bangbingchan said:

US and them presale is nearly 50M.

still 5 days out.:jeb!:

Even it's frontloads.$300M is coming.

I dont know. Not if dailies crash out of the gate. PS heading to 125m but may not do more than 2x. 250m/$40m OD and could do less than 5x that. $200m unless it holds better than the usual YA

 

IW PS at 3.25 1am Tues. up 62%

AoU had 81k shows on a 185k OD Tuesday

IW will probably have double the shows on an OD Friday.  FF8 had 165k shows

370m/$60m OD/ 1140m/181m OW will be possible if the fanbase  has expanded a little but could have just a 1.6 OW multi and a $290m total

The front load has been getting larger with fan base tent poles. This could set a new bar.

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1 hour ago, POTUS said:

I dont know. Not if dailies crash out of the gate. PS heading to 125m but may not do more than 2x. 250m/$40m OD and could do less than 5x that. $200m unless it holds better than the usual YA

 

IW PS at 3.25 1am Tues. up 62%

AoU had 81k shows on a 185k OD Tuesday

IW will probably have double the shows on an OD Friday.  FF8 had 165k shows

370m/$60m OD/ 1140m/181m OW will be possible if the fanbase  has expanded a little but could have just a 1.6 OW multi and a $290m total

The front load has been getting larger with fan base tent poles. This could set a new bar.

 

A 9,2 on Maoyan could fix that multi

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13 hours ago, POTUS said:

I dont know. Not if dailies crash out of the gate. PS heading to 125m but may not do more than 2x. 250m/$40m OD and could do less than 5x that. $200m unless it holds better than the usual YA

 

US and Them is not just a YA film.it's focus on story of migrant worker in big city.it's a nostalgic film.This may have potential to explode in big city and small village.Screen and preview WoM is excellent So far.Guess GA score Douban 7+ Maoyan 9+

It is So Young(2013) +Ex3 this year.

Presale and Buzz is So strong

So Young is top3 in 2013.Ex3 is top4 in 2017.

Edited by bangbingchan
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